Lightning
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Everything posted by Lightning
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It is soo true with this one!!
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The one thing I like about this storm is the potential for few good hours of 2"/hour rates.
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Looking at the dynamics with this storm I believe heavier rates will be there! Plus heavy wet snows seems to be the norm this winter here.
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Baby steps.
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It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread.
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received sleet this morning so this is my 3rd system with sleet in 7 days
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One thing to consider is that the biases of each model used to be known very well by many. In the past 10 or so years the models get updated more frequently and the biases are just not as well known. Just as you begin to learn a model biases nowadays it seems to get updated.
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The track is most important IMO. Precip will typically fall into place.
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If we don't get a few porn runs than it wouldn't be a good model
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Lock it now!!
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Well I would take the RGEM 18Z run with ~8-12" for our area.
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The -NAO is good. Just wish we had a bit of a -AO or really a neutral one.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Lightning replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I'll take active as it at least gives a chance at something happening -
Shows you the progression:
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All the models are showing is the storm peaking well prior to MI. This is never a good sign for MBY.
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ZR = extremely pretty but damage and power outages likely. PL = not pretty at all but no damage or power outages. From a pure weather event enjoyment stand point I would take the ZR ice storm every time. The damage and power outage just make an ice storm an event one I both love and hate. In the end my pick ... snow!!
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Yeah. I have seen enough ZR/PL for one season. I am hoping this next storm is snow too.
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Similar here. More ice than sleet with this one. More winds too during the ice.
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Also DTE doe not have everyone north of M59. Consumer Energy also has some of the territory. Like my neighbors literally across the street are full CE while I am DTE electric but I have CE natural gas. So I am sure they are talking their service area more than anything else
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With some of those placements there is a possibility I could end up with 3 true ice and sleet storms all within 9 days ...
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Lock it in
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I can agree for South of M59 corridor but not for M59 and northward. Christmas 2013, April 2003 just to name a few (there were a couple others in the 70s/80s).
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Crazy day as it is still ZR mixed with sleet IMBY. I now have more or nearly the same amount of ice than I did last week but of course last week was mainly a sleet fest for me. I am praying we keep power with these howling winds and icy trees.
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Yeah I am not yet sold this will be that far north. My observation is the models trends to a north supper juiced solution that then slow sink south and not as juiced. Heck right now I have another sleet and ice storm occurring which 3 days ago the models just had rain & 40s. Plus the NAO is negative right now which tends to support some suppression.
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Icy again here. Little bit nervous with the strong winds. Temps currently at 31F so it should get above 32F soon.
