tarheelwx
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Everything posted by tarheelwx
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I see the above snow and freezing rain maps, but are there sleet maps that would be in addition to what is shown above? TW
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Can you show the same map @ 186? I'm thinking the map @ 210 might be missing a bit. TW
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Yes. My place is a fair distance from any major roads, but more importantly it's in a fairly low place. So any time in the winter that it's clear and calm, we tend to cool down pretty quick, and several degrees colder than GSO. TW
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31.6 here in Colfax, about 5 miles west of GSO. TW
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Surprised that almost every model has the triad area getting a decent amount of freezing rain. I won’t even mention what the Canadian shows. TW
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Looks like the AI just came back considerably south as well. Hard to tell but looks like temps late Tuesday into Wednesday morning made it down at or below freezing in prime cad areas of NC TW
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While a bit warmer than previous runs, surface temps are below freezing for much of the precip in NC Cad areas. Not expecting a big snowstorm for sure, but a big winter storm is still on the table for virtually all of VA and parts of northern and western NC...... where ice could play a major role. TW
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Now back to your regularly scheduled channel..... From what I could tell, the 18z AI stayed pretty similar. It looked like temps dropped below freezing for western NC (probably from Raleigh west) and maybe getting down in the upstate just a bit. From the freebie maps, I didn't see any big changes. TW
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Calling it the DGEx? Ouch! I’d have to disagree with that one TW
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Does anyone have the 12z AI snow and ice totals? TW
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But wait…….. there’s more. TW
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IS any of that on the southern edge actually ice? Or, is there additional ice to the south side of what's shown on the 216 snowfall map above? TW
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18z AI looked to have held steady, if not just a bit south. TW
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Keep in mind that the oceans aren't just warmed from above. Hoping some of that record cold arctic air makes its way to the Southeastern US to coincide with some moisture! TW
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To add, the Canadian at 240 hours looked primed to kick out something big over the next few frames. TW
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With the GFS, the Euro, and the AI all showing the biggest winter storm by far for NC for next week, I’d say we’re officially tracking. TW
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I guess nobody is looking at the 18z AI. 15” plus for much of northwestern NC. A couple of waves in the 200-300 hr range. TW
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The GFS, AI, and the Euro all have the storm - just the GFS is a little further north. So, definitely not on an island. Odds are low as we’ve been here many times, even this winter, and it hasn’t worked out. Worth a watch for now. TW
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Both the Euro and the AI have a major winter Storm for much of NC out around 288-300 hours. Lots of precip with temps in the mid/upper twenties for a fair amount of n and western NC. I don’t think we’re done yet. TW
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Most of us have been in a drought since October 1st. TW
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12z AI has a big winter storm for cad region of NC on out there a ways TW
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Trends over the last 24 hours have been for the cold to be out ahead of the precip rather than being aligned together. The result is far fewer, if any, models showing a major cad storm. Some still show some ice in the mountains and prime cad region, but no longer a major storm. The ingredients are still there, just not quite lining up like a couple of models showed a couple of days ago. Still need to watch this one as I'd expect models to begin to converge on a general outcome by early next week. TW
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Definitely some opportunity for late next week. But THI one is more of a thread the needle deal. TW
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The 6z AI just made a major move towards the Euro and GFS. From the 00z run to the 6z run for Saturday night in the triad, we went from precip with temps in the low 40's to precip with lows around freezing. I guess we'll see where things go. TW
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That's pretty much textbook for an ice storm down this way.
