SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Euro trending south with the primary for the 16th system. Still too far north for us but heading in a good direction
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I'm not sure either the 12th or 16th will work out here. They are both embedded in the pattern transition phase. 12th doesn't have much room to amplify and the 16th has a primary that's way too far north to start. It's likely after the 16th where we get our favorable pattern. Getting the 16th storm to work out would be a major bonus Anything outside the 5 day period needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The model variations have been extreme this season
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GFS showing the transfer now. Still not good for us but I don't see why it wouldn't continue trending
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The 15th system will hit. Models trending towards redeveloper.
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Nice to see threats showing up even if they aren't ideal just yet GEFS continue to make small improvements for our first system
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A small piece of the PV has been shifting SW with each run so there is cold air to be found
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Yes very odd but wouldn't surprise me if we get more of an RNA pattern for a time. My prediction is we get some kind of snow event or two (maybe significant) in the 12/12-12/22 period followed by a possible cutter or SWFE in the 12/24-12/28 range and then more favorable after the new year.
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Tasty look and in a reasonable window Very stormy as well with an endless supply of disturbances likely coming in. It feels like models did a 360 turn to what they showed a several days ago but just slightly delayed
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I'll have to read it then. Even if those systems don't work out the pattern looks good post 15th for more attempts. I don't think many were expecting much before mid month anyway
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AO now forecast to dip to an impressive -4 around that time too. I think the stronger block has merit. Best case scenario is the trends continue and there's a double whammy of winter weather as 12th system acts like a 50/50 low for the next one.
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I don't think it's done trending either GEFS with the rare coast to coast troughiness in the long range
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That's why I'm just gonna stick to the 5 day on op and no more than 7 on ensembles The evolution of the system on the 12th will play a role in the following systems.
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I'm starting to like the 12th more. Really nice trends on the GEFS for the 5 day. It keeps pushing the ridge axis west and increasing troughiness on the coast. Not sure if it'll be enough but the blocking clearly slowing things down. You can actually see the modeling playing catch-up to the strong blocking.
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Very significant. GFS going apeshit with the blocking
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South is more likely than north given blocking Could also end up being a shredder
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I'm hoping the SW trough continues to trend SW and pinch off from main jet.
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Last night's runs and ensembles were pretty decent and a continued improvement over what we've seen. Some even gave us some snow
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This is why.
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Pacific improves on Euro too. Let's hope that continues
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It depends on how the 12th system evolves. Still a little too make any determinations
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I'm glad we're seeing it in the 8-10 day rather than 11-15+ That's a good sign for now
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Ensembles finally bringing a more favorable pattern out west inside the 10 day. If that continues then things should improve after mid December.
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Nice to see improvements out west on the ensembles as we get closer.
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We're shielded from the more severe AGW impacts as well. We also haven't had our Pac NW crazy summer ridge yet That would def raise a lot of eyebrows
