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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Highly unusual and convoluted pattern that will wreck havoc on the models. Models still attempting the phase shortwaves for 22nd which will have implications for future events. Strong -PNA coupled with strong Atlantic blocking. Everything is destructively interfering with one another. Now if this were mid-late Feb or March we would be sitting pretty given wavelength changes but as it stands it's one big mess.
  2. SnoSki14
    Oh what a surprise that a big -PNA isn't a good thing in late Dec/Jan
  3. SnoSki14
    Assuming this pattern locks in I'm expecting a very cold & snowy March.
  4. SnoSki14
    We had December highs in the teens back in the 2000s. Now getting below 40F is difficult.
  5. SnoSki14
    I'll take a good pacific over Atlantic blocking any day. That's why 13/14 & 14/15 were some of my favorite winters ever.
  6. SnoSki14
    On its face no December snowfall in a Nina is bad but we've seen a lot of things that we've never had before lately. Maybe this could be the first time we see 30"+ after 0" in December in a Nina.
  7. SnoSki14
    Theres plenty of cold air around but it's focused out west. Canada is very cold as well. Places that don't normally get snow out west will get plenty of it. Seattle & Vancouver and most of BC will see an unusual amount of cold & snow.
  8. SnoSki14
    Hopefully that's what happens. However those crazy negative anomalies off the west coast make me think otherwise. I am getting 2007-2008 vibes though. Central/northern New England will score huge in this pattern. SNE is on the fence. Anyone further south is cooked if things don't improve out west.
  9. SnoSki14
    A negative NAO/AO combined with a strongly negative PNA/PDO in late December/January will lead to a gradient pattern that favors New England. It's very 2007-2008 esque with heaviest amounts in central/northern New England
  10. SnoSki14
    I would wait a few days. The wild Pacific jet is causing day and night changes over a span of a few runs. It could easily flip in 2 days. Anything after 3 days is highly speculative on the op runs.
  11. SnoSki14
    Nice Xmas blowtorch on the Euro. Blocking doesn't mean squat with a record negative PNA/PDO. If you thought the anomalies for the US were warm before just wait till next week. Should easily be the warmest December on record.
  12. SnoSki14
    PNA is the problem. The streams won't phase unless we see a more positive PNA. Hopefully it keeps trending more favorably
  13. SnoSki14
    Pretty obvious trends as we get closer. At 5 days out this could continue to trend.
  14. SnoSki14
    MJO 7 is still okay though.
  15. SnoSki14
    Gfs getting closer to something good for 23rd. Really nice improvements out west. Trend is our friend?
  16. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'd be surprised if it pulled it off so quickly.
  17. SnoSki14
    Today & tomorrow will be the warmest days for a while. EPS is looking better. Improvements out west for sure, hopefully that trend continues. We're a couple positive trends away from taking the 22nd system more seriously. That's a really nice Greenland block on the EPS and the big trough out west has been shifting further offshore.
  18. SnoSki14
    Euro looked quite interesting for that date too.
  19. SnoSki14
    Miller A look if the PNA was more positive day 5 on Euro. Blocking is present.
  20. SnoSki14
    Very little this time of year unless there's strong advection present. Higjest I see is 65 in southern/eastern NJ
  21. SnoSki14
    Yeah def not
  22. SnoSki14
    That mega -PNA isn't very exciting this time of year. The Atlantic blocking needs to be on steroids to compensate.
  23. SnoSki14
    That EPS is looking kinda interesting just before Christmas. Miller A hopes maybe? We'd need a ton of improvement out west but will monitor to see if there's a trend.
  24. SnoSki14
    Not a chance with that -PNA
  25. SnoSki14
    We should expect more fall/winter tornadoes as climate warms. Strong jet stream & cyclones this time of year coupled with warming temperatures is a recipe for trouble.
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