SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It looks worse than before and trending towards other models.
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I'm kind of optimistic about this working out somehow after being so negative about it. All it takes is a subtle shift in the southern stream ejection and everything changes. Because of the fast flow these subtleties may not be accurately captured until we're less than 36hrs out.
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It's like trying to catch a speeding bullet. You either catch it or you don't and it goes flying past you. The trough goes negative a little faster and the position shifts 100+ miles
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This could still go either way looking at the 12z runs. It really doesn't take much to go from big storm to nothing or vice versa.
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If the southern energy phases in faster then the 12z suite depicts then you'll see dramatic shifts from run to run. Maybe for once luck will be on your side
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The flow would've been slower allowing the SW shortwave to phase in and have the system go negative quickly. If for any reason the 12z suite is wrong and the energy phases in quickly then the entire outlook changes in a hurry. That's how delicate this setup is.
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Because small changes can make a huge difference (see 06z vs 12z Nam) this is still worth watching till tomorrow.
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Just goes to show the importance of Atlantic blocking. It slows everything down allowing shortwaves to phase at the right moment. If you don't have that then a very strong PNA like Feb 2006 can help. The PNA this time isn't as strong.
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So much hype building, I see plows everywhere and we might not get anything.
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Yeah if only it weren't the Nam at 84hrs. That being said there's a decent shift from 06z at 36-48hrs where Nam does well.
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My expectations are very low right now. I'd be happy with 2-4" I'm in Somerset so kinda west. NYC will prob do better. You really would need to thread the needle perfectly for the Euro outcome and its been way too amplified this season so I don't see it happening. I think the 06z Nam is plausible.
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Well the changes need to start at 12z. The closer you get the less likely you'll see a lot of changes. Once you're under 60hrs for a major storm all you'll get is minor ticks. With all the data coming in today we still have until 0z tonight to see bigger shifts.
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Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. Gradient will be tight.
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East special. Atlantic City could pick up several inches, really nice winter for them. Eastern LI will do well
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Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall.
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East shifts continue on Nam. Areas outside of eastern SNE likely to get shafted.
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It's one of the best models we have.
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What's your excuse gonna be when Euro shifts east tonight.
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How befitting of winter 21/22
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Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow. Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold.
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That's great. If the models agree on this then the GFS becomes an outlier.
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Normally I would think the GFS is just doing its normal waffling but it has done really well this season. It also highlights what a thread the needle storm this really is. All it takes is that sw hanging back a little longer and we get almost nothing.
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The GFS has def done better than the Euro this season. I don't think anyone should discount tonight's run.
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A miss east was always the risk.
