SnoSki14

Ant will be driving off a cliff if SNE gets 2' and he gets 2" But it's a possibility. Hopefully the large nature of the storm at least drops warning snows this far west.

How does this storm compare to that one synoptically. I would think the +AO/NAO this time around would cause the storm to tuck in closer to the coast over time.

Just commentating after seeing Euro. Unless there's a massive regime change next day or so it seems likely we phase. In almost every instance when this occurred the storm ticked west and/or got going faster which caused a west tick (see our last big inland cutter). Having that extra wiggle room provided by the GFS/Euro is a very good thing right now. A bullseye this far out usually means we mix/changeover as storm eventually shifts too far west. This is especially true given we don't have a true -NAO block in place.

I'm going to give these boards and models a rest till Wednesday or Thursday. Analyzing every model run will drive you nuts especially if the end result isn't what you wanted. All you need to know is that a big snowstorm is on the table.

The GFS/GEFS are a little more east so the more westward CMC provides a good balance between both.

It doesn't take much to drop 2' totals these days.

Big storm with some wiggle room.

I mean it's hard to complain when the region has gotten multiple KU storms over the past couple decades

The WAR will substitute the poor Atlantic blocking. PNA ridge out west is my biggest concern.

OTS is much more likely. If the phasing is off this will end up much further east. And that could still play out. There's a lot of time left

A lot has changed in a very short time. And this way I can't lose lol

There is wiggle room which is good. If the phase is legit which it might be then things should tick west. However the trough is further east than the inland cutter debacle, the placement of the high is much better. But a lot can go wrong this far out too.

Is this gonna be like that Feb 2010 storm that shafted eastern SNE while areas west got slammed.

This is displaced much further east than that storm. It's unlikely it gets further west than LI.

The 5 day ensemble runs averaging into the 980s tells me this will likely peak in the 950-960mb range. So if things do come together and at that strength then the storm will be inside the BM.

Looks like it's a fine balancing act between the more fast Pacific flow vs the building heights in SE Canada. If this phases and explodes like models suggest then theoretically it should end up further west. I still think the faster flow will win out and an eastern solution is more likely. SNE is in a good place for this.

What a crazy turn of events. 06z GFS onboard now as well.

Very strong signal from GEFS at a powerful storm. I think it's gonna be a near miss. Could be good for eastern New England though.

When the wavelengths start to change that's when things could get wonky. And sometimes that wonkiness can lead to a snowstorm. CC has accelerated the odds of such freak occurrences deep into March.

Looks like it unfortunately. We kept the same unfavorable fast flow despite colder air coming in due to Alaskan ridging. The CMC is on an island. Tonight will make or break it.

This threat has been dead. Who cares what one op run of a model shows

Anyone not in SE Canada should prob sit this one out. East trends continue with GFS.

Hopefully this works out because that's it for snow chances for most given the warm Feb coming up. Only place that might snow after Jan is NNE.

Ensembles back on the warm Feb train. Meaning if we don't get any snow next 7-8 days we're shut out for a long time possibly till late Feb.

Winter 21-22 in a nutshell