SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I really like the mid Jan period. Tons of potential there, even some -NAO blocking showing up.
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I completely disagree. There's a building western ridge that will retrograde further west over time. Next 10 day outlook. Friday system 1-3/2-4" followed by cold weekend, brief warm early next week followed by coldest air of the season then some more relaxation as the western ridge really builds. After that the stage is set for a very snowy period. Ensembles hinting at some Atlantic blocking as well. I think Jan 15-20 and possibly up till the 25th could be very good.
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There's still a possibility of it blowing up fast near the coast. I don't think models will be able to figure that out till tomorrow. Either way the lack of a +PNA hurts this system but there will be much better opportunities going forward.
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I like the Jan 15-20 period for our area. Really nice PNA spike and plenty of cold. It's the missing ingredient for Friday's system.
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The Rgem has by far been the most consistent and that's what I'm going with.
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The Nam is a garbage model. Idk why anyone would take it seriously. Just take a look at its past 6 runs. It's all over the place.
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HRRR long range would be an ideal track.
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Yeah that's a good timeframe to watch. Much more favorable PNA ridging which is really good for larger snow events here in Jan.
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Hopefully everyone scores big next 2-3 weeks. Looks like a pattern change to much milder is likely after the 20th.
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60 hours is an eternity in weather land. Plenty of time for changes
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Watch it trend west tomorrow and Snowman19 will say see I knew it all along. Then he'll say we're all gonna mix or rain.
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Yeah giving up this far out given the setup is a little silly. The last storm may have whiffed on us but it buried parts of NJ & the Mid-Atlantic when models showed almost nothing just a couple days before.
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That's all you need to see. No question this will be much further west than last system. Expect big changes in model runs tonight or tomorrow.
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That shortwave is still very strong so it wouldn't shock me to see things amp up as we get closer. I do like that models shifted further SE today because it gives us more wiggle room in case things amp up tomorrow or Thursday. If models showed an amped solution today I'd be worried.
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Those Feb 2010 cutoffs were brutal down here. 10-20 miles was the difference between an inch and 8-10"
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At this point I'll take an inch hell even a dusting would work
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I think we have a greater than 50% at a moderate system (3-6"). The fast flow will counteract the negative tilt preventing a wound up hugger. Actually think parts of SNE are more likely to mix as storm really blows up and tucks in after it passes our region.
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Flow is too fast for such an inland track. Still think a whiff is more likely than cutter.
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Gfs disagrees and it did well with last system
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Flow is fast. We're going to see dramatic model shifts next couple days. I'm leaning towards a whiff right now.
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I would put our odds at a 3-6" storm about 50/50 right now
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Its not bad. Reminiscent of 13/14
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MJO looks to stay around 7 to 8 occasionally so should be a back and forth pattern. Potential for snows will exist through mid Jan probably the 20th. I still think late late and Feb are toast.
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Progressive flow counteracts that risk. A whiff is much more probable imo
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I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even see flakes from this.
