In actuality the first three weeks of December HAD the cold AND chances, just the chances misfired. This last week and where things are going in January is a new regime.
When it comes to winter in this region the hardest thing to do is get a great Dec 15-Jan 15 stretch. I fail to understand why it remains mission impossible, odds would say it happens every several years.
Sounds like damn near medieval torture for those who like snow, and a place I am destined for happy happy joy joy. But I am guessing since Johnstown being a mountain town that averages 25" more than Pittsburgh it partly offsets the lack of big ones?
Question how much snow does your area average? I was looking into the Johnstown/Altoona region they get around 65-70" if what I have found is accurate.
It's like this - the analogs as Don S has eloquently described call for an awful <20" winter at this point. Now last year the analogs were very good(snowy) and we know how that worked out. Need the opposite to happen.
Predictably models abandoned the idea of an east coast snowstorm next week. Giant troughs out west are not conducive for snow in this region.
Depressingly Don S has updated and came up with a not so pretty 69% chance for <20" snow NYC +NAO +AO this month
Are the 80's back?
Didn't it snow last last week?
And that rare middle east snow in Iran in November is killing us, always seems to prelude some atmospheric process that is detrimental to winter in the Mid Atlantic.