SnoSki14

This has legs I think. Really nice ridge out west. Just hope the flow isn't too fast

This week was always a long shot but I'd watch the 18th to see if models trend more favorably given the +PNA now setting up.

I like the ensemble trends. Actually not bad considering it's still 4 days out.

Yes by quite a bit. I guess that's all we can ask for right now.

I think odds remain low for a snow event with this storm but at least there's something to track

You can see how the GFS solution can happen but it also doesn't take much for it not to.

Agreed. It's too soon for us to benefit. I'd be shocked to see much snow prior to late Jan. If anything does come before then consider it a huge bonus. Maybe the only consideration I'd give is a storm could occur during the +PNA spike aka pattern transition zone.

Doesn't mean it will snow though. A CMC depiction is more likely. In fact until the MJO circles back around I wouldn't be surprised to see little snowfall until late Jan.

That's one of the craziest evolutions I've seen depicted.

What a crazy evolution that would be. Volatile weather pattern. Will see rapid run to run changes most likely.

It's not just bad luck. CC is affecting the weather patterns. This is why the Great lakes storm track has been so dominant and we've had a pacific jet on steroids over the last decade (record warm ssts western Pacific). The classic coastal track and even miller Bs have been practically non-existent for several years now.

Wish there weren't so many cooks in the kitchen and we had a clean PNA ridge because that's some explosive potential there.

PNA spike is huge but it needs to be sustained. Pacific jet still keeps knocking it down too quickly.

Inland runner but there's some big potential there.

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. Miller B potential?