Two camps on the coming pattern change:
Camp 1 - Pattern change to cold and possible snowy after the 16th, many in this camp expect this to last deep into February which would be unusual we usually don't do that very well but it can occasionally happen.
Camp 2 - Change to normal/below after the 16th likely lasts 10-14 days then oscillates back to first half of January pattern. This falls in line with the mild winter forecasts that have scored highest to this point. Also Weather World a few days ago did their 5 week outlook which is 2/3rd of the time normal to above, which argues this cold wave will be transient.
What does this mean? We better score good snow the last third of January because that may be all she wrote outside of more late season garbage like the last two winters.