SnoSki14

What amounts did the RAP show?

I'm from the county and the 18-25 was way too high. Much more reasonable now

Banding almost always ends up further NW than forecast. Unless you're in NE PA or something we're in great shape

Stop looking at models except HRRR. Start looking at radar. The storm is happening now.

Radar looks good to me. Temps ticking down slowly.

We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy.

Again ratios for a good 6-8hrs will likely be higher than 10:1 I'm playing it conservative but trust the NWS too. This is one instance where an overperformance wouldn't surprise me. How often do we see a 970mb low inside the BM.

The light precip and rain/mix for most will continue until around 4PM and then temps crash after that when the real storm arrives. Using the HRRR mostly from this point on.

One caveat is that ratios at the height of the storm could be closer to 12:1 vs 10:1 These CCB setups under intense coastals can really deliver the goods.

Every storm people panic day of. It's like clockwork. Oh it's starting as rain, oh it's too warm, oh it's too dry, amounts are too light, models are ticking east/west, it's not snowing yet, etc. And 90 percent of the time it's nonsense and means nothing.

It'll be there but the caveat is an inverted trough will be in place which could enhance totals on the western flank and lead to much less sharper cutoffs than we'd normally see. In addition I expect the strongest banding to be NW of where models have them as is almost always thr case.

Well if you keep going with the warmest winter and the least snowiest solution every time you'll eventually end up right.

They usually end up further NW than forecast

Images?

Isn't that one of the top analogs for this system?