Hurricane Agnes

12z hi-res EC -

7z NBM snow...

6z EPS -

Choice of maps...

6z GFS still has a 2-low solution but the 1st low goes shuttling off OTS far south and the other eventually emerges near the Chesapeake Bay. Looks to have a back end thump as it pulls away.

Yeah I had looked at the 850s and 925s but in general, "warmer" means more moisture the air can hold, so you get a juicier storm. And then you have warmish wet ground (wet from the previous storm's couple inches of rain), and it would hard to get some accumulation. I haven't tried looking for any soundings but some forecasts were mentioning sleet and if that happens, that might actually chill the ground enough to produce a frozen bed for snow to pile on top of. I know the year before last, we had piles of sleet.

We have this ocean temps issue going on too. Zoom in -

The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast).

Even then, it would be that wet heavy stuff. But I guess beggars can't be choosers.

With it hugging like that and no sign of a PV ooze for antecedent cold air, I can't see how any of these verify. I know that strong systems can self-cool and generate cold air but it seems like it would do that further north near NE.

It tried to do that but then faded it out and created that low over NoVA.

18z GFS ditches all-inland Miller-B type thing and coast hugs (edit - still wants a low to do a jump though).

Throwing the 12z Ukie in for precip.

Meant to check for a (jinx) thread. These were the two 12zs.

well I bottomed out at 31 this morning and am currently under all blue sky with a temp of 41 and dp 28. Comparing 12z GFS with 12z Euro (GFS seems to want to do a Miller B type thing).

Made it up to 44 as a high yesterday after bottoming out at 35. Currently 33 with dp back down into the 20s again and at 26. 6z GFS looks like it wants to do a Miller-B jump... but it's the 6z. (ETA 7z NBM snow totals - looks like a sharp I-95 cutoff).

And HAPPY NEW YEAR BACK! To the Philly forum - raise a glass.

6z GFS (also tending to keep it inland and/or along the coast).

Made it up to 44 yesterday after a low of 41 and the air really dried out as the dp tanked down into the 20s yesterday afternoon after a week of moist. Currently 38 with dp 30. 0z 3k Euro for the possible threat.

It kept misting and drizzling last night but finally finished up with 0.37" for the day (2.15" for the 2-day event). I am a tenth of an inch short of 10" of rain for the month of December (am @ 9.90"). Bottomed out at 44 this morning, and like others, was shocked to see that yellow orb in the sky this morning (was expecting some lingering stratus/fog but that was not to be). Currently 52 and partly sunny with fluffy cumulus and dp 42.

I used to use the Drives to go into work and I remember what it was like down there when the water receded after the heavy rain we got about a week after the 1996 blizzard. The huge plowed snow mounds along that little street that parallels the Drive, were still intact up on that little hill where the gas station is (near Calumet/Falls Bridge where the news stations stage live shots). The flood water line was visible about halfway up the mounds. The river had gotten so high with the melt and rain that there was a huge tree trunk that got wedged way up into the arch of one of the railroad bridges and was there almost a year before they finally removed it. They have done a lot of road work along there over the past 10 years for flood mitigation but it doesn't seem to have helped. Still getting on and off measurable and have another hundredth for 0.33" today (2.11" for the 2 days). Temp hanging in at 53 with dp now 53.

Looks to have peaked just before noon and is coming down. It did that with the last big rain (about as high). Still getting nickel and dime measurable and now up to 0.32" for the day (2.10" over 2 days). Temp is a misty 53 with dp 52.

Low here this morning has been 48 and I saw the Schuylkill is out of its banks along with the Wissahickon Creek. Currently 51 and dp 51 with a couple more hundreds inches of rain from something that backed in off the coast, bringing the 2-day total to 2.08" (0.30" for today).

The one thing I recall that lead up to the break of the >6" snow drought in 1978 was that the year before - 1977 - was outright bitter cold glacial. Because I rode 2 SEPTA buses to go back and forth to high school then and lived in a hilly area, there were times after flash freezes of earlier rain, when the bus didn't bother to come or diverted far out of my way and I needed to walk (slip slide) to wherever they detoured the bus stop to due to glacial sheets of ice everywhere. It was a nightmare although obviously being WAAAAYYYY younger helped. Sporadic periods of that level of cold continued on and off for the next 15 years into winter of 1994, when Philly experienced its last below 0 temp on January 19, 1994. It is now coming up on 30 years where Philly (at least KPHL) has not gone below 0 since. Ray was keeping up with the RERs for this rain event - After highs of 48 Tues & 49 yesterday (with a low of 43), I ended up with 1.78" overnight and 0.28" (with some right at midnight) today for a 2-day total of 2.06" (so far) and a December total of 9.81" of rain. It's currently a misty 49 with dp 49.