Lightning

Just got going again here. When I woke it was ice pellets and graupel; now actual quarter sized flakes.

So for this winter the 10:1 have been fairly good for my area (keep in mind that is not the actual ratio but it works out). But I only use them and stopped looking at the others as they are more like porn!! I was not expecting 18"as that would be foolish. My hope was 8-12" (i.e. 10") total based on all the trends and potential being shown yesterday. While it could still happen I think it best to temper my expectations to 4-6" and hope for comeback as the 12Z NAM showed

Sad. I was really hoping this would have been a W to E 6-10" system for many. Turn into a crazy chaos and suddenly a nail bitter over here.

Last night was not as surprising to me. It is like summer with the nocturnal storms. When they are robust in IL and WI, when they arrive over here they are typically a dud. Things were to redevelop significantly this morning into the after noon with 2-4" expected throughout the day but now the HRRR is has strongly gone way from that. Went to bed with most models outputting 10-18" for the whole event. Wake up today with several models now showing 3-5" for the event. Let just say I am nervous to see the 12Z run.

My guess is northern OH will do best out our this system.

Not looking good. Oh well. Today's 3-4 is now in tenths of an inch. . We'll see how tonight goes but my hopes are pretty rock bottom right now.

Glad to hear the thump is overperforming for you all Edited Oops misspelled

Is it ever past rush hour in Chicago

Crazy long LES band of Lake Michigan off the back side of the storm. This could set up some areas in SW MI into IN nicely.

If I recall the changes made by NWS recently is 7" in 12 hours and 8" in 24 hours to be a warning in Michigan. So WWA seems correct at this point.

WAA might be fun tomorrow. I like the set up of this one.

I agree this is how it should be done too. The 500 mb Vorticity is not closing off. If it did than the strength of this system would be relatively more of a slam dunk!! This will be a lot more now casting event as strength and orientation of the Vorticities are actualized coming out of the Rockies into the MW. I think the more traditional closed off systems are a bit easier.

Might need to read that again. 3-4" through 8PM Saturday.

Crazy how different it is just a state away!! I hope the WAA gets going enough which benefits you too!!!

I am hoping this is one that come together right over head. I have to admit my excitement had already started

I do like that this could be a prolonged storms with36+ hours of snow falling!!

This board is so much more fun when there are storms!!!

It took me a bit over 2 hours myself. I have a ~170 meter long driveway. Doesn't help that I had to clear off 6 vehicles too. Nice!! You have a great snow pack. I'm sitting at good 9" pack.

Do you do an overall start to finish total or do you use the NWS board method? Just wondering. I do start to finish.

After the initial WAA, I notice there is going to be a lot of southern convection with this one. Looks like more than even yesterdays storm. I am concerned the models are struggling with some convective feedback. Plus the north side of the storm getting some moisture disrupted from convection as it begins to wind up.

Awesome!! Once the system started to develop more it really help over here. It was not looking so good (blotchy radar look) as it got going. Around 6PM things started to finally get more organized / filled in.

A good 6" fell here with ~10" on the ground. While it was looking dicey early in the event it really picked up after 6 PM. Looking back at the models, the 10:1 ratio maps were the best (even though ratios were not 10:1 per say). Yeah there were runs that were were much higher / lower but the majority of the runs had this area 5-7".

Currently sitting a bit over 3".

I think that has a lot to do with it. When there are tons of tstorms, like there are, it disrupts the moisture transport to the northern part and we get this blotchy radar look.

Definitely a side of me hoping the developing low shown by the models was going to help our area today do better but it 'seems' organization was slower.