mikeeng92

Thats a January 1940 track

MONSTER hit Saturday on the GFS

Ill take a pile of sleet followed by some nice round 2. Will look like winter around here for over a week.

2" in Tuckahoe. Coming down nicely now, .25" in 20 minutes.

The low is right where pretty much all the models had it

Nice for chesterfield. Still at maybe an inch in the west end. Subsidence

NAM is playing catchup, HRRR has been better so far

Looks like a nice snowy evening ahead of us. 2-3” by 3 am

GFS is a huge hit. Would be insane to lose out on this to the NAM.

Have to like a UK/EURO combo within 48 hours. Not saying we get that much but damn.

Everything looks great. Would like to get the NAM on board today though

Makes sense, these always come in early.

However, past events when dealing with marginal thermals have often trended towards more sleet/freezing rain as opposed to snow across much of the area. As such, confidence in precip types remains rather low. However, confidence in an impactful winter event with at least Winter Weather Advisory level snow/sleet/freezing rain has increased. Winter Storm Watches will likely be need for a portion of the FA (the highest confidence being along and N of I-64 with Richmond being in an area of greater uncertainty). However, per collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices, will hold off on any headlines for this update cycle and will reevaluate overnight. From Wakefield

Looks like pieces of confluence are working their magic

Wow. The 0z Euro is way south also with the 3" line in Petersburg. We have the A team of Euro/UK vs GFS/ICON

lol. Looks like it amps the confluence and weakens the vort at the perfect time

oh heyyyy

Still holding out hope for 1-3” followed by some sleet then more dry slot than rain. Would be quite a welcome after the last few years and most likely stick around for some time.

NAM coming into range and shows a nice front end thump Sunday night. Will ride or die with the NAM

Welp the 18z euro takes away

The painful part of the storm is the heaviest snow is so narrow. I’m hoping we manage 2” before any precip cutoff or changeover.

12z UK is a very nice 6-10” across central VA. Best case scenario. I like where we sit right now with that block being a stable feature.

Would take this storm in a heartbeat and it was nice. But I remember busting low on that due to awful snow ratios. Nothing but needles.

You know this storm is real cause it’s showing the classic west end to RIC cutoff lol. just want to see a storm keep showing up, with blocking we’ll have chance