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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    What do you think this means. Because we seem to be getting the typical Jan/Feb Nina climo now. However this suggests the rest of winter won't play out like a typical Nina.
  2. SnoSki14
    It's gonna take a while before you see its effects. Most of New England is in a prime spot for it.
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah I wish. Somehow I don't see anything like that play out. At this point it's a struggle to even get a couple BN days strung together. 55-61-57 next 3 days in north Jersey.
  4. SnoSki14
    Yeah good trends last night. Blocking in AO/NAO regions is quite good. Just need that to translate out west some more. Meanwhile another 55+ day on tap with 60+ tomorrow.
  5. SnoSki14
    Strong gradient at around 41N through the 24th. I do see ensembles are moving the blocking further west which would improve the Pacific pattern too. If this is true then it'll open the door for something from around Christmas to early Jan.
  6. SnoSki14
    Until the PNA improves we're cooked. Euro/EPS barely give us BN temps as most of the cold is out west.
  7. SnoSki14
    BTW MJO is now expected to halt in phase 7 so lagging effects do spell a period of colder weather & maybe snows after December 20th. It's probably a short window though, about 2 weeks before a more unfavorable pattern develops again. If it does manage to get into 8-1 then January will be cooler but think that's unlikely right now.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'd take the PNA/EPO 10x over the NAO
  9. SnoSki14
    Which is why I can't see us doing well in this pattern. That -PNA is a death knell for this time of year. -PNA is better for us after mid Feb. when wavelengths change. S/C New England should do well though.
  10. SnoSki14
    EPS looked better tonight. WPO & AO/NAO looked good however I would still rather be in New England than here for snows/cold.
  11. SnoSki14
    The -PNA will be costly unless the Atlantic blocking is very strong. As soon as ensembles back off on the blocking the SE ridge will rage. You can try to put lipstick on a pig but things still look crappy. MJO also showing signs of halting in phase 7.
  12. SnoSki14
    Pattern still looks like crap. Basically March like all winter long. Better for New England
  13. SnoSki14
    Agree this time. Pattern looks like trash. Maybe it won't be a blowtorch but it's definitely not a snowy pattern
  14. SnoSki14
    The western trough will be a problem until wavelengths change. Wouldn't be surprised if March ends up as the coldest/snowiest month.
  15. SnoSki14
    Nothing Nina about this pattern.
  16. SnoSki14
    Tornado threat later on?
  17. SnoSki14
    If you have to compare it to December 2015 a +11 month then you've already lost the argument.
  18. SnoSki14
    I'm already at 60F, the warm temps are coming
  19. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't bet the farm on that.
  20. SnoSki14
    It's not gonna snow right now so enjoy the warm weather. Don't worry too much about the long range.
  21. SnoSki14
    We'll get another tornado before we see more snow
  22. SnoSki14
    It'll feel like the Arctic compared to them. Wouldn't be shocked to see some 80F readings there.
  23. SnoSki14
    LR still looks like crap. The only good thing is the very positive EPO goes away. Strong Atlantic blocking would do wonders in this pattern. Maybe it won't be a 2015 blowtorch but it still sucks. I think we'll get a favorable period in Jan and then March like 2018 though nowhere as severe.
  24. SnoSki14
    Not as blow torchy either. We sort of get back fronted as the main heat surge focuses towards the Midwest. Certainly a possibility.
  25. SnoSki14
    We've seen time and time again how the supposed ENSO state has not played ball with other factors aka deconstructive interference. Case in point December should theoretically be the coldest month of a Nina but clearly that won't be the case. We'll def have to keep an eye on the EPO/MJO moving forward because they could fail to materialize in a favorable way as we've seen time and time again.
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