SnoSki14

Blocking looks really strong. GFS might be closer than you think

Very unusual setup for us. It's kind of a mix between a SWFE and Overrunning. Blocking looks really strong, you can see the shortwave get shredded as it comes east. But there's enough cold air and moisture in place before that happens for us

Grass is covered but it's mostly wet. 33F

Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong

I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us

Think this will favor SNE moreso than us but it's on the table.

I don't ever recall seeing a short term upgrade to a HWW, usually it's the opposite Wind events have definitely gotten more intense over the years

Not good for much more than a light snowfall

You'd need a lot of work still for the northeast to benefit. Maybe clippers and some SWFEs for now

I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge.

We need to stop comparing today to 35+ year old analogs. The climate has changed drastically. There are way too many variables in play today vs then.

I looked forward to his expertise the most so 100 percent agree!

9 out of 10 times he would've been right but not today.

Northeast is on the margins with expansive ridge located south central US rest of December. Stronger Arctic blocking would make a big difference as gradient patterns like this can be very active

That report tracks. Easily between 4-5" right now in Somerset and still coming down nicely. 6" is more probable. Much wetter snow than I expected