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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Euro & GFS are showing more tropical development in the longer range so this quiet will break eventually. However yes its been unusually quiet and very anti-Nina. I think using base ENSO states to determine what the season will be no longer applies in the AGW era.
  2. SnoSki14
    The seasons of yesterday are no more. It was nice while it lasted. Even the new normals can't keep up. Newark will easily break the 90s August record and annual 90s record. At least 5-6 more 90s this month and then probably a few in September should put them at 50+
  3. SnoSki14
    Pretty lame so far. All the heavy stuff has been just north.
  4. SnoSki14
    Could the volcanic explosion be affecting our climate? This is all very unusual
  5. SnoSki14
    18z GFS illustrates the concern that this year's storms won't develop much until they get west of 60W where it matters for us. We could have 8 major hurricanes but if they all recurve well east of the US then would anyone regard that as an active season outside of the numbers. It's the home brews or delayed developers that matter.
  6. SnoSki14
    Today I really noticed the drought related damage to trees and bushes vs just lawns.
  7. SnoSki14
    There's zero shot of a 0/0/0 August. Models are very bullish on development going forward.
  8. SnoSki14
    Pretty good model agreement on widespread 1"+ amounts Monday. We haven't seen this in months.
  9. SnoSki14
    It really depends on whether or not the drought breaks. If it doesn't then you're probably right. We'll also likely see a quick switch from summery to wintry. An early bout of snow wouldn't shock me either.
  10. SnoSki14
    It's too quiet, it's almost eerie. Expect major cane soon, pattern kinda screaming for it.
  11. SnoSki14
    Trough digging in Midwest would enhance the ridge ahead of it. This would probably go into NC/VA
  12. SnoSki14
    Very easy to do in this SW desert type of climate The low humidity makes it much more tolerable though
  13. SnoSki14

    PTC 4

    SnoSki14 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters

    Lid normally comes off after tomorrow but this year looks slower than recent years so could be a 7-10 day delay before things pop off. I suspect September/October will be quite active as dry air continues to slowly subside. Shear is actually normal to below normal in MDR
  14. SnoSki14
    Newark could easily rack up another 5-6 days of 90s this month and get near or at its all time record. And September always brings 2-4 more 90s so they should top 50 when all is said and done
  15. SnoSki14
    Is this the default from now on or will we ever have something else I'm guessing this is the norm
  16. SnoSki14
    Yeah this could quickly spin up. BoC has been an extremely favorable area of development
  17. SnoSki14
    First D2 drought severity for me in several years.
  18. SnoSki14
    There's a good chance this will go down as the hottest summer on record for many stations. The rest of the month looks very warm to hot
  19. SnoSki14
    A hurricane is more likely
  20. SnoSki14
    I don't know if Newark can take the top spot but the second spot is def in the cards. Definitely a lot of near 90 potential rest of the month and September always gives us a few 90s too.
  21. SnoSki14
    East coast is a target with waves coming off further north than usual and the subtropical ridge anchored north of its typical position
  22. SnoSki14
    So how do you explain 2013? Well below average ACE, non-El Nino Following winter was cold & snowy
  23. SnoSki14
    If I had a dollar every time I heard that this summer I'd be rich. We are getting closer to some of the bad drought years but I assume the heavy rains of the past decade will keep us afloat for a while. Reservoir levels still look ok.
  24. SnoSki14
    Ensembles clearly sensing a burst of activity soon and right on cue too. Lid always comes off after the 20th.
  25. SnoSki14
    Very likely we might not see rain for another week or so and more upgrades in drought severity seem likely
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