Lightning

Overperformed here. 3-4". Had to shovel. Beautiful winter scene right now. While no major storms, I have enjoyed the several weeks.

DTW was 28" ... much below average (45") Flint was 39" ... below average (52") Saginaw was 69" ... much above average (49")

Thankfully I was in the northern burbs of Detroit that year and got plenty of snow. I was a bit young to remember the spring details but a quick look at the numbers it shows March, April and May '77 were overall mild.

Can you imagine of being in Saginaw during the 76-77 winter with a grand season total of 18.5" of snow?? Don't think anyone there looks back at that year with any grand memories of being buried

Got it. I am in the wrong place to talk about the Stratosphere, MJO, teleconnections, analogs and so on.

I know you but I wonder how many people recall Detroit had 13 days above freezing in December 2013 . Even the Dec. 1976 Detroit Dec. had 10 day above freezing.

I am not sure why putting the Stratospheric Warming signal in the long range discussion is considered as Trolling.

Last year was horrible in that even if one signal was warm it WON!! It is nice to see there is more fight this December for the cold signals. I don't believe we will follow the same path of Dec 1989 => 1990. I think we will be seeing some Strat warming as we get into later part of December. I believe/hope we are headed for some fun ahead this winter. One thing is for sure the weather does things differently every year.

Love it. Pretty much matches my expectations for next several weeks. Really hoping we can get the cold to come back by the 25th but agree it it probably too quick based on the MJO forecasts.

What a dumbass who posted this!!!

Understood!

Excited to have cold end of Nov. into early Dec. Hopefully Lake Michigan provides some decent LES starting Friday into next week. Beyond that MJO is currently beginning to go into 4-5-6. Those are not cold phases especially as you get into the heart of December!! What is worse is the models are starting to shows it dragging and possibly stalling in 5. Blast on through those phases and it would be fine but stalling / dragging through them . If the MJO doesn't change or another signal take over then mild will return mid-month December. I am excited for the next couple weeks and believe there should get some snows out this even though the Thanksgiving storm has gone south on us. Hopefully the actual MJO will not follow the models well and move quicker toward Phase 7 or dive into COD.

Don't take me wrong. My comments were mostly referring to the constant changes we are seeing the models. Just this 12Z run alone is a bit better overall. My point was that while are seeing variable cold runs in which there are some mild signals which I believe is causing the model variability. If the MJO ends up more around/in the COD, instead of moderate in the warm phases, that will help allow other colder signals to have more pattern power. You know I want it blistering cold with lots of LES and super-clippers!!

No sustained blocking. Pacific is a bit of mess. MJO going into warm phases a bit. December may start with some cold but unless something changes it will progress to mild during first half of December.

Sorry to hear that you didn't get any. I did better than I thought would occur as it snowed nearly all day here with occasion moderate rates. It came in pulses and in between the pulses there was some milky sunshine that would cause the temperature to jump a quickly above freezing. Melting would occur until the next batch of moisture would move in drop the temp and it would snow. Most of the day thing were coated but by 3-4PM the temps stayed above freezing and with the warm ground temps and it was all gone by 4PM even with light snows continued on and off a few more hours.