eurojosh
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Everything posted by eurojosh
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Welp. Gonna take my chances and hope it's not a total washout.
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Totally self-interested question: I'm booked the last week of Jan at Timberline, based on that having been a great window the last couple of years (including one morning last year when it was -30 before dawn!!!). Am thinking I might push it back to the first week of Feb, or cancel all together at this rate. Don't have to make a final call until a week out (so, 10 days from now), but welcome folks thoughts!
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Ah yes the annual "will it stick if it was 60 yesterday" debate, a hallmark of this board.
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Never ceases to amaze me that climate change remains a topic of debate on this board. Like, I realize that drawing a line to the precise effects is difficult, if not impossible, and that our local Wx, including annual snowfall, is not representative or necessarily indicative of any specific climate-change-induced global pattern, but when folks pop up to say it has no measurable effect on our Wx whatsoever (in the winter precip context) I'm always somewhat flabbergasted.
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Not to belabor the statistics, but I'd be curious to see an analysis of how much snow in each season was a result of 'big' storms (either as a function of amount - say 6"+ or as a function of percent - say, 33% of seasonal snowfall) as opposed to spread out over multiple smaller events; my sense is that climate change reduces our overall odds of frozen precip and bunches what does fall into increasingly atypical large events - but I've no idea if the data would bear that out or not.
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It'd certainly be more in line with our climo to get winter precip on the back end of a departing HP than on the front end of it - and we sweat the ptype as the warmup follows.
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18Z GFS looks the same through hr6.
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...And a (mostly) rain storm for BOS? Not fully buying this solution yet.
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I've been off this forum for a couple of years but 1 observation and 1 Q Observation - re MLK weekend, I think GFS is doing that thing where it sniffs out a storm in the LR, loses it, and eventually claws it back a week or so out. We'll see. Question - what happened to Ji?
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
eurojosh replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
more fail line than fall line amiright -
All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way?
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A fair amount of wishcasting going on in the December thread on how to make the GFS and Euro look like the GEM....
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Icon well positioned for the same just after the run ends. Would be surprised to still see this as a possibility after a couple more runs, though - I don't think our climo is as favorable as it was in 1987...!
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How is it possible no one is posting about the 18z gfs?
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Just got done with a jebdrive around Potomac and Bethesda (not yet enough on the ground for a jebwalk). Couldn't stop in time for my driveway and had to go around the block again. Good times.
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Perhaps bump-worthy?
