SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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What a bizarre scenario this would be. Reminds me of that 2010 storm where we snowed and SNE rained
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Source region is cold despite +EPO You don't need Arctic air for snow. Blocking showing up late November into December is great for snow chances. You do want some spikes in western ridging though. A +EPO with a western trough is no bueno.
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Models seeing the -NAO is a very good sign though. That'll guarantee some snowy chances at least.
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Yeah it's a nice look. Love how's it's been trending in that direction too.
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See you during the next warm-up
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He's like the anti-JB. He'll post anything to force a warm/snow-free winter narrative. But sure if you go warm/snow-free every winter you'll be right eventually and yes pretty much any winter these days will be AN temp wise...no big surprise there.
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Big gusts coming in last half hour near Somerset
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Nickel sized hail for me. Never seen this before
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Looking to see how warm we get ahead of this. Usually warmer temps imply stronger mixing. Already 59F
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Important to watch the western US. You could have lower pressures near Alaska and still get cold if there's ridging out west. You'll rarely get a good pacific in a Nina but PNA could still pop from time to time.
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Yeah the source region looks pretty cold for latter November into December. That automatically makes it more likely that some of that cold will drain south. Personally I would bet on a near normal if not colder early winter.
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A warm, dry winter for the entire country would be a very good thing this year given inflation/gas costs. However usually when everyone says that'll be the result, the opposite plays out which is why I'm very skeptical of these long range forecasts. The rapidly changing climate has caused Ninas/Ninos to decouple from themselves and that's something that could happen again this year.
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Let's cancel winter now then and enjoy the warm weather & lower heating costs.
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If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. December is our best bet. Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year.
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Big diurnal swing days. Hit 37F this morning and should see 70F today. Lack of rain and full sunshine means temps could easily over perform.
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Already down to 31F. First 20s of the season coming up will kill everything left.
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How was December in those years? I forget.
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It could show an ideal pattern and you'd say it was inaccurate. Your warm bias is overplayed. Yes AN is favored obviously but I don't think it'll be another 11/12 or 19/20
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That's crazy how some barely hit 32 or not at all. Many places in Jersey were in the 20s this morning. Hit 30F myself.
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Friday night will be the coldest of this stretch. Widespread 20s likely under ideal raditional cooling.
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First freeze of the season. 31F Now 30F just after sunrise.
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Already down to 37F
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34F this morning. Excellent raditional cooling tonight should easily get us to freezing.
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Sounds like rocket fuel for another 30-40"+ snowstorm nearby. All you need is a favorable blocking interval which I think is likely this season and boom.
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Without blocking it's gonna get warm. The west is getting bombarded with troughs. I don't mind it though. By November warm is 60s which is lovely. Climo doesn't favor snow anyway.
