Volcanic Winter

Hi Doorman. I'd like that with a side of fries please. And gravy.

If the NAM stays in our corner especially as the hours tick by that should be a nice boost of credibility to the Euro solution. Could the GFS just not be correctly modeling the phase and thus is skewing the runs?

Thanks USCG, that actually answered some earlier questions of mine. Great post.

Think of it in the context of those with frail or elderly parents, or those with loved ones otherwise reliant on care. Not everyone is fully self reliant and a major storm can be a difficult challenge. Yes plowing happens quick these days but in a storm that's not riding 32 degrees the roads can definitely stay very messy until it warms. Not as much for those in the city, but in general combined with the massive population of the area and you get the NJ special snow panic frenzy.

QPF is really the best thing to look at, or?

The Euro has me feeling weak in the knees. Have to continue to be somewhat skeptical until the GFS adjusts west again. The storm as modeled for my area (Tom's River, work in Union) would be one of the all time biggest snowfalls. Insane. Even 75% of these latest totals would be simply mad (ticking down for wind or missed banding etc). But there's precedent for the Euro spitting out ludicrous results only to correct shortly before showtime, right? Hoping this isn't one of those times, but again just trying to stay tempered while there's still divergence between Euro and GFS.

I remember the thread for our second snow event of Jan. Lots of uncertainty, then a wild Forky appeared and confidently told us all to enjoy the snow... And snow it did.

Gonna ask a couple tough questions: 1) Lot of people here have been saying the GFS has been outperforming the Euro on our snow threats this January; why would this be different? Non-rhetorical or pointed, I'm genuinely asking if this is a different case. 2) I hear a lot of "the Euro normally overamps," so why would this be different considering it's the same situation we're staring down (the Euro looking strong and aggressive, the GFS weaker and OTS). Just playing devil's advocate and trying to broaden my knowledge. I want to latch onto the Euro and snuggle it in bed with me here shortly (if I can even sleep), but I'm getting that lump in my throat I had several years ago during The Storm That Shall Not Be Named where I sat looking at my radar and nearly punted my phone out the window. Not an equivalent circumstance, of course - as is probably best they've been very conservative in hyping this and we're much further out.

In a quick stroll through Twitter, man a lot of forecasters are disregarding the crushjob OP Euro run. I get it, certainly. But a lot acting like it's not a possible outcome (or even in the ballpark of possible). I think NWS Mt Holly telling NJ to expect a 6 inch storm. Seems like many are favoring the GFS here. Certainly seems like a decent risk for a big part of NJ to get more than 6 inch at this point, but I certainly get the hesitation after 2015 and with a set up like this.

Nothing would make me happier than getting sick snowfall here in coastal NJ while all you guys also rock out up north. Let's do this! (No whammies)

Okay, can someone just let me know if it's too soon yet to put my wetsuit and snorkel on and go lay out to on the grass?

All things considered, I still think we're in a really good spot for this. If the Euro changed course this morning it'd be one thing, but it's holding strong and adding the RGEM on board? I'll take it. I like that even the GFS has my area getting a few inches; that's a nice consolation prize. Long ways to go.

Good example of how sensitive this is. GFS hangs that initial piece of energy back just a bit, and it's enough to kick the storm out east. Probably good even if this is an anomalous run, because I'm letting myself get too amped. The hype must flow but hype is also the mind killer, in a bit of a paradox.

The trend is your friend, until it's your enemy. I think Napoleon said that.

Welp, that would be a mixing nightmare for me down in Ocean Co. Hoping to see us all stay snow. Boxing Day was so special for that (though I lived in North Brunswick at the time, it performed beautifully where I live now).

I took it that current guidance favors NE, but historical model bias (and current trends) suggests we're still very much in the game, and even compared to other major events. Not bad at this point IMO. The set up is clearly extremely delicate however, and it's really tough to start feeling excitement knowing how easily / quickly this could crumble.

Yeah I'm basically checking out until Tuesday night. If we're looking good at that point, I'm all in. Hit or bust, let's do this. *refreshes thread in two hours*

I like that it's shown up on more than one model (albeit at different times). Seems to suggest the solution is out there as a possibility in the ether, somewhere, but we need to get lucky. At least it doesn't seem like total fantasy at this point, but that of course could change. Well, far better than having nothing to watch, that's for sure.

If I'm not literally blockaded into my home by a five foot snow drift from this storm, I'll be disappointed. Like, force me to excavate a tunnel to get to my car, 1888 style. ... No? Alright, fine. Give me 3-5 that hangs around at least 48 hours and I'll be good, I promise. Really.

VEI 4 is too small to impact the climate and VEI 5 at the high end usually has only a minor impact (-0.1-.2C). Pinatubo was substantially larger. According to the Smithsonian GVP (https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=290250) , this was a VEI 4 level eruption and thus wouldn't likely have had much of an impact. The Laki eruption was a few years prior, while only classified as a VEI 4 or 5* as it only had a brief explosive phase, it erupted over 15km^3 of extremely sulphur rich magma and put so much gas into the atmosphere it was killing people in Europe. This was estimated to ultimately have a climate impact even though little was directly injected into the stratosphere, which is usually the driver for volcanic cooling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki https://www.volcanocafe.org/laki-deconstructed-ii-anatomy-of-an-eruption/ "[Laki] 120,000,000 long tons of sulfur dioxide was emitted, about three times the total annual European industrial output in 2006 (but delivered to higher altitudes, hence its persistence), and equivalent to six times the total 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption" This eruption was essentially, mechanically, a miniature flood basalt. *The VEI scale is somewhat flawed and cannot measure effusive eruptions well. Laki is a VEI 4-5 only because its explosive tephra production was limited, but it effused an absolutely massive amount of magma and an even more massive amount of sulphur. More on the scale of a VEI 6 like Pinatubo, though considerably more sulphur as mentioned above. Laki was highly anomalous and exceptional in many ways.

Kid in a candy store reading this link, thanks again: http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very Cold Periods in the Eastern US.pdf Reports from this time period are absolutely fascinating. Imagine a December without it reaching 40 degrees and having snow cover the entire month, just unbelievable stuff.

@bluewave That was a phenomenal read, thank you!

I’m very inclined to move away from the coast. The difficult thing is my work (in Hillside, Union Co). Commuting from N / NW NJ wouldn’t be bad, but I really want out of this state. Spent all my life here and there’s too much beauty in the NE region to be stuck in a state with a ludicrous population density. Traffic makes me mad. If I can get my wife onboard I’d love to move to New Hampshire or Maine. Half my wife’s family is French Canadian and there may be some opportunity for a more drastic move, but of course even that is a vastly bigger deal / commitment. Of course if I pursued my passion for geology / volcanology there’d be an opportunity to spend time living in Iceland, which for us is one of the most beautiful places on earth. Been there four times now (in winter) and planning to go back soon. My wife surprisingly on board with that, but once again an endless escalation of commitments and an even more drastic change. Not always easy.

Of course it’s likely not accurate at this point. Hopefully if other models start to show a storm signal for that time period the takeaway is an event to track and hopefully something productive. Not ready to write winter off despite it at times making me feel I’d be better off doing so.