Lightning

Used to live in Macomb county. I would never want to spend a winter there again.

I was really hoping things would improve as that the heavier band that went over the Chicago land area moved in. It seems to have only filled in the radar while dropping in intensity. Flake size has been meh at best as ratios look to be still 10:1 here.

Post Alert. Feb 2nd 12Z GFS says we can basically repeat this all over starting hour 270. Even has a really good Chicago LES band by hour 312.

Classic timing for DTX.

Not surprised. Radar has looked pretty good from about Lansing to GRR to Benton Harbor

Yeah. It seem the best Jet dynamics are to our west as RCNYILWX discussed on page 2 in this thread. So it appears that wave 1 is better to our west and wave 2 is now well south. I think we get 6-8" but I fully understand your reservations.

Understood. Most of them show that I would have 2" on the ground already but I have about 1". I understand that if ratio game works out I will bust low. I'll take that risk. My experience is the ratio game works a lot better on storms that my temps start in the teens to mid-20s. Warmer rain to snow scenarios have tend to have more issues obtaining great ratios (they can but many don't). My weather station temp right now is 31.9F.

Yeah. Models showed a changeover by 4 am. Actual was was 6 am. Really like my call for 6"-8".

Still pure rain.

Had a couple good storms that started as pouring rain that changed to snow. My favorite was suppose to end as snow but changed early. Had thundersnow. Final amount was 14".

around 4am here ... eternity

I wasn't alive for the 67 storm but I was for 78. EPIC storms for sure. Peoples memory of the storms are also EPIC. There was likely a lot of snow already on the ground in GRR area in January as 77-78 was a big winter overall. Couple things to consider when listening to the stories. 1) Most people are not weather geeks like us so take all details with lots of salt. 2) The news media talked about the Jan 78 blizzard for days. News media over glorifies everything (got to get you to watch) and it totally influences people perceptions.

I would expect it will start 10:1 (once it is snow that is) and end around 18:1 as the cold get more entrenched.

Exactly. Wave 1 looks great!! Wave 2 without a NW trend is almost out of the picture for SE MI.

Bingo!! While historic would be wonderful there is a reason they are historic.

My warning ends at 7AM Thursday so they at least are including it in my warning (now we need a north trend ).

It is turning more and more into a spread the wealth type storm as the 2nd wave is more SE of the 1st wave.

Second wave keeps trending south. IMO the 12"+ totals are not likely in this area but 6"+ will paint the DTX area.

Like my call for 6-8" for MBY.

DTX night crew punts the warnings to the day crew.

Looking forward to some fresh snow skiing!!

There is a big difference with how they handle the Vort around the 4 corners area.

Except back then the storm would be hitting Duluth by the 6z run

Bingo. Ah Marion it explains why we sometimes have different results in the same county.

I am in the northeast corner of Livingston county in the hills!!