SnoSki14

This winter has highlighted the importance of -NAO/AO blocking.

Good, models are trending warmer. No icy mess to deal with. HRRR takes low to buffalo

I'll take rain over an icy slop any day. The only time I don't mind sleet and ZR is if it's on top of a few inches of snow. It's good for snowpacks and that's about it.

Rgem was one huge mess Friday morning. Hope that's wrong and we just rain.

South of Newark

I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city.

You'd need substantial shifts south. At this point I'm hoping for north ticks to avoid the mess.

Oh great cold and dry in March. How wonderful.

GFS & GEFS most recently. There's not a lot of wiggle room given it's 4 days out and these SWFE love to keep ticking north.

Models are trending north though. Even SNE might get screwed here

Surface will be hard to warm given extensive high pressure. Thinking it'll be a big mess over here.

If the models were showing snow right now 4+ days out you'd be all in but suddenly they're 100% right this far out. I'd give it a couple days. I don't think snow is likely but I don't want to discount it either.

Yeah it's great if you live in Massachusetts.

We'll prob hit 70F or better Wednesday and then 35F Thursday. More crazy swings

You'd want higher heights extending towards Greenland because it would help pin the PV further south. The current setup allows the SE ridge to flex giving us either rain events or mixed precip. It's a good setup for areas further north though.

That's how it goes sometimes though there's a limit given the extensive high pressure up north. It wouldn't surprise me if the cold press was stronger but the wave could also amp up. It's tough to get a lot of snow south this time of year without strong Atlantic blocking.

They only average 28-30" and that's after the past 20 years of well above normal snows. Additionally this storm is still many days away so don't count your chickens yet. Personally I'm ready for spring and welcome the mild weather. I don't care for minor snow events that will melt the next day. Either go big or go home.

Hopefully they keep trending south

Got a quick dusting on everything and winds picked up. Temps also dropped about 10 degrees

Why do you even bother responding. It's the same ole routine. Every model could show a snowstorm and he'll point to one model that shows the least. It's so tiresome. Given the extent of the high pressure and deep cold I'd say a front end thump of a few inches is very possible. The risk is the wave becoming too amplified but even then a front end thump could still happen before any changeover. Keep an eye on the storm ahead of it. If that trends stronger then the cold press will be stronger which would cause the next system to be further south aka colder/snowier.

Meh wake me up in a week when the threat is at our doorstep.

GFS amping up Tuesday which would suppress the following system

Tomorrow should be another interesting day with possible snow squalls and another surge of strong winds.

Winds have been roaring all night. Nice squall line setting up too. Expecting even sharper winds with the squall and behind the front.

Snow squall potential Saturday afternoon with an arctic front? Lapse rates look very impressive. Very gusty too (55mph)