SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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An early guess but think we'll have to wait til January for any meaningful snows. The Pacific doesn't wanna play ball. I also don't like the MJO curling back towards phase 6.
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It'll be December by then. More than NNE should be getting snows
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Pattern looks like crap for snows outside of NNE. So far looking like a copy of 2021
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Looks like a repeat of last winter We need a major ENSO overhaul to get something different
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Looks like we'll get our mild late November to early December period after all.
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Probably too many competing influences I'm just gonna use ensembles only and no Ops beyond 3 days
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Model performance has been awful. You really can't take any solution seriously past 3 days.
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You need a good airmass in place ahead of the system for November snows to work out Also blocking is fairly weak and doesn't lock 50/50 low in
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Ingredients are there for a powerhouse system but any frozen will likely be reserved for NNE and high elevations
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Twitter is where intelligence goes to die. All I see is the same ole Nina crap that we've had for a decade now. Atlantic blocking has to do all the heavy lifting yet again No help in the Pacific
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Well the warm weather should make you happy at least
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Nice drive through the snow squall. Was coming down pretty good. Temps dropped from 40 to 34
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First flurries of the season in Somerset
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Blocking is too weak and doesn't hold 50/50 in place Models are flip flopping a lot though
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LR looked pretty crappy again Arctic blocking too weak and pacific ridging breaks down.
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Agreed. By March you're quickly heading into spring/summer or at least it feels that way. Though more often than not the weather frequently reminds you it's still March.
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I didn't quite get that with that post. Usually the warm weather posts are much more overt. This one did mention the east coast trough at least and subsequent storm signal
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There's definitely a signal for something but tracking it well over a week out is a little silly.
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I think the T-Day system will be a tall order right now however Euro cutter causes a wave break that might help big time in early December.
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8 out of 10 times these things don't work out but odds are a little better this time. The Arctic blocking looks real. GEFS also agrees
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Well we may have blocking in December this year which should help as long as the Pacific isn't a complete dumpster fire like last year MJO going to 7 to end November and then slow down but there are some hints it could go to 8.
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I'm not getting my hopes up until this Nina crap finally goes away. Consider any snow a blessing
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First 20s shortly, already down to 30F
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Ensembles looking pretty decent for December. Notice -AO trending stronger everyday Could be a few mild days in there too. Agree with snowman that snowy pattern will have to wait until AO blocking materializes.
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Very favorable MJO progression from November to December No wonder arctic blocking is showing up on ensembles
