SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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This setup could trend favorably given pattern aloft. Lots of confluence nearby with strong blocking present
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The 6th and 10-11th are the two main opportunities. The 6th looks very SWFE-ish. 0z GFS was an outlier, 06 GFS brought it back. With such a strong blocking pattern, it could trend towards a miller B and further south.
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Some classic GFS snow porn That's a pretty textbook snowstorm pattern showing up. We'd likely have more chances after the 8-10th too.
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Completely sheared out
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Yeah that could deliver too
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GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern
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And inflation will magically disappear. I can't wait for my $1.50 gas
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If the pacific jet can relax even a little bit then pattern is loaded with potential. Jan 5-7 then 9-11 with more afterwards. Unfortunately the trends this winter have been to strengthen the jet as we get closer in
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GFS mainly cold/dry with clipper potential. You really need a sustained western ridge for something better. Probably a colder version of our December pattern. Best odds at something more significant is Jan 10-20
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Late day highs?
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Definitely. A decade ago when the Pacific jet wasn't raging the upcoming period would've been a slam dunk KU pattern imo.
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If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. And then Nina March's can be really good too
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What's biblical? 50"+
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That was a nice trend on the GFS. Better Atlantic blocking and stronger heights out west on the GEFS. NYD is a long shot due to air mass and less than ideal track but not impossible especially for NW zones and higher elevations
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That Pacific jet will be a huge hindrance unfortunately. Hopefully we can get a favorably timed period otherwise it'll be cold/dry to brief warm/wet then back to cold/dry a la warmer version of the 80s
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Made it to 17F, many low teens not far away. Very efficient radiational cooling. I could see ice being a bigger concern than forecast tonight
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You mean the once in a century storm hasn't arrived after 8 years? Some of you need a reality check.
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But I worry that the Pacific jet will trend stronger as has been the case and we end up getting screwed.
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Fast pacific jet will have shortwaves coming in further north. Shortwaves cutting are the issue. Case in point, the GFS OP. The erosion of heights out west means shortwaves can't dig south and take that coveted coastal track. Instead they'll move quickly ENE and best case drop a couple inches if the antecedent air mass is cold enough, otherwise it'll be rain. On the plus side the GEFS are showing less troughiness out west, probably has something to do with the big rise in the PDO
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I don't see that. Lower heights out west. There will be shortwaves ejecting. Problem will be some of them cutting vs coastal track
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It could be 60F and rain like most years. This is the best we could get
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They'll be snowstorm opportunities but we'll also risk storms cutting with that fast pacific jet lowering heights out west. Maybe we can get that Hudson bay block to help
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I could see a wintry mix play out but it seems unlikely to me since there's not much cold in place.
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This is true. A colder correction wouldn't surprise me though neither would a delay. Still appears that the Jan 5-15 period will be the best one for us. Anything before that seems unlikely to yield much, if anything. I also don't see a blowtorch Feb. I like the CFS idea.
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EPS not as bad but not great either. Could be a delayed, not denied situation. I still expect at least a period of favorable conditions in January, probably in the Jan 5-15 window. CFS has the right idea imo
