SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Given the extent of blocking I could see a southern lean to the storms. NNE & even a bit further south may get angsty at times.
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That could trend colder. Normally they trend warmer but with a big block building it could go the opposite
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That Dec 5/6 system could trend more favorably with blocking already having an effect on it. Notable compression taking hold. Maybe it'll turn into a swfe.
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A rotten block in Dec/Jan is better than latter Feb/March. At least climo is still better. That being said the Pacific does actually improve over time so reloads are very possible
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I'm not worried about that when PNA is still negative to neutral and Nina forcing tends to keep heights low out west. This is a lot closer to 10-11 than 09-10 which was also a big Nino year.
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Coming pattern looks closer to one that favored all 3 cities picking up 6"+ Also seeing AO forecast dip below 3 for December. Usually a good sign for winter
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Get the right pattern in place and mix it with the warmer/wetter background state and boom Just look at those sea surface anomalies
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I despise that winter. It was one of the few where SNE got hammered while places just south got skunked.
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If you only talk about warmth and never acknowledge anything else then you're just a troll Even Forky can see a cold/snowy pattern.
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You know a cold/snowy pattern is coming when snowman isn't reposting random Twitter threads about warm weather
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Noticeable Pacific improvements on days 5-7 on the EPS Results in models bringing in colder changes a couple days earlier and then it stays favorable the rest of the run.
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Pacific improving on ensembles
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That's key and signals this evolution is real. Ignore some of the ops though. They might waver a bit until we get closer to this period. Ensembles show us the way
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Op runs beyond 3 days are worthless. The idea remains the same and I think models will get colder as we approach the blocking period. 2nd half of December will be snowy and feature one or two big snowstorms
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Being further south I am selfishly hoping the NAO is on the stronger side though even that isn't always good.
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Cold/dry is the worst combo.
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Models are keen on the change beginning Dec 7/8 but snow chances won't be immediate. Could we avoid the Grinch storm this year? Signs point to yes
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If you're mad at the pattern going forward then you're just a troll or a warminista. But believe it or not most people would rather see warm & dry all winter so today's LR ensembles would be hellish for them.
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PNA will struggle to go positive in this pattern. I don't see suppression issues
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Nothing worse than seeing great potential and getting nothing for it. At least in a horrible pattern you already know what to expect.
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I'm sure you wouldn't want a 09-10 style block either. Probably why New England prefers a modestly negative NAO
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Blocking patterns are actually one of the easiest to forecast for models because they're so stable. Once models lock on they don't waver much Storms become easy to pin down as well shortly after. That's how you get weeks of snowy weather and strong consensus
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Also a big block like that could be around for a while. This isn't a transitory NAO block
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Impressive that the ensembles nailed the blocking though. However it takes time for the right pieces to fall into place. Too many try to rush the pattern change.
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This is the best December pattern I've seen in years. Things will get fun starting 2nd week of December when climo gets really good for everyone. Don't obsess about every run though. Enjoy the current pleasant weather instead
