SnoSki14

Going back 365 days we're still a few inches below normal actually. Also with warmer waters we will likely see more, not less rain moving forward. Summer 2022 was an anomaly imo

Yeah early Feb could be good for us. Then we torch most of the month before one more favorable period late Feb to early March. 2 week winter

Mountain regions there average 200" so I would think they'd get snow. But you know it's bad when you have to go to interior NNE in late January to find snow.

There was a lot of talk about 95/96 & 10/11 back in early December and how great the pattern might be. NYC south has had a trace to no snow thus far. That's worse than even the ugliest winters and your region might be worse snow anomaly wise Additionally this will be the warmest January on record for many locations in the northeast. And the weather hasn't even been enjoyable either. Tons of clouds/rain this month...a prolonged mid March.

We'll easily catch it. Another +8 week coming up. We should blow past it You frequently mention how this is like the 80s...wrong it's a lot worse. The 80s were cold, this is another beast.

It did it with ease too. Just consistently well above average everyday which is the scary part. In the past even if there were a few record warm days, there would also be some cold to follow. Not anymore

It should be a lock then. How are other locations doing

You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked

Unless these big troughs keep dumping west. That'll definitely make the SE ridge stronger and even your area wouldn't be spared like 12z Euro shows What a disaster this winter has become

I think that's an exaggeration. Our last MECS was only 2 years ago. Eventually this will be the case but not yet. Sometimes you just get bad winters with bad patterns and that's it like the 80s or latter 90s. One thing we are seeing is much more extreme variations. If we do get zilch this winter I wouldn't be surprised if we get some crazy snowy winter next year.

Overrunning or SWE will be the best bet. I agree if the period doesn't produce the odds of a literal snowless winter for NYC goes up significantly

It's too early to say

It could be but with arctic cold pressing down that may trend better.

Weeklies are garbage after that. MJO turns to crap. I wouldn't doubt a record warm period in mid Feb. I do think cold/snow will return end of Feb/early March. Hopefully we take advantage of those good periods. SNE and points north has better odds of course as anyone further south is at the mercy of the SE ridge.

If you're relying on March to deliver then you're already screwed. I see two potential periods for snow. Early Feb and late Feb-early March. Could there be a fluke event outside of that sure, is it likely probably not.

I like early Feb. Cold bleeding south and clashing with SE ridge. Favorable snow climo and MJO 3 If it's gonna snow this season that would be the time. We had our big snowstorm 2 years ago around that time Brief window though. Pattern goes to shit after the 7th.

Early Feb will be the best chance of snow for the season. Cold air bleeding south and clashing against the SE ridge. These gradients can sometimes result in tons of snow. MJO phase 3 is also quite favorable for us and snow climo maxes out After that La Nina Feb fully takes over most likely with late Feb into early March the next chance at something. It would be hard to dodge the coming period with nothing. I doubt the futility records will stand.

That's not true at all. All the cold will shift to our side

Its been March since the Christmas cold

It'll only snow Wednesday if there's WAA overrunning ahead of it. Otherwise it's a wash Personally think early Feb has better odds

Nam trended more favorably for Wednesday.

Models are deamplifying the storm when in the past they've made them more amplified at this range. I'm not saying it'll work out but that something to be mindful of

I never said Wednesday is going to turn into a snowstorm. I said models are suggesting it could become a SWFE

We had a severely negative AO, a negative NAO and even a decent PNA for a time in December and it produced squat. Also see Tip's post in the New England subforum about how teleconnections don't play the same role as they did in the past in today's CC era. The TPV will be coming south with the cold shifting to our side of the globe. Whether that'll be enough to counter the SE ridging remains to be seen. Additionally the polar vortex is going to be taking a beating over the next 10+ days. That'll introduce uncertainty to the pattern. We're already seeing models deamplify the 25/26 system. Could turn into a SWFE

Ensembles shift the cold to our side of the globe. It wouldn't take much to break more favorable for us with strong gradient pattern possible. I would want to be further north though. SNE & points north could do really well