SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe. That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show.
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Typical model waffling. They'll trend more favorably by tomorrow
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It's a garbage run as are most of these op runs beyond 3-5 days
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The modeled pattern is about as favorable as you can get. I see zero suppression risks and multiple snow events, some big once the pattern settles in. Could easily be a 3-4 week snowy period imo.
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Had lots of subsidence in NJ for that one but still cleaned up well
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Now I'm curious was there any similar pattern that is currently depicted that didn't produce at least one significant snow event in the northeast. Let's say in the last 30 years
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I was just gonna say wasn't that the millennium storm. It was the first major snow event since the terrible late 90s winters
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The EPS is straight outta JBs basement. I think we have to start talking about multiple big storms in this pattern
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I can't think of any blocking pattern like that in the last 22 years that didn't produce anything Often times it's a waiting game though like 2010
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I think a good chunk of New England could get skunked actually at least for a time.
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Given the extent of blocking I could see a southern lean to the storms. NNE & even a bit further south may get angsty at times.
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That could trend colder. Normally they trend warmer but with a big block building it could go the opposite
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That Dec 5/6 system could trend more favorably with blocking already having an effect on it. Notable compression taking hold. Maybe it'll turn into a swfe.
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A rotten block in Dec/Jan is better than latter Feb/March. At least climo is still better. That being said the Pacific does actually improve over time so reloads are very possible
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I'm not worried about that when PNA is still negative to neutral and Nina forcing tends to keep heights low out west. This is a lot closer to 10-11 than 09-10 which was also a big Nino year.
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Coming pattern looks closer to one that favored all 3 cities picking up 6"+ Also seeing AO forecast dip below 3 for December. Usually a good sign for winter
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Get the right pattern in place and mix it with the warmer/wetter background state and boom Just look at those sea surface anomalies
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I despise that winter. It was one of the few where SNE got hammered while places just south got skunked.
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If you only talk about warmth and never acknowledge anything else then you're just a troll Even Forky can see a cold/snowy pattern.
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You know a cold/snowy pattern is coming when snowman isn't reposting random Twitter threads about warm weather
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Noticeable Pacific improvements on days 5-7 on the EPS Results in models bringing in colder changes a couple days earlier and then it stays favorable the rest of the run.
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Pacific improving on ensembles
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That's key and signals this evolution is real. Ignore some of the ops though. They might waver a bit until we get closer to this period. Ensembles show us the way
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Op runs beyond 3 days are worthless. The idea remains the same and I think models will get colder as we approach the blocking period. 2nd half of December will be snowy and feature one or two big snowstorms
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Being further south I am selfishly hoping the NAO is on the stronger side though even that isn't always good.
