SnoSki14
-
Posts
15,656 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
We're shielded from the more severe AGW impacts as well. We also haven't had our Pac NW crazy summer ridge yet That would def raise a lot of eyebrows
-
The PNA is forecast to trend towards neutral near mid month so theoretically the pattern shouldn't be as hostile. It'll prob be temporary but there's a window for something wintrier in the Dec 15-25th timeframe. However the PNA could just as easily end up more negative like we've seen and then we're prob toast til Jan. January imo will be our best opportunity. Another 2-3 week winter is probable
-
Another busted December. More of the same pacific garbage. Wake me up when the Nina crap finally ends
-
Garbage pacific, garbage pattern I'm getting 01/02 vibes tbh. All the cold will be in Europe as bad pacific circumvents Atlantic blocking.
-
I disagree but anything is possible In the era of AGW a torch is more likely than even an average month
-
Looks different again in the 8-10 day
-
I do think something will come out of this but it's a long waiting game. After mid month most likely. Climo gets a lot better too by then.
-
This is especially true if you live on the coast. Areas further north and inland in New England can get away with a suboptimal airmass but not us. If you're still struggling to hit freezing in the morning now then yeah you need the cold. I do think things will look better after mid month. Less of a -PNA will help
-
Even if the storm track is good the airmass is terrible especially where you live. Pacific air won't be enough. The Atlantic blocking also isn't ideal with it poking pretty far south leading to AN temps.
-
Or if this look maintains throughout the winter we'll get our opportunities in the back half like in 2013 and 1969 when a bad pacific won't matter as much.
-
Until we get out of this Nina state that's likely the theme. I do think Atlantic blocking will be a bit better this year though.
-
Your Dec/Jan calls are looking pretty good. The blocking we're getting now isn't likely to manifest into anything good until either very late this month and most likely January.
-
Yeah it sucks right now. My initial idea of waiting til January is likely to pan out. That's been the theme. Pacific is garbage
-
The run to run changes are laughably bad
-
I suspect this will be a theme in the future
-
Atlantic blocking is remarkably stable and long lasting So it's more or less a waiting game for things to improve our west. So I'm guessing the system on the 9th gets shredded like Euro & CMC show. Looks like GFS is trending in that direction but it's still something to watch
-
This is the dreaded pacific puke pattern in a nutshell. Stormy but never cold enough for snow and not pleasant enough to enjoy either. It's basically March weather all winter. This is still just a forecast though. No guarantee it plays out that way either
-
Not much frozen in this pattern. It's a stormy but mild look as pacific jet brings the storms, the block helps to amplify them but there's no cold air to be found.
-
I don't think we're gonna get a good pacific this season. The best we can hope for is that it's not overly hostile.
-
Okay then let me clarify. For areas south we need the +PNA or a neutral PNA in December Bluewave made it very clear. Rockies ridge is a must.
-
You need a good pacific in December to benefit. Current signs point to better conditions by mid month however we need to see this hold into the medium term range. Pacific particularly PNA is less important Jan-March.
-
That clown JB always uses this model
-
Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south
-
Nah that's nonsense
-
We've had a lot more luck in January than December and it looks like that will be the case again. January may actually turn out really well if the blocking sticks around and we don't have to rely on the Pacific as much
