SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Even if the storm track is good the airmass is terrible especially where you live. Pacific air won't be enough. The Atlantic blocking also isn't ideal with it poking pretty far south leading to AN temps.
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Or if this look maintains throughout the winter we'll get our opportunities in the back half like in 2013 and 1969 when a bad pacific won't matter as much.
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Until we get out of this Nina state that's likely the theme. I do think Atlantic blocking will be a bit better this year though.
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Your Dec/Jan calls are looking pretty good. The blocking we're getting now isn't likely to manifest into anything good until either very late this month and most likely January.
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Yeah it sucks right now. My initial idea of waiting til January is likely to pan out. That's been the theme. Pacific is garbage
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The run to run changes are laughably bad
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I suspect this will be a theme in the future
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Atlantic blocking is remarkably stable and long lasting So it's more or less a waiting game for things to improve our west. So I'm guessing the system on the 9th gets shredded like Euro & CMC show. Looks like GFS is trending in that direction but it's still something to watch
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This is the dreaded pacific puke pattern in a nutshell. Stormy but never cold enough for snow and not pleasant enough to enjoy either. It's basically March weather all winter. This is still just a forecast though. No guarantee it plays out that way either
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Not much frozen in this pattern. It's a stormy but mild look as pacific jet brings the storms, the block helps to amplify them but there's no cold air to be found.
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I don't think we're gonna get a good pacific this season. The best we can hope for is that it's not overly hostile.
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Okay then let me clarify. For areas south we need the +PNA or a neutral PNA in December Bluewave made it very clear. Rockies ridge is a must.
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You need a good pacific in December to benefit. Current signs point to better conditions by mid month however we need to see this hold into the medium term range. Pacific particularly PNA is less important Jan-March.
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That clown JB always uses this model
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Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south
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Nah that's nonsense
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We've had a lot more luck in January than December and it looks like that will be the case again. January may actually turn out really well if the blocking sticks around and we don't have to rely on the Pacific as much
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The wavering from the GFS has been ridiculous. I don't know what they're doing
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Pacific becomes a little more favorable and everything trends a lot better. That'll be key over next 10 days
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Euro looks so much better with the blocking than GFS.
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Maybe time to close the blinds then til mid December Strong Atlantic blocking with a bad pacific isn't good though. That causes SE ridge & blocking up north to link up. Don't like seeing the GEFS keep delaying the favorable pattern.
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I guess that's a possibility then.
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Rare -NAO/AO with above average temps. That's definitely a result of agw warming up sea surface temperatures It doesn't help that you have a crappy pacific which is far more important than a -NAO.
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Given the longevity of this block that's probably the option to go with.
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Looks like this will get kind of wacky initially under the blocking pattern until it stabilizes. GEFS/EPS/GEPS eventually get onboard with a more typical strong -NAO/AO look. Before that there's this SWFE potential as cold high bleeds in while shortwave ejects. PA gets 6-12" out of it
