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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    With high amplitude MJO expected to traverse phases 7-8 to start December and AO going negative odds are better than normal for a cold/snowy December Nina climo is also generally favorable for Dec as well.
  2. SnoSki14
    Pretty sure it is the warmest 1st two weeks of November or in the top 3 at least. Going from a +12 to +15 anomaly from November 1-12 to a -5 to -10 will be a major shock to many
  3. SnoSki14
    Hard pass. These anomalies are ridiculous. It's like +15 right now. AC was running this morning because it was like 72/68
  4. SnoSki14
    December 2015 style warmth
  5. SnoSki14
    Think there's some warmup end of November or early December before next chill down. Looks like a high amplitude MJO passage into 7 which should ignite Atlantic blocking
  6. SnoSki14
    This is so much better than NOAA just using standard ENSO climo for their forecasts.
  7. SnoSki14
    GFS with an interesting system on the 18th. Interior snows wouldn't surprise me. Also with record -EPO and Greenland blocking trending stronger I wouldn't be surprised to see the low end up further south.
  8. SnoSki14
    It doesn't look that different. Yeah the anomalies are stronger but that's common as we get closer to the forecast date.
  9. SnoSki14
    That's still a cold look though. Anomalies are way below normal
  10. SnoSki14
    It's more of a hybrid system given its massive wind field.
  11. SnoSki14
    I think winds will be quite strong Friday, moreso than models are showing. We should break through the inversion with highs near 70F
  12. SnoSki14
    The more west solutions means it's phasing with the front instead of getting kicked by it. I actually prefer it over plain rain. At least we might get some severe weather & strong gusts out of it. GFS has also been trending with developing a quick coastal on Sunday with leftover baroclinic energy and a tilting trough. If it were just a couple weeks later I'd think we might get some snow out of it.
  13. SnoSki14
    Wind shear is unusually low for the region in November. Will soon dip SW over warmer waters too.
  14. SnoSki14
    Nothing exciting has happened in months. Take anything you can get
  15. SnoSki14
    Not down here
  16. SnoSki14
    Still lots of questions regarding intensity, phasing, etc. Will be interesting to see if this blows up before hitting FL. A stronger system there will mean a stronger one up here.
  17. SnoSki14
    Before the cold arrives models have a doozy of a storm this weekend. Classic tropical/frontal phaser. Gonna pack a punch
  18. SnoSki14
    Which would you prefer, a more eastern or western track. Western track gives us more wind, east more rain. And what do you think is more likely
  19. SnoSki14
    Well in that case let it hit 80F multiple times this winter until that happens.
  20. SnoSki14
    Sorry but this weather sucks. We already get heat 8 months out of the year. I don't need 80 in November. If you want warmth nonstop then don't live here but I actually like seasonal variety.
  21. SnoSki14
    Legit winter like pattern setting up by next week. Hard to believe after this warm stretch. My AC has been on since yesterday.
  22. SnoSki14
    Going from this into the mid 30s by tomorrow night then likely only highs in the 40s/20s for lows starting Sunday will be quite the shock.
  23. SnoSki14
    Downslope dandy. Dews quickly dropping, temps now at 76F
  24. SnoSki14
    Legit summer morning with upper 60s to low 70s with dews in the mid 60s.
  25. SnoSki14
    I think it'll phase in rather than get kicked like the GFS shows
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