Lightning

There is water everywhere up here. Yards are ponds, ice, snow and patchy grass. In my upper yard there is 2" of crunchy snow and/or solid ice (except under the trees which are frozen grass & water that is now turning to ice). Walking in the yards is tricky. I miss step and you'll end up on you butt in no time. The lake dam is flowing like Niagara . Agreed. Next part of the storm please to cover up this mess!!

Sadly nope!!

1.2" on my rain gauge this morning. Just dropped below freezing right as the rain ended.

I am not disagreeing with you though IMBY I have had a bit better luck getting in the bigger storm totals. The reason I left is the constant model disappointment (plus I had too many things on my plate but that is whole other story). I loved the surprises we got in the 70s-90s (even into the 00s). The forecast of 40s and rain and then wake up to several inches of snow. Of course the the other way around happened too. Let's face it we are not really surprised like that at all any more. We have model after model output every hour of the day. Then every significant snowstorm seems to have Kuchera output at some point of 20-30+ inches with it shifting just enough to give hope to many but leaving most people disappointed in the end. Models are great but the output is mostly unrealistic. I totally agree about this south trend (NW trend was easier to deal with for some reason). In recent winters it really seems the model updates have caused the models to make every storm more significant and then weaken them as we approached reality time. I think/wonder that it also has to do with phasing. We have not had one of those classic well phased snowstorm in this area in the past few years. A big dog will hit us. Problem is the models will make the big dog into beyond historic storm.

Hope

GFS ... garbage for sale.

Yeah it is pretty common for SE MI. I am very used to the snow cover melting just before a big dog moves in.

I'd show MBY but it is actually a lake so of course it looks like a lake ...

Oh yeah. If sunny it would be going very quickly!!! Pretty standard though for this area that the snow pack get nearly wiped out before the changeover occurs with these type of systems.

Sun

On the northern edge now. Going 4-6" but honestly my snow excitement has tanked as weaker / SE seems to be the continued trend.

Last summer was a great thunderstorm summer June all the way into September IMBY. If I recall we had a good October thunderstorm too. But not far to our west the drought was bad (sw corner of MI). I have noticed that many of my best thunderstorm summers that Chicago and points west tend to be in a drought.

It means we will need a model update so we won't know the biases.

I have a very different perspective with the models. They are much improved within 72 hours (honestly within 120 hours). Yes there are difference and each models have biases. No they are not perfect. Living through the 70s, 80s and 90s and even somewhat into the 00s. It was common with 24 hours to have a 6-12" forecast of snow to verify as a T-2" wiff or be mostly rain (or the opposite would occur). Surprise last second storms rarely happen any more.

NAM =

West Branch is like a on/off switch for snow. So many drives through West Branch area in which north of it has snow and then south of it barely any!!

I totally understand that dilemma for Grand Marais!! You are right it is very remote with your choice is Munising or Newberry. Neither of which are Marquette or Houghton that is for sure It helps that we have good friends in Deer Park area. Key thing to liking tourists ... make money off them

Grand Marias = where I would like in MI if I retire here (not likely).

Less the 25-35" amounts

Agreed ground temps will not warm much because of a few hours above freezing unless it is full sunny day. Trees do however (maple syrup experience) warm relatively quickly so they will take at least a little extra time to get icy (not like I am talking hours). In these situations (warm => cold ice storms) I find it a lot to do with how quickly temps drop. Ice accretion with temps in 30-31 range is definitely hampered by the heavier rate. Once you get 28 or below then I find ice accretion and rates go hand in hand.

Yesterday was so so up this way as I got like an inch (it was divided up in 2 half inch events). Mostly pixie dust falling. Just to my north barely anything. Not to far south got a few inches. Win some and lose some.

While a lot can change; I will say I do like the set-up myself.

18z GFS nearly identical ... . Not saying it will happen but funny to see the GFS and Euro nearly identical 180 hour out ...

I wish I could have gone. I know my niece is going there now and sent pictures. Have a great time they will be awesome!

It's funny how averages are made. My sister lives on the other side of the state. 90s were terrible snow years in SE MI but LES on the west side was good. The past several years not the LES has been more or less shut down (occasional great events but exception more than rule). I think it has a lot to do with the patterns/oscillations we have been in. The traditional Alberta clippers just have not occurred in recent years (they have been scarce). You know it will return but when, I honestly thought this was going to be the year but obviously NOT.