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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    That N/NW eyewall is vicious, probably supercharged from the trough.
  2. SnoSki14
    Next time we need a Cat 6 to finally sink Florida back into the ocean
  3. SnoSki14
    I still can't get over the hubris of people building in zones where hurricanes happen and where eventual sea level rises will wash developments away. Cape Coral is literally a death trap
  4. SnoSki14
    As long as they're SE of the eye they're getting the surge.
  5. SnoSki14
    On radar it looks like it's making a beeline towards Cape Coral & Ft. Myers
  6. SnoSki14
    Yes but the storm itself was further north. Part of the rain on the 12z was a redevelopment of the remnants of Ian rather than the main system
  7. SnoSki14
    GFS continues to trend in that direction
  8. SnoSki14
    That's good with regards to flooding however the movement NE will still be very slow across the peninsula so someone's gonna get 20-25" minimum. Unfortunately the odds of another landfall continue to rise and models that do take that route restrengthen the storm.
  9. SnoSki14
    CMC has been a western outlier its entire cycle. I'm leaning Ft. Myers, either just 10-20 miles north/south or over it.
  10. SnoSki14
    Icon with another major landfall near Charleston
  11. SnoSki14
    Ian moving with the shear and getting ventilation from the trough. At this point only an EWRC would equal a less than major hurricane impact.
  12. SnoSki14
    Ft. Myers area in danger now for direct hit however biggest danger overall will be the flooding for most of central FL. A stall or very slow movement is likely over Florida which means catastrophic rainfall totals of 20-40" with isolated amounts even higher than that.
  13. SnoSki14
    Everyone wants this they just don't wanna admit it.
  14. SnoSki14
    Strong blocking high to the north causes slowdown However decades of sea level rises will increase flooding risks
  15. SnoSki14
    Track wise maybe but this will be a bigger storm and a slow mover as you stated. Models might have also overcorrected SE
  16. SnoSki14
    The east shifts from Ian tonight mean Ian could get a lot further north aka remnant moisture.
  17. SnoSki14
    Sometimes IR doesn't tell the story. Clearly the NHC was right on the Cat 2 upgrade per recon Their forecasts have been top notch this year and I have little reason to believe their forecast will be too far from reality.
  18. SnoSki14
    Looks like Ian might be more influenced by the trough.
  19. SnoSki14
    12z Euro would not be good for Tampa, that would definitely bring the surge in.
  20. SnoSki14
    I think the 12z has to confirm the 06z Euro first because it could've been a fluke run.
  21. SnoSki14
    A track that far west would mitigate the surge/rain impacts but it also depends on how large the system is.
  22. SnoSki14
    Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida. And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida
  23. SnoSki14
    If west trend wins expect a weak system at landfall with flooding being the main issue
  24. SnoSki14
    Looks like we should get a good batch. Don't know if there's anything severe there though but any rain is good
  25. SnoSki14
    I didn't even bother following any "threat" for today. You'll get some showers and that's it
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