SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Don't pay attention to the surface. H5 is considerably different than last couple runs with a strong trend towards Euro.
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That's all I care about. Who cares what it shows on the surface.
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It's def not worth much just like Nam past 48hrs ain't worth much either.
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The Nam drops 3-4" in NJ/East PA before the coastal even gets going from some overrunning snows.
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Yes, that would've been a massive blizzard
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I don't think a 950s low is out of the question.
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You're fine. If we do get snow it wouldn't be till Friday night closer to midnight.
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No thank you for areas SW. I'll take 05/06 & 2011 though.
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Just please no repeat of Jan 2015
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Very nice But is a rug pull coming tonight or tomorrow or are we good?
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Almost at the range where Euro would lock in.
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Dual maximum perhaps.
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Given the rapid intensification you could easily see the low do a NW jog before moving NNE/NE This happens as the surface and ULL catch up to each other. The inland cutter did something like that causing those westward shifts.
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Almost an elongation of the low which could help get the precip further back west.
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Yeah we'll see how well this ages
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I see that as well. The Euro is probably our best case scenario.
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Maybe for once this could work to our benefit and result in a more tucked in track.
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That's what's gonna happen isn't it. This has central & eastern SNE bomb, western areas fringe written all over it.
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A tuck 50 miles more west would do. It's nice to see models trending more favorably for once.
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What you mean? Think it'll go back east or west.
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GFS bringing the storm back? All it would take for a better scenario is a slightly faster ejection of the sw. There's time for that to happen but it could just as easily trend the other way. Eastern SNE is in a much better spot. We need the perfect thread the needle solution.
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That shortwave is everything. If it ejects faster then the stronger, western ensemble plots win. If it's too late then GFS/CMC win.
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Maybe this is the period where models back off only to bring it back the next day. Either way hopefully something works out because the pattern turns to crap right after and will stay that way most of Feb.
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This is what I mean by over analyzing every model run. It'll just drive you crazy. Check back Thursday
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Goofus said take your feet of snow talk and shove it.
