tarheelwx

We certainly can and do get ice in NC and even further south in late winter. However, the sweet spot for ice is earlier in the season. Can it happen? Yes. But prime time for ice starts slipping (joke there) away as we move through February and into March. At the same time, prime time for snow runs a bit later. TW

I think we are going to need some legit cold air. Right now, I'm not seeing anything notable through about 2/10. Hope I'm wrong. I'd really like to see a storm (snow or ice, I really don't care) with temps in the 20's as opposed to a 32/33 degree slop fest. TW

Easy to tell that the 00z and 06z runs were less then exciting. My recollection is that DT stated he considered N NC as part of the southern mid-atlantic region. I did a Google search for "mid atlantic region" and went to images. Most run from VA up to NY. However, there is certainly some variance - even TN made one map (from some doctor's group). The first image is from Wikipedia. So I'd say there's nothing set in stone as to where the borders for the mid atlantic region is. However, I beleive DT has clearly stated what he refers to as the southern extent of the mid atlantic. I'm not sure where he says the northern boundary is, but I don't really care as well.

The further out the models forecast, the less accurate they are. Think of the climate models from 10-15 years ago showing us embarking on a dustbowl, yet here we are being quite wet overall in the southeast over the last 5 years. TW

What had looked like a long term major thaw now looks like a run of the mill thaw. No guarantees yet thought. TW

Just goes to show that early February is not set in stone in any way shape or form as of yet. TW

Stark changes in the 12z GFS eh? TW

I've had a few flakes in Colfax. 36.0. TW

Perfect. That's exactly what I was looking for! TW

I could use some input from you guys in the NC mountains. My first grandchild is due to arrive February 5th in Boone. My wife and I are considering buying a house up that way, but don't want to be right in Boone - but probably within 30-40 minutes of the Boone/Blowing Rock area. What areas would you recommend in order to experience the best (snow) of NC mountain weather? I'm thinking of which areas do really well with NW flow events as well as synoptic events. Thanks in advance. TW

The upper midwest, northeast, and SE Canada should be getting a pretty good snowpack over the next couple of weeks. TW

Does that mean we now have an official SSW rather than just a forecast event? TW

To add some perspective to the above map.

The Larry storm is on the radar. TW

Light snow here in Colfax NC. TW

Couldn't agree more. I think the operationals have done pretty decent. The ensembles were run by Lucy this year. TW

The ensembles have been equally abysmal. There have been quite a few times that folks on here doubted the warmth of the operational runs by referring back to the ensembles (which were colder) and saying that we should really be using the ensembles at that particular range. In those cases, the warmth of the operationals won out. Just saying. TW

Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals. So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid? Feel like Lucy is back at it again. TW

Where's the moisture? Nobody wants cold and dry at this point - no peaches, no blueberries, etc. TW

Quite the change in the 12z GFS beginning late next week. TW

Despite the SSWE and the ensembles, the models pretty much show the pattern of the last 2 months to continue for the next 10 to even 15 days. At this point, I’d just as soon move on into spring rather than have a massive killing freeze or a “warm” snowstorm that will hang on the leafed out trees. TW

The pattern has been unbelievably consistent. What a winter out west though. TW

Does Larry work @ CPC?

Spot on. TW

Good read. Thank you for sharing. TW