SnoSki14

A Somerset, NJ BN Temperatures DJF Prolonged snow cover 2 Major Snowstorms + multiple clipper systems Ice build up on lakes/rivers On par with 13/14 and 14/15 and very close to 02/03 & 09/10 The only thing that kept it from an A+ was seasonal snow amounts were less than the stellar years like 10/11. Also 1st big storm had a bit too much sleet for my liking.

I'll think it'll warm up but ridging stays west and we'll be more prone to BDCFs. The month doesn't scream torch to me

GEFS catching up to EPS MJO moving into phase 8. Trough could trend stronger though without any blocking may be transient.

It's a short cool window. With AO staying positive, cool downs can't last

Next week will feel like a different world until reality comes back of course

Ends Sunday

-AO for sure, NAO I'm not as concerned about. What would be helpful is a list of all 4"+ NYC March-April storms and which teleconnections were present to get a better idea of what you'd need for late season snow.

There's no mechanism for that. AO needs to go negative and I don't see that. Colder air is WPO driven with PV on our side of the globe. Probably a lot of lakes cutters, active start to severe weather season

Oh it's definitely happening. Records will be shattered

Based off a LR OP run?

Euro gets to 8, no surprise its ensembles are a lot colder LR vs GFS

Next week especially midweek does look record warm. Is that exaggerated, perhaps but down in Jersey we saw 80F in Feb 2018 so it's definitely on the table. 80s to snow?

The problem is the PV is on our side of the world so it wouldn't take much for cold air to seep south. March is very fickle. We could touch 80+ and see snow a week later. We actually did that in 2018 when Feb saw 80 and then we know what happened next. I'm not saying we're getting snowstorms but the window hasn't completely closed.

It's mostly torchy. It'll cool off at times but signal is very warm. There's no 2018 style comeback coming

Huge differences in the shaded vs sun zones here. Shaded spots still have several inches while sun spots it's mostly grass.