Lightning

Sorry to hear about your parents. I am nearing the point with mine all too soon as they approach 90 in the coming couple years. I just love the 4 seasons and this doesn't bother me (my wife hates it though). I will be honest, cloudy cold rains in April with t-storm west and south does drive me nuts!!! My nephew just moved to Florida as he hated northern weather!!

Wow that 83 you mention; nice: Great to see you getting slammed there. I loved getting the massive storms in the Keweenaw!!

If you hate the weather here then why do you live here? Plenty of jobs in Florida.

All the models are now trying to figure out what is going to happen as Sara is no longer going to impact that next system nearly as much as previously expected. Got to love the chaos

Living in Houghton and the Keweenaw it was very common that it would snow to the south a few times before finally getting anything of value due to the 'warmth' of Superior.

You would love my drive. I watch the temperature impact of large buildings, paved roads, dirt roads, farms, lakes, elevation and so on. It is fun to watch. Urbanization does have its impact on local events.

The 2019 storm was awesome widespread 8-12" storm for most of SE MI!! November 2018 ah yes there were several snows but most were 1-3" event. roardog I think you recall the 2018 post-Thanksgiving event had a one of the bullseyes on your area. Flint area Nov. 2018 ended up more snow than Nov. 2019 but Nov. 2019 had the greater storm.

Here is the confirmed tornado report: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/November10_24HollyTornado That cell basically went over my house. It was windy here.

It was definitely great to have it nicely rain 3-4 hours.

Decent rain event this morning 3/4"

I think he meant 11/24/31

I'll buy what the 12Z GFS is selling.

If you are looking for all three month DJF to be below normal temps and above normal snowfall. Yep it has been over 5 years as the last below normal December's was 2017. 2017-18 was a remarkable winter around here as Flint broke it all time record snowfall. I can say my last decent winter IMBY was 21-22 was well above normal snowfall with both Jan. 22 and Feb. 22 being cold and snowy. Keep in mind lots of cold doesn't always equate to lots of snow. 1995-96 with it cold DJFM (all 4 months were below normal). Yet snowfall was abysmal with most of it coming in March. Detroit ended '95-'96 with 27.6" which is just a few inches more snow that Super Nino winter of 1997-98 @23.5" and last year's 22.6". Like you, I much prefer it to be both cold and snowy However I will take mild and snowy/stormy over cold and dry!!

It was interesting to see a good westward & stronger trend with this system after seeing so many be faster and weaker in recent months/years.

My total is now up to 1/2". Yeah, thankfully many areas in MI did well. Once the significant shift west with this system occurred in the models, the results are actually better then I expected. Many times, I have seen these MO/IA/WI flooding rain events produce nothing more than a clouds and drizzle IMBY.

I have maybe 0.29" for the entire event so far.

Here is an interesting Climo fact: Nov. 1975 (Edmond Fitzgerald sunk on the 10th) and Detroit had 1/2 the month 60F++. Then around the last week of the month we had a couple cold days and snow. Month was way above normal temps and way above normal snowfall No worries; it is coming. I would rather get a great pattern change and lock in for the most part, rather than a 1-2 week pattern change and then go right back to crap.

November is not a 'winter' month. Yes winter weather happens and there are some great historic November events. If your expectations is for solid winter weather you are going to be greatly disappointed with November.

I have a friend that pretty much, if there is grass showing, he is golfing. Yes he will golf in the 20s & 30s!!! Not me, honestly 60s are my lower limit.

We definitely 'cooled' from where we were. Obviously there was not a cross polar flow but rather Canadian air that moved in the end of last week. The reality was that Canada was not 'cold' just cooler. Now the MJO is going down to COD. Our current pattern is reflecting that and the Pacific jet is ruling the roost!! Slam storms into west coast of Canada and we are not going to be cold!! MJO is my go to metrics when moderate/strong for the pattern (but you surely can't ignore other factors). The MJO near/in COD means look elsewhere for what driving the pattern.

Phase 2-3 are not cold phases in November & December while phases 7-8-1 are best for cold in November & December for MW & GLs. I put the MJO temp correlation for OND below. Correct!

MJO:

Drove through there in September. It was truly Exceptional!!

I have been very busy that past couples days and the models have shifted significantly west with the rain. My QPF for the next 3 days gone from a few inches to a few hundredths of an inch!!! Good part is today I can get more leaves mulched up with some nice mild temps

Are you saying those 110F models runs were inaccurate for our area???