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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Yeah this should be interesting. The strength & track, gradient & timing around Full Moon should at least produce a significant wind/coastal flooding event.
  2. SnoSki14
    That look above is why there are better opportunities after Monday's storm.
  3. SnoSki14
    Well at least the GFS wasn't worse. I did like that it had more confluence ahead of it but the vortex was also a little slower this run so it cancelled out. That track would bring some serious wind ahead of it though.
  4. SnoSki14
    The Icon def looks east. Nice snows on the front end and surface temps never get much above freezing. That's probably the best scenario for us. Front end dump followed by dry slot.
  5. SnoSki14
    That's interesting give how amped they tend to be.
  6. SnoSki14
    The current pattern is not all that favorable for a snow event but it does get a lot better after the 20th. So don't fret if this doesn't work out. There will be plenty more chances. EPS/GEFS looks favorable into February.
  7. SnoSki14
    It's a thread the needle event for sure. The placement/movement of the high ahead of it isn't great. But a storm cutting through the Appalachians is also unusual. I'm a bit more optimistic today than yesterday but we'll see.
  8. SnoSki14
    He's completely wrong about every storm trending north west as well. The ocean storm never trended west, our last snow event never trended west. The southern NJ storm never trended north. Everything will come down to the speed of the southern vortex. If it's ejected east faster than the phase will occur later. The lack of a true block hurts but the ocean storm still helps create some confluence ahead of Monday's system. But if I had to guess I would put the chances at an early phase/cutter 70% and a GEFS outcome at 30% right now. I need to see the 12z runs speed up that southern vortex or it's game over. Fast flow has been the theme lately and without a strong +PNA to slow down the flow I'd be surprised if models didn't speed up the southern stream low
  9. SnoSki14
    I don't think it would be a brush. The phasing could just be delayed if the southern wave moves east faster. And I do think models are too slow with the southern stream. Progressive flow pattern has been the game last several years. So it's not over just yet Gfs def speeding up southern wave last few runs as well
  10. SnoSki14
    I think the only way the outcome changes is if models are incorrect in holding back the energy around day 3 when the storm is in Arkansas. If the storm ends up being more progressive then it'll end up further east. The west pull into central PA is the result of a complete phase with northern stream. If this phase is delayed due to the southern vortex moving east faster then the track will most likely be offshore or a coastal hugger. Note Euro tends to be hold back things too much so its amped up track wasn't surprising. The GEFS were def interesting.
  11. SnoSki14
    That's def not true. Our last snow event did not keep trending west otherwise we would have had a foot. The snow event that slammed Atlantic City trended west initially but stopped as we got within 3 days.
  12. SnoSki14
    Those off hour runs tend to be a lot wonkier. 18z GFS is usually more progressive so I'd like to see a continuation at 0z to see if there's any hope. Good to see the GEFS trend east though.
  13. SnoSki14
    I wonder if models are incorrect on hanging back the shortwave around day 3. Because that would make a big difference down the line.
  14. SnoSki14
    It could easily keep trending westward. Might have to worry about coastal flooding/strong winds over snow. Pretty strong low on Euro
  15. SnoSki14
    The outcome seems simple actually. Friday's system could've acted like a 50/50 had we had some sort of block up north. It could've created enough confluence to have the following system shift east. At this point I'm hoping Monday's storm shifts further west and introduces a wave breaking event that will plunge the NAO and give us a much better setup next week.
  16. SnoSki14
    The pattern after Monday's storm looks a lot better to me. Stout Alaskan ridging with some Atlantic blocking. It's possible Monday serves as a wave breaking event.
  17. SnoSki14
    The high rapidly escaping east is not a CAD scenario given intensifying phased low moving in. Maybe it could start as snow but it should quickly turn to rain. This storm desperately needs a -NAO block. That would slow down the ocean low, turn it into a 50/50 and press the confluence for Monday's system. Although it's still a few days out I think the writing is on the wall for this.
  18. SnoSki14
    You know it's bad when folks are using the 84hr Nam for positivity about the storm.
  19. SnoSki14
    Long range still looks good. So what if this storm cuts there are plenty of future chances.
  20. SnoSki14
    Pattern gets better later next week actually so I def think we'll score eventually.
  21. SnoSki14
    Agreed. Either give me a monster KU or be warm/snowless. I've been a lot more interested in severe weather last few years bc I think that's what the trend will be. I'm kinda hoping Monday turns into a major southeast screamer.
  22. SnoSki14
    I don't think it would make a difference if it wasn't there. In fact the ocean storm provides some confluence for Monday. The thing is the more favorable snowy pattern doesn't really happen till the 20th on the ensembles.
  23. SnoSki14
    We do still have 4 days to go. It is possible the confluence trends stronger again and the track shifts east again. We've seen substantial short term changes already. But if the 12z suite holds or keeps trending west then it's probably not gonna be a coastal.
  24. SnoSki14
    I thought it could work out though the high to the northeast of the storm moving out was a red flag. Now I'm concerned we might be dealing with a powerful south'easter.
  25. SnoSki14
    The GFS track would create serious coastal flooding and strong winds. Timing around Full Moon. If it is gonna cut then I hope it keeps trending west. The storm could be a wave breaking event that flips the NAO/AO negative and makes future systems more favorable for us.
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