tarheelwx

I remember maybe 15 years or so ago, that we had a similar setup where everything was aligned except for the PNA. And...... we were getting a similar result as we have now. When we got to the end of winter, we heard "if it wasn't for the pacific crashing into the west coast and running straight across the country, we would have been set. I also remember a couple of time when several of the indexes were bad (NAO included), but we had a very strong PNA - the results were we didn't have any sustained cold, but we had chances with timing and eaked out normal snowfall for the season (thought it didn't stay around for more than a couple of days). History tells me that anyone that harps on the need to have a -NAO but is blind to the state of the PNA needs to be taken out behind the woodshed. Here's to hoping we score big at some point. TW

Flurries in Colfax. TW

Just looked at the 00z euro through 240. Canada surely cools off, but I see no real arctic invasion. Coldest morning temps I saw were around 25 for the triad area. That’s just pretty standard stuff. Hoping at some point we see some legit arctic air for more than just a day or two (like the Christmas cold we just had - flash in the pan). How do the ensembles look out in the long range (10-30 days)? TW

No real cold shown on the GFS through 16 days. Is the cold still coming? TW

Light snow in Colfax. 36 TW

Nothing in Colfax. 37. TW

I think Pella offers a similar model. TW

Doing a re-boot as it wasn't spitting out enough qpf! TW

Lack of precip on some of the 06z models was not reassuring. I'd take 3" right now and feel like I stole something. TW

00z NAM doesn't appear to be much of a change vs. 18z (through 42 hours). TW

00z NAM a couple of MB stronger @ 33 hrs. TW

At this range, I'm really more interested in trends rather than the absolutes that the models are showing. TW

If the GFSv16 is correct, the cold air being shown is pretty text book cross polar flow. TW

Still no legit cold to be found anywhere. TW

Where’s that Wake county dividing line everyone talks about? TW

Awesome. Nothing “yet” in Colfax/Greensboro. TW

38.1 and still rain in Colfax. TW

49.6 @ 10:30.

Just stepped out on my deck and heard a big tree fall out back a ways. Wind has shifted out of the north. Just watched the digital thermometer drop 1.9 at once. TW

52.3 at 10:24.

Still 52.3 in Colfax

52.7 here in Colfax for the last 4 hours or so. Hrrr showing about an inch by 1 am. I'm a doubter but seeing how rare snow is on Christmas, I'm compelled to stay up for it. I have to leave at 6:15 in the morning to take my daughter (nicu nurse) to Cone for work. Hopefully we see something. TW

Nailed it there Northhills. I remember several cold Novembers where the cold flipped to warm around early to mid December and JB would say “what happens in November, the winter will remember”. The problem is that it wouldn’t usually flip back until March or so and we’d have a cold miserable spring. So, I’m all on board with the current pattern holding another 4-6 weeks with a flip in time for the holidays. TW

5.9” here in Colfax at 7:15 am. TW

Well, if the euro is right, any talk of the summer drought being underway wound be a distant memory. TW