tarheelwx
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Everything posted by tarheelwx
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RAH has issued 2 WSW’s this year and neither came close to verifying. I think they should this time but wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t. TW
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I suspect we'll see ISW's going up over the next few hours. I guess RAH could make an argument for staying at an advisory, but that seems a bit of a stretch. Every model I've seen on the 12z or later runs are showing warning criteria zr in the triad. For fun, check out the new Euro at 144........ let the trend begin. TW
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Just dropped to 30.9 here in Colfax. NAM has us bottoming out at 29 tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to see what NWS does about advisories/warnings for later tonight and tomorrow morning. TW
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31.6 and light freezing rain in Colfax. Trees are getting coated. Still a nice covering of sleet on the deck. TW
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31.6. My deck looks to be covered in sleet here in Colfax about 5 miles from GSO. Did anyone else in the triad get sleet? TW
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Both 12km and 3 km at 18z have warning criteria ice over the triad by 10am tomorrow. TW
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That's a right good amount of ice down into the triad. TW
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Do you have any zr maps? TW
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Solid thunder just now in Colfax. TW
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Why are we not getting the true CAD wedge? For instance, the maps above show Durham more at risk than Mt Airy. Seems if a true CAD, Hickory to Mt Airy should be the heart of the freezing rain. TW
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And wouldn't it be an ice storm warning rather than a WSW? TW
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I thought it was .25, but I saw something recently saying it was .20 - could have been for another area west of the Apps thought. TW
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For the triad, it was the iciest out of the last 6 runs for tomorrow morning. 12km has .21 and 3km has .23 at GSO. TW
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Meso hp maybe? TW
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I remember a devastating ice storm up in Wytheville back in the mid 90's or so. Every yard I drove past had some sort of tree damage. Probably at least an inch of ice or so. TW
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Just keep in mind, we've seen alot of doomsday ice forecasts over the years that really just don't pan out - maybe due to sleet, maybe it's a bit warmer, maybe the precip is a bit lighter. Hopefully that's the case here. TW
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This has been happening for 2 months. So I'd say it's very possible. TW
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Very interesting that the NAM shows the wedge retreating around daybreak on Saturday, but then digging back in as the morning wears on. I"m not sure I've ever seen that. Maybe the low is transferring to the coast and negating the surge of warm air? TW
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Somebody's got to say it. 00z NAM is a bit weaker with the low and the wedging is a bit stronger on Friday night. TW
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I would have gone with 0.10” as that may be most accurate and would get more attention. TW
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Burrel, I think you're pretty spot on there. I liked the Euro except that I think it is missing the redevelopment off the SC coast. I think that redevelopment will reduce the surge of warm air and help lock the cad in a bit more. TW
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Instead of a 999 over Cincinatti, you have a 1008 over Atlanta. TW
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The low is about 6mb weaker and a bit further south (or maybe just slower?) and the hp is just a bit stronger, maybe 1mb. Definitely a trend to a colder more wintry possibility. TW
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Yep. A little bit colder and further south and east with the cold. Not alot though. TW
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The canadian is showing more of what I think will transpire with a low a bit further east that will transfer to the coast a bit quicker. At this time of year, I don't expect to see a surface low run up the tennesee valley as far as some models are showing. A much quicker transfer to the coast will happen (miller b style). TW
