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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I always thought we would see less hurricanes but stronger ones in an AGW world. We also just had a string of well above normal seasons.
  2. SnoSki14
    I wonder if models have yet to pick up on the seasonal transition cues because the GFS still thinks it's mid July by September 10. The GFS does this a lot in March too when it shows single digits for mid March. Chances are it'll be very warm but I'm very weary of the days and days of 95+ readings.
  3. SnoSki14
    This is unfortunate. I'm glad we had some rains last week but it's nowhere near enough and far too localized to make an impact. Not much on the tropics front either. Bad fire season ahead. GFS OP to 2 weeks has literally no rain for anyone and upper 80s to low 90s pretty much everyday. Nuts
  4. SnoSki14
    We should probably start using 10 year averages not 30 given how fast our climate is warming. Our new averages can't keep up with the warning trends and this is only with 1-1.5C global warming. Imagine how things will be like when it's 2.5-3C warming by 2040-2050.
  5. SnoSki14
    3 more days of 90s possible too and then some close calls first 10 days of September. Many sites will hit their all time annual 90s days. The drought conditions really helped break us to the upside on what would've been a lot of upper 80s days.
  6. SnoSki14
    This system seems legit. I think it'll be close whether it could develop this month. It'll probably become a name on the 31st or something to kill the 0/0/0 chances No idea where it'll go track wise though. Euro gets it just east of the Bahamas and then steering collapses.
  7. SnoSki14
    Let's just push the Earth towards the sun instead
  8. SnoSki14
    Drought will continue. GFS OP has no rain for its entire run.
  9. SnoSki14
    Euro looking interesting.
  10. SnoSki14
    Ensembles would suggest things correct cooler. They show a pretty solid +PNA/-NAO actually. However it's also too early for us to see a major response unless those signals are extremely strong so that's why we'll likely stay on the hot gradient side of things.
  11. SnoSki14
    It still trended cooler for those days. Never said it was a permanent thing And I've accepted things will always be warm from now on. I just want some storms or something. This whole summer is the equivalent to cold/dry all winter.
  12. SnoSki14
    Dull as dirt pattern continues. It's like Phoenix/Vegas lite except even they've gotten more excitement.
  13. SnoSki14
    You'd think with all that heat things would be more active
  14. SnoSki14
    It really is a wild anomaly. I thought a 0/0/0 in August during a Nina was insane but not anymore. Models continue to back-off on significant development.
  15. SnoSki14
    I don't care if the heat stays, it's the weather boredom that's more irritating. Just absolutely nothing going on. Tropics are dead, rain chances are dead, severe weather is dead, meh all around.
  16. SnoSki14
    It'll correct cooler. +PNA and a trending -NAO
  17. SnoSki14
    I don't think we'll see many 90s after the 31st. I see a lot of big highs coming across to start September.
  18. SnoSki14
    We're also fighting climo. 90s are harder to come by as we enter September.
  19. SnoSki14
    It's interesting how things are playing out like 2013 with the low tropical activity and high retention of Arctic sea ice. If only that could roll over into the winter.
  20. SnoSki14
    Euro & GFS are showing more tropical development in the longer range so this quiet will break eventually. However yes its been unusually quiet and very anti-Nina. I think using base ENSO states to determine what the season will be no longer applies in the AGW era.
  21. SnoSki14
    The seasons of yesterday are no more. It was nice while it lasted. Even the new normals can't keep up. Newark will easily break the 90s August record and annual 90s record. At least 5-6 more 90s this month and then probably a few in September should put them at 50+
  22. SnoSki14
    Pretty lame so far. All the heavy stuff has been just north.
  23. SnoSki14
    Could the volcanic explosion be affecting our climate? This is all very unusual
  24. SnoSki14
    18z GFS illustrates the concern that this year's storms won't develop much until they get west of 60W where it matters for us. We could have 8 major hurricanes but if they all recurve well east of the US then would anyone regard that as an active season outside of the numbers. It's the home brews or delayed developers that matter.
  25. SnoSki14
    Today I really noticed the drought related damage to trees and bushes vs just lawns.
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