tarheelwx

It’s coming. Expect a true nor’easter headed up the coast. TW

I'm good with ice. Actually a mix of snow (first), then sleet, then freezing rain, and then back to snow to top it off is a great storm. I'd still take any of those over cold rain. TW

My hunch is this turn more and more into a classic for NC as we see precip begin to increase back further west while we also see a classic turn to snow on the backside of the storm. Take this with a grain of salt and only for similarity purposes, but it reminds me a bit of March '93 in the way I'd expect precip to transition through the storm. NO, I'm not saying this is anything like March '93, on a similarity in the precip and the way I beleive the storm may begin to strengthen a bit early and wrap in more cold air which is there for it to tap into. TW

Actually, I'd say the GFS is the outlier while the Euro, UK, and Canadian are relatively aligned to be over 5 days out. TW

It's the Icon. While I'd like all of the models to show a big winter storm for NC, I'm not terribly concerned at this point as long as the consensus and especially the Euro keeps us in the cold air. TW

The 12z AI was way east yielding a pretty light event for most of NC west of the triangle. TW

At hr 144 the storm was basically off Myrtle Beach a bit and precip across pretty much all of NC. WaKe picked up a heavy dusting southeast to almost 2” northwest before a flip to ZR. At 144, roughly 0.40 of ZR had fallen SE to 0.20 in the north. Pretty heavy ZR was falling at 144 across most all of central NC. From the look, it could become a pretty classic nor’easter with most of NC flipping to snow before it ends, but that’s my words and not from the model. Also, Wake stays mostly 30 or below during the storm. TW

6z euro looked like a pretty classic winter storm for central NC. Cold and a good amount of precip. 00z AI looked quite a bit lighter from what I could tell. TW

Doesn't the AI have another system for next weekend as well? TW

I see the above snow and freezing rain maps, but are there sleet maps that would be in addition to what is shown above? TW

Can you show the same map @ 186? I'm thinking the map @ 210 might be missing a bit. TW

Yes. My place is a fair distance from any major roads, but more importantly it's in a fairly low place. So any time in the winter that it's clear and calm, we tend to cool down pretty quick, and several degrees colder than GSO. TW

31.6 here in Colfax, about 5 miles west of GSO. TW

Surprised that almost every model has the triad area getting a decent amount of freezing rain. I won’t even mention what the Canadian shows. TW

Looks like the AI just came back considerably south as well. Hard to tell but looks like temps late Tuesday into Wednesday morning made it down at or below freezing in prime cad areas of NC TW

While a bit warmer than previous runs, surface temps are below freezing for much of the precip in NC Cad areas. Not expecting a big snowstorm for sure, but a big winter storm is still on the table for virtually all of VA and parts of northern and western NC...... where ice could play a major role. TW

Now back to your regularly scheduled channel..... From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar. It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit. From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes. TW

Calling it the DGEx? Ouch! I’d have to disagree with that one TW

Does anyone have the 12z AI snow and ice totals? TW

But wait…….. there’s more. TW

IS any of that on the southern edge actually ice? Or, is there additional ice to the south side of what's shown on the 216 snowfall map above? TW

18z AI looked to have held steady, if not just a bit south. TW

Keep in mind that the oceans aren't just warmed from above. Hoping some of that record cold arctic air makes its way to the Southeastern US to coincide with some moisture! TW

To add, the Canadian at 240 hours looked primed to kick out something big over the next few frames. TW

With the GFS, the Euro, and the AI all showing the biggest winter storm by far for NC for next week, I’d say we’re officially tracking. TW