SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Blocking patterns are actually one of the easiest to forecast for models because they're so stable. Once models lock on they don't waver much Storms become easy to pin down as well shortly after. That's how you get weeks of snowy weather and strong consensus
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Also a big block like that could be around for a while. This isn't a transitory NAO block
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Impressive that the ensembles nailed the blocking though. However it takes time for the right pieces to fall into place. Too many try to rush the pattern change.
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This is the best December pattern I've seen in years. Things will get fun starting 2nd week of December when climo gets really good for everyone. Don't obsess about every run though. Enjoy the current pleasant weather instead
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It took until the end of 2010 before we reaped the benefits of the pattern and then it was smooth sailing for the next month or so. That's a sick -NAO block. One of these days the record warm waters will line up with a major block and produce a 3'+ snowstorm in the northeast.
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Except there's a fairly noticeable SE ridge. Even the strong -NAO can't hold it down completely. This is a great December pattern if it verifies like that but I'm weary this far out. A lot can go wrong
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That block is straight outta the Dec 2010 playbook
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That block looks pretty crazy already and on ensemble runs no less
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Stormy look
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Nice recent ensemble runs. They're really hitting the Arctic blocking strong. Looks like this week's cutter may initiate a wave break that forces a -NAO/AO. Still a little too east-based for my liking but not bad. Looks good for SNE & north though.
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It's a pattern that could break in any direction. Amount of SE ridging will be key here. We need to root for 2010 style blocking to overcome the ridging which is a tall order. This -PNA/NAO/AO pattern would work better in January with colder climo
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If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern
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Don't worry everyone at the New England forum says winter is coming
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It doesn't hurt to hedge your bets. Personally think it'll be a longer waiting period. I think January will be good for all.
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It's ideal hoodie weather which is my favorite. I wouldn't mind it staying in the 50s until there's a snowstorm
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Yeah the ops are Euro too. Do yourselves a favor and avoid looking at them for a while. Though on second glance you can see where the Euro is headed days 9-10
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Nice teleconnections today. Falling AO/NAO and even a PNA trying to rise to neutral? MJO also briefly curling into phase 8 as well. Looks like after Dec 5 is when things could get interesting.
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It comes down to whether we can avoid the extreme RNA pattern of last year + whether the strength of Atlantic blocking could suppress SE ridge enough to allow for snow events. GEFS going back and forth on strength of blocking. New runs look better
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That would be nice even down here. I just hope it holds
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That is a nice look if it holds. Some shades of 2010 in there
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In January that would work. It's tougher for us in December. That's better for New England
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GEFS pulled back some. Patience will be needed
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I'd rather see no snow at all than have to witness that. Crushing
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I'm used to a crappy decade of December snows so expectations are extremely low every year. The 2000s are a long memory now. But it's good to see areas to my north cash in early, build up some snow cover, get that colder air in. It doesn't hurt.
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You don't think there's a chance it trends stronger as we get closer to December? Maybe not Dec 2021 levels but still strong
