SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Wow it hit 58F in New Brunswick this morning. Down to 39F now
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And this is before the rain even hits
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Yes there's actually a lot of consensus on a system for that time and models are slowly trending more amped. Nice AO drop and spike are also indicative of some coastal threat.
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If you say warm and snowless for every event eventually you'll be right.
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It's tough to get too excited with the NAO/AO so positive. But the PNA should help us out at least once this month.
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I'd be willing to bet we see a good snow event in the Feb 10-20 period. Nice ridge amplification out west and it'll be ahead of another pattern shift. Good snow period climo wise as well.
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Lots of melting today. With 1-2" of rain, foggy weather and 40s it'll all be gone. Note HRRR and 0z Nam trended warmer. All in all this will be a rain event with perhaps some mixed precip before it ends. You really have to be well N&W to see significant impacts.
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I get the weenies for literally saying the same thing as Forky said. Yes high pressure trajectory isn't favorable for ice in the metro like it is for TX.
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GFS takes a little longer to cool down vs 12z
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Nam gets some icing further south before precip shuts off.
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It's called being realistic. I acknowledged the icing potential further north.
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Well above forecast
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Yeah it won't take much to kill this meager pack
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Don't know if it means much but temps overperforming by several degrees today.
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You're right NE NJ is in that group. UKMET has been garbage throughout. It was the southernmost model now it's the warmest. However I'm not seeing the cold drain setup until after the precip ends. You want what's happening in TX. Large Arctic high to the north sinking southeast. That's not what we're getting
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I highly doubt anyone in the immediate NYC metro gets any icing. You would need temps to fall through the 20s to see ice accretion. NW NJ, SE Upstate NY, NE PA is where the icing is much more likely. The GFS would have to be correct.
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He can't admit his forecast is flopping hard. I thought torch Feb too, which is still possible but becoming more unlikely. He'll claim victory when we flip warm which isn't hard to do if you forecast warm/snowless every year.
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GFS still holding on to the colder solution. Cools things down faster than 06z
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Feb 10-20 could be a good period. PNA expansion out west into Alaska giving us colder air downstream.
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Nam trending warmer. This will just be a rain event unless you're well north and west. Nearly 2" of rain too will melt everything with temps well in the 40s.
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Lots of rain coming, should melt everything by Friday.
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This sounds about right. Better than ice
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Sooner or later when he keeps saying mild and snowless he'll end up right. The torch February that Snowman and I also believed would happen doesn't look to be playing out based on ensembles. The 2nd half of Feb would have to be really warm for it to work out.
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The Euro was a bit more concerning. Places N&W of the city could have a problem but it wouldn't take much for the warmer solutions to verify. Just got to keep watching when that high builds
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But will the high build in fast enough to drop those surface temps. Consensus says no. If it does then it would be an ice storm and surface temps would likely trend even colder. The snow cover would also help keep us cold.
