SnoSki14

When was the last time your region had a foot plus?

Not a bad thing that we're north right now. If the Euro is correct with the phasing idea then we would be closer to the jackpot totals vs mid Atlantic

What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day

Probably 13-14:1 at best. Ratios aren't about surface temperatures.

Ok I see it now

That's 12z I believe

Ceiling is quite high if we can get western energy to fully phase in. I think even if we don't we're probably looking at a 4-8" type system at minimum

Good sign that those have continued to improve. Someone loop the last 4-5 runs of it and the difference becomes abundantly clear.

Best part is there's no mixing threat.

Ensembles mean QPF of 0.5-0.9 at 5-6 days lead time is pretty darn good.

We have a lot more wiggle room than anyone north of CT.

If there's more phasing and a stronger SE ridge then that's very possible especially this far out where things are still trending

Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast.

The somewhat slower evolution is a big deal. It allows the high to erode some which will lead to north ticks. It also allows more phasing and energy to come in which slows down the storm and increases duration. With timing shifting more towards later Sun-Mon that will also increase impacts for all. So you go from a significant/major storm to a KU biggie

Euro AI with a nice hit. Models a bit slower (Sun into Mon) vs Sat evening/night into Sun. Slower is better for us as it allows high to weaken and lessens suppression risk