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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Any OP run past 5 days is in weenie land. Even 3+ days is a lot. Ensembles still look iffy with continued -PNA. If blocking were stronger we could've counteracted it. Right now things look very cutterish.
  2. SnoSki14
    I think mid Jan to Feb 15-20 will likely torch. If blocking hangs around then it'll be cooler. Best snowfall opportunities will be 1st half of Jan and then late winter. Good chance that blocking showing up now will show its face again and the -PNA won't be as damaging late winter due to wavelength changes. In fact a -PNA after Feb 20 is more favorable than a +PNA for snows here.
  3. SnoSki14
    That's pretty much what I'm betting on.
  4. SnoSki14
    Maybe take your own advice and stop looking at op runs 3+ days out.
  5. SnoSki14
    Idk what's worse, his politics or his weather forecasts. He called for global cooling in the 2010s & instead there was an acceleration in warming. It's the same song and dance every year. Big cold & snows in the east or major hurricane strike in the northeast. Eventually he'll be right but so is a dead clock.
  6. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's pretty crappy. The Gfs is way too gung-ho on these snowy solutions and it means nothing when it's 3+ days out. 9 out of 10 times the warmest, least snowy model wins
  7. SnoSki14
    There will be chances 1st half of January
  8. SnoSki14
    Ensembles look less extreme with -PNA and also shifted it east some. Could be a response to MJO 7 as we head into January. If that's the case then the first week of January should be on the colder side with a possible arctic shot as well. Any relaxation of the -PNA would be good for us as blocking is still present.
  9. SnoSki14
    You should never hope for 110 here. Given our high dews that's a recipe for 125-130F HI which would be lethal. We're talking brownouts, blackouts and a lot of people dying.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's snowing Mr Grinch
  11. SnoSki14
    That's gonna be a historic winter out west. Really good for the drought situation. Highs in the teens possibly and single digits lows for Seattle. Below zero for Vancouver. This after 115-120F temperatures last summer.
  12. SnoSki14
    It doesn't have to flip at all and it probably won't until there's a seasonal transition.
  13. SnoSki14
    After seeing record highs in the Pacific NW this summer they'll now have near record lows next week. Talk about extremes. Single digits for Seattle? Vancouver below zero? That's where our winter went.
  14. SnoSki14
    I'm not sure we've seen such an extreme Aleutian ridge before. The Pacific marine heatwaves are altering patterns so CC is relevant.
  15. SnoSki14
    My thinking is not much happens until late winter (late Feb through March). If anything were to happen before that then it'd be in 1st half of Jan. Overall think 30" is possible from a late winter assault. Blocking returns in tandem with favorable PNA relative to climo.
  16. SnoSki14
    On the contrary it's great if you want a warm, dry winter. We're probably gonna be shut out until late winter. Could the entire winter be a dud, sure but still think the blocking comes through late. Meanwhile a historic winter is on its way in the Pacific NW. Unusually chilly temperatures down to CA as well.
  17. SnoSki14
    Not much to be optimistic about. Jan could see some action first half as cold tries to bleed further south despite unfavorable PNA. I do think mid-late Jan through mid Feb will be a torch as we lose blocking temporarily. However I expect blocking to resurface later on with the -PNA no longer acting as a deterrent late Feb & March. I'm expecting 30" most of which will come in late Feb & March.
  18. SnoSki14
    Yeah it ain't gonna be very cold & snowy here when Seattle is seeing low teens and Vancouver lower single digits.
  19. SnoSki14
    I'd be shocked if we get 0 snowfall. I'm actually expecting us to get 30" mostly in late winter.
  20. SnoSki14
    Thats some serious cold out west. Pretty remarkable after the mega heat ridge over the summer. I expect some record cold & snows for those areas.
  21. SnoSki14
    Which is why I was never excited about this pattern. Two months from now this would be an excellent pattern though. And I do think this pattern will show up again in late Feb/March where most of our cold & snow will be.
  22. SnoSki14
    Exaggeration much
  23. SnoSki14
    They will have a lot more snow than us. Looks a good winter setting up for them, maybe even historic. We could def thread the needle in this pattern. We've had much worse patterns. Nothing crazy of course but some snow.
  24. SnoSki14
    Looks like it hit 19F here in Somerset
  25. SnoSki14
    Would've been a nice storm if the PNA was better. Some last minute trends could help eastern sections
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