tarheelwx

Full NA trough means more of the same right? Just need some good timing and a bit more of a cold push to get something going. Have to get through the brief warmup though. TW

EPS showed Great Lakes low for Monday coastal. TW

I think the cold that was expected to settle more in the northeast and impact us has set up over the upper Midwest and appears to stay that way a while. Still time to settle down our way but time is running short and avg temps are headed north from here. TW

Can't load all the snow totals. TW

I just don't get all the talk about the threats that seem to evaporate. To be honest, we haven't had a legit board wide threat yet. One model showing a board wide storm to me does not make a threat. It's interesting and something to watch that gives some hope, but its not a threat in my eyes. Give me three major models showing it 3 runs straight and we have a legit threat. Except for the ice a couple of weeks ago, there hasn't been a legit threat for NC east of the mountains since the early December storm. Any one run flashes of a decent storm shown by the models have all been quickly dropped and rightfully so......... for obvious reasons. I remember winter of '93. There was a lot of hype about how great the pattern seemed to be, but nothing ever worked out or materialized of any consequence Jan-early March. Then, well you know. I'm kind of thinking we'll get something similar this year. We'll have to wait to near the end and then it will happen and then we'll flip to spring. I'm okay with that. TW

Yep. If we get enough to wet the roads, it will be rather slick in the morning.

Just wait til the El Niño kicks in and our storms really get juiced/wet. TW

Actually it’s showing some snow on the last frame in the piedmont of NC. TW

Don’t you mean model..... as in singular? I hope it’s right.

FWIW. In the past, RAH was always very conservative early in the season, but once we had a good storm they’d be much less conservative the remainder of the season. Kind of like getting a kid to jump off the diving board the first time......it was hard but each time became a little easier unless there was a disappointing bust along the way. For whatever reason, the more bullish attitude regarding winter weather resets over the summer. TW

GSO has fallen behind on its yearly rainfall total for the first time in almost a year. Better hope that changes soon!.............NOT. TW

Model performance on the Dec 9th event was an anomaly. Having said that, I think there are some patterns where the models can be fairly accurate fairly far out, and other patterns they are not. Due to the consensus across most all of the models from a week out, we were in one of those patterns where most of the models could get it right. It concerns me just a bit that the cold and pattern flip to glory still appear to be nowhere in site. Having said that, if the flip took place around 1/15 and lasted about 4 weeks, I'd be good with that. TW

Not very cold, but certainly a nice hit for the same areas that got hit 2 weeks ago. TW

I'm afraid the RGEM could be right as we have steady ZR in Colfax as we speak. Temp right at 32 and trees are getting weighted. TW

I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations. Anybody confirm? TW

That tells me a lot of that isn’t falling as snow. TW

dry slot starting to show up on NAM?

Allan said: Major winter storm with heaviest wintry precip over western/central NC, s VA, n SC, ne GA, with epicenter for heaviest snows in NC mountains, foothills/western-central piedmont. Will post first call map later today. TW

06 NAM had precip barely getting into GSO by 1 pm Sunday. Will be interesting to see if it speeds things up a bit as most other models are a good 6 hours faster. TW

Absolute CLASSIC post.

850’s or surface temps?

Exactly!

Who is saying that? NWS for Colfax still says max 1/2".

Decided to go fishing with my son Friday morning, thinking the coldest mornings were behind us. We hit 18.3 Friday morning. I sure wasn't expecting that. TW