tarheelwx

The further out the models forecast, the less accurate they are. Think of the climate models from 10-15 years ago showing us embarking on a dustbowl, yet here we are being quite wet overall in the southeast over the last 5 years. TW

What had looked like a long term major thaw now looks like a run of the mill thaw. No guarantees yet thought. TW

Just goes to show that early February is not set in stone in any way shape or form as of yet. TW

Stark changes in the 12z GFS eh? TW

I've had a few flakes in Colfax. 36.0. TW

Perfect. That's exactly what I was looking for! TW

I could use some input from you guys in the NC mountains. My first grandchild is due to arrive February 5th in Boone. My wife and I are considering buying a house up that way, but don't want to be right in Boone - but probably within 30-40 minutes of the Boone/Blowing Rock area. What areas would you recommend in order to experience the best (snow) of NC mountain weather? I'm thinking of which areas do really well with NW flow events as well as synoptic events. Thanks in advance. TW

The upper midwest, northeast, and SE Canada should be getting a pretty good snowpack over the next couple of weeks. TW

Does that mean we now have an official SSW rather than just a forecast event? TW

To add some perspective to the above map.

The Larry storm is on the radar. TW

Light snow here in Colfax NC. TW

Couldn't agree more. I think the operationals have done pretty decent. The ensembles were run by Lucy this year. TW

The ensembles have been equally abysmal. There have been quite a few times that folks on here doubted the warmth of the operational runs by referring back to the ensembles (which were colder) and saying that we should really be using the ensembles at that particular range. In those cases, the warmth of the operationals won out. Just saying. TW

Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals. So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid? Feel like Lucy is back at it again. TW

Where's the moisture? Nobody wants cold and dry at this point - no peaches, no blueberries, etc. TW

Quite the change in the 12z GFS beginning late next week. TW

Despite the SSWE and the ensembles, the models pretty much show the pattern of the last 2 months to continue for the next 10 to even 15 days. At this point, I’d just as soon move on into spring rather than have a massive killing freeze or a “warm” snowstorm that will hang on the leafed out trees. TW

The pattern has been unbelievably consistent. What a winter out west though. TW

Does Larry work @ CPC?

Spot on. TW

Good read. Thank you for sharing. TW

Every cold shot this winter, even the Christmas cold to an extent, was a pretty quick in and out. The cold would become less and less on the models as we got closer to verification time, and the "cold" (what little there was) was almost immediately flushed out. Even the cold from this past weekend only lasted 24 hours or so. It seems the PNA is probably the most important piece of the puzzle. Not absolutely required, but without it, you're pretty close to having to thread the needle to get any kind of winter event. Just look at the snow maps over the next 10 days and it seems pretty obvious that pacific air is just ripping across the southern 2/3's of the country. Until the PNA approaches neutral (or hopefully goes positive), I think we're out of luck. A few weeks from now, even the positive PNA won't be enough for many. TW

My gut tells me that unless we get a positive PNA, we’re not going to get significant cold weather - significant being cold enough to deliver a good winter storm. I think we could have a decent stretch of be low normal temps, but just a bit below normal in March isn’t the same as wing a bit below normal in January or the first half is February. Having said that, I’m holding out hop until March 15th. TW

My blueberry bushes look like they’re ready to pop open. They’ll probably open and then we’ll get a couple weeks of solid winter in March. TW