Lightning

There is one thing I do like about this one compared to today is 500 mb Vorticity is more defined for the weekend event. Todays event is a lot more scattered about at the 500mb level. Hopefully we don't have as much of a negative trend.

Just north and west of me did better. Wonder how Flint / Lansing / Battle Creek line had an area of snow for a good couple hours. Going to be interesting to see all the reports as I expect there is going to be quite the range of results in the end.

Looks great but am very tempered because today's system has me gun shy.

Sitting at an 1.5" right now. Snow intensity is very variable.

This is how I feel watching radar:

It was a nice burst that is for sure.

Several areas west of Michigan are expecting 3-5" are under a WSW. Michigan has 4-7" as a WWA (per guidelines). Like you say the classification has no meaning only the results matter

I will give them this; the didn't cancel the watch yet for the eastern counties. They just might be catching on how to do it for our area

I also wonder if it has to do with how dry it has been. Not getting all that additional frozen precip falling into the lakes. Kinda like a glass of water cools faster with ice being added than just sitting in a cold room.

Thanks!! I honestly only use the 10:1 ratio when looking at the models. I only see the Kuchera when someone posts here (stopped looking at those a long time ago). My thought is anything above the 10:1 model look is bonus snow!!

I believe it had more do to with us knowing the biases. We knew the NW trend would continue until the bitter end. We knew the QPF could be cut to 60%. We knew if the EURO and GFS were different than ignore the GFS. I mentioned in an earlier post that several model update have left us with a lot less trust in any one solution. There is a lot more weak and further south with some occasional stronger further north. The biases have become difficult to predict (though generally I think we are seeing more weaker and further south overall than we were ever used to).

Makes not sense for watch IMO. They must be banking on a solid NW shift from all the major model guidance and buying the NAM 12k.

Ha. Sheboygan WI for me for MCS. Milwaukee seems to always head down to AA then into DTW.

Yes that was very true especially in the 2000-2015ish era. I would like to note that some time after 2015 there were some significant model updates that seemed to kill off the significant NW trend we used to see. Now it seems there are some NW trends and some SE trends and some that pretty much stay the same. Not saying this one is set in stone at all rather the overwhelming NW trend we used to experience is not what it used to be.

It's funny I have the landmark places all picked out where I need to low to go with the various types of storms. Toledo wouldn't be bad for me either; it just puts me on the southern edge of the defo band (great reward comes with great risk ).

Cedar Point is the best case scenario for me that is for sure for this type of storm.

ICON, ICON, ICON!!!

I haven't looked at the SREF in a couple years now. They were more comical than useful for snow IMO.

Agreed; I would prefer not to get ice storm either!!! The Vort at 500mb is not closing off and remain progressive. The shifting in the models seems to more related to the Vort placement. I don't think there is much further NW it can go. Of course it is the weather

Got to love it. Today the GFS goes weaker/South and Euro goes north/stronger. . I'll take the RGEM . Wouldn't be fun without the model chaos.

Being the Euro at least I have a chance it could happen. If it was the GFS it would be a flat 0% chance

Light stuff has begun here a bit ago . The models last night were basically giving me nothing. Hopefully 1" or so will fall!!

Sadly the model just are not that good especially at the surface in the mid/extended for this area. The past few years I personally have treat anything they show at the surface beyond 60 hours is just pure . Like playing the lotto; you know your not going to win but just the daytime dreaming of winning it is why many play it! The main thing I get is that this is going to be more active than we seen all winter and there is definitely potential for some decent events!! Much better odds

Fixed

GFS today has joined the party