Lightning

Agree #16

Exactly.

There are certain areas that get the most in the UP. Negaunee & where Bo lives is one of those hot spots for sure.

Oh the day (we are no where near) when we get away for all the agendas, politics and money driven science. Until then most of this stuff being published is just

Ended up with the biggest sleet storm I have ever experienced with a good inch and a half of sleet. Being mix with freezing rain it is a solid mass on the ground. Trees have some good ice them but definitely not as bad as it could have been. Looks like we should warm up above freezing before the stronger winds kick in but still more power outages is a concern.

Similar here too. Only the past couple hours here has it been more rain than sleet.

Approaching 32F here. Looks like the HiRez models were correct getting MBY up to 32F.

I am willing to bet for some areas that would be a yes. MBY is luck so far as I have mostly been sleet (as you know sleet just bounces off the trees) with some ZR. Currently I have had >1/2" of sleet with ZR icing at <0.1" Temp IMBY is ~30F.

Temps have come up a couple (still below 32) as the precip rates dropped the past 90 minutes. Radar is filling in nicely now. Next couple hours are going to tell tale for who gets what in the various locations throughout southern MI.

Keep some form of ridge in the SE and have it fight that strong cold from the north => we could have some fun

Outside of Morch it has been a while since March has been anything exciting around here. April's have been more fun!!!

Sleet fest here. Ground is getting covered as it is turning a sleety white.

What was weird about 00-01 was there were some local events in parts of Oak & Macomb counties that made it not so bad (as FNT and DTW) the rest of winter along the M59 corridor (still a bit frustrating after such an incredible start).

Sadly this has been the trend with the models (I.e. show historic storms then go down to reality). Your getting an awesome storm but the historic model runs make you feel robbed.

I love the last sentence the best: Unfortunately these three points remain fairly nebulous and really won`t be known until the event actually begins.

April 2003 was an incredible event. The Christmas 2013 was pretty bad here IMBY in NE Livingston County. Some of my neighbors trees still show damage (still recovering major branches). I will say it was very cool as it was my first white and very crystal Christmas!!

Sounds a lot better than just a cold rainy (icy) day.

Surface Temps around here are closer to the warmer HiRes models.

If there was some 1055 high pressure to the NNE of Lake Huron this was crashing into. I would have some hope. Of course then I would dry air issues

Marginal temps + full on city=> makes sense

Very true about QPF and it seems to be worse but there always seems to be a place or two that it is close.

I remember that 1991 storm as I was at MTU (Mich. Tech) during that event ... it was a big miss for the UP. I was also visiting my cousin around the Twin Cities during the Dec 1982 event. That was a major storm with over waste deep snow where we were (reports from were we were staying were over 2') and there were 4'-5' drifts that we made snowforts then connected them all by tunnels. Wisconsin had a major ice storm that took several days to clean up with many closed roads. We left 2 days after the storm to go home (SE Mich) and there were still major traffic issues in parts of MN and WI.

Not sure I would have a tree in my yard left if 12Z RGEM solution was correct. >2-3" of ice.

Technically, meteorological spring start March 1st.

Unless there is some changes in the models in the next 24 hours I think this is going to be mostly a cold rain for us south of 96-69 line. I just don't agree with the colder surface temp solutions.