winter_rules

NY, East of Binghamton a little south of I-88. Near Oneonta/Sidney if you know of them.

Hopes fading for a good snowstorm for my locale, but I’m starting to get a little nervous about freezing rain problems. That would be the absolute worst. I would much rather lose all our snow than deal with the effects of an ice storm.

I don’t disagree, I’m just pointing out the significant spread in possible outcomes.

Yep, I’m hoping for a net gain and I’ll call it a win! It’s shocking to see a 7 day forecast go from warm and wet to colder and snowy as we get closer. It seems that most warm forecasts usually trend warmer as we get closer!

This is tough to watch for those of us who live along the I-88 corridor. My official forecast to co-workers is 1”-15”. Rain would pause snowmobiling until we receive more snow. 6”+ would make it beautiful, near perfect, conditions. We’re right on the brink with all options on the table.

I’m adding to 96Blizz’s comment: from a fellow southern tierian (work in Binghamton, live in NW Delaware County), thank you for all the informative posts!

This is where it pays to be one of those weird “snowfall rate” guys rather than being one of the much cooler “snowpack” guys. 3 weeks of slowly building an almost decent snowpack gets washed away in a day or 3, then the painfully slow process starts over again.

My brother’s birthday also falls in this window and we usually try to take a few days off to snowmobile somewhere around then. Horrible timing.

Doesn’t it seem odd that a strong storm that has been organized for so long, and has a connection to the Caribbean, has such a spotty precipitation field? This storm is so weird.

I don’t mind the ice box, but when it goes from super cold, to 6hrs of warmth to ruin a snowstorm, then back to cold, it feels like all the cold is for nothing.

-13° this morning. It has been below -10° for over 8hrs and counting. Snow starts in about 12hrs, mixing starts in about 24hrs. Not cool.

There seem to have been a lot of instances over the past few years where we hit very cold temps (say below zero) and then rain a day later. It has happened enough that I find myself seeing a very cold forecast, then skeptically looking beyond to see what storm is going to pump warm air up. It happened last Sunday and is happening again this Sunday/Monday. Fascinating and infuriating all at the same time….

I’m really baffled by how the models have been so consistent on showing such a rare track from +/-5 days out. Curious to see if it verifies.

It’s been interesting to see an area of much lower accumulations right over my house (western Delaware County) on many of the runs. Go 25 miles East or West and it looks much better. Remarkable consistency, really, for how far away the event still is. Unfortunate, but remarkable.

As someone who checks in as infrequently as possible (which is hard to do with potential snow in the future), it’s amusing/bewildering to see the huge swings in modelology. 24-30hrs ago the risk was a sunny day in NY with a snowstorm in Georgia/the Carolinas because there is no blocking. A day later the models think the same storm could result in rain in upstate NY. We are just inviting stress and frustration by following weather forecasts for potential events that are many days away.

Sounds like I’m really going to have to attack the 3/8” of glare ice from Sunday’s freezing rain on my driveway this week, rather than waiting for it to melt. I’ll never be able to push snow with that ice under it.

Cool! Where is that? Edit: I stopped being lazy and looked it up. I have seen the trails in Boonville but didn’t realize how extensive the trail network is! Do you mountain bike there in the summer? Would I dare take my capable 8yr old to check it out?

Just to clarify, I’m inviting Mike and his good luck into NY. It’s you and your bad luck that I’m trying to get out of NY!

Sounds like you should plan more trips….for the sake of all of us!

I care about snow retention, so I was few miles east of Pulaski. It’s amazing how much that slow, almost unnoticeable, elevation gain makes a difference in snowpack. I believe my drive down 81 to the 7th North St area (roughly the Thruway/81 interchange) was around 45 minutes in good weather. 20-30 minutes probably gets you to Brewerton and Central Square exits. Central Square is the northern extent of “most” commuters…..much less traffic heading up to Parish, Mexico, Pulaski and beyond. Only toothless people are allowed farther north.

I did that, and then moved away to be closer to family. I don’t regret that today. Nope, not at all.

We are also wondering….when you’ll be moving back to Michigan…

That’s an awesome photo knowing what is happening under those clouds! Reminds me of working in N. Syracuse and having to drive home to east of Pulaski back in the day.

Always interesting to hear perceptions of other places relative to “home.” Thanks for sharing.

We got a solid dusting overnight!