tarheelwx

Listening to my weather radio this morning as I was getting ready for church, the forecast for the northern mountains was calling for wind chills this week of -120!!! It did this multiple times for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. That’s a good one. TW

Light snizzle in Colfax. 28.2. 1" of fluff. TW

That's what I was thinking. Not a whole lot to get excited about if you're more than 20-30 miles west of 95. TW

It's all about the trend - 18z NAM increased total precip by 0.10" in GSO and Hickory and 0.20" in CLT. Hard to say about the 18z 3k NAM as it really didn't go out far enough @ 12z to compare. But through 54hrs on the 18z vs 60 hours on the 12z, they were very very similar. TW

I'm thinking for the triad back to the mountains that for this to be good, it will be primarily a mid afternoon to Wednesday night storm. If it ends up wrapping up by 6pm like some models have shown, then I think totals will be on the lighter side. On the other hand, we have the 3km NAM and hopefully the HRRR was about to show something similar with precip expanding out west. TW

How does the 3km NAM perform compared to the “regular” NAM? TW

I agree. I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition. It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower. I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad. TW

Each 12z model has a bit more precip in the western piedmont. Hopefully this will continue a few runs. TW

In the last 48 hours for the triad, it has given 0.2” qpf the first 4 of those runs and 0.10” the last four runs. Not saying it will be right, but that’s about as consistent as it gets. TW

AI has been saying this for days. Has wavered very little. Truth. TW.

Here’s to hoping the 00z runs begin pulling this back a bit. Based on the amped look at 48 hours, I’d be a little surprised if it didn’t come back west a bit. TW

Elizabeth City.

I agree that winds like the models are showing would be high impact. However, the last several times they showed high impact, it certainly ended up having less impact than what the models had indicated. Hopefully that's the case tomorrow. TW

When I was a kid in the 70’s/early 80’s, we had many storms that started as snow and we probably got a 1/4” or more of ZR. TW

GFS seems to be too light on precip back to the west considering strength and track. TW

Looks like 2002 had the primary going into TN before transferring. I’m not seeing that for this coming week. What am I missing? I see this as more of a Miller A TW

It’s coming. Expect a true nor’easter headed up the coast. TW

I'm good with ice. Actually a mix of snow (first), then sleet, then freezing rain, and then back to snow to top it off is a great storm. I'd still take any of those over cold rain. TW

My hunch is this turn more and more into a classic for NC as we see precip begin to increase back further west while we also see a classic turn to snow on the backside of the storm. Take this with a grain of salt and only for similarity purposes, but it reminds me a bit of March '93 in the way I'd expect precip to transition through the storm. NO, I'm not saying this is anything like March '93, on a similarity in the precip and the way I beleive the storm may begin to strengthen a bit early and wrap in more cold air which is there for it to tap into. TW

Actually, I'd say the GFS is the outlier while the Euro, UK, and Canadian are relatively aligned to be over 5 days out. TW

It's the Icon. While I'd like all of the models to show a big winter storm for NC, I'm not terribly concerned at this point as long as the consensus and especially the Euro keeps us in the cold air. TW

The 12z AI was way east yielding a pretty light event for most of NC west of the triangle. TW

At hr 144 the storm was basically off Myrtle Beach a bit and precip across pretty much all of NC. WaKe picked up a heavy dusting southeast to almost 2” northwest before a flip to ZR. At 144, roughly 0.40 of ZR had fallen SE to 0.20 in the north. Pretty heavy ZR was falling at 144 across most all of central NC. From the look, it could become a pretty classic nor’easter with most of NC flipping to snow before it ends, but that’s my words and not from the model. Also, Wake stays mostly 30 or below during the storm. TW

6z euro looked like a pretty classic winter storm for central NC. Cold and a good amount of precip. 00z AI looked quite a bit lighter from what I could tell. TW

Doesn't the AI have another system for next weekend as well? TW