Volcanic Winter

I honestly don’t mind so much living at the coast of NJ as far as snow is concerned. I’m far enough inland to avoid extreme coastal mixing and rain, and I’m always potentially in the bullseye. We miss more types of storms than you guys up north and of course our average isn’t as high, but we’re always in the game for those big MECS+ we get every year to every few years. I’ve been in Rochester visiting family through their lake effect snow, I’ve been in upstate Ny in the winter, and I’ve lived much further north in NJ until relatively recently. I would always miss our coastal bombs (especially the sharp cutoff kind, we did phenomenally with the big one this winter), even if I’d very much appreciate the greater consistency of 4-8” snowfalls in the winter further north. Definitely plans to move out of state and much further north in the next 5-10 years, wife is onboard. For now, I’ll enjoy playing that coastal lottery because when it hits … .

A lovely cool spring so far. I genuinely prefer when spring is not just an extension of our hot and humid summers, we’re to have quite enough of that in the coming months. For us spring should be light to moderate jacket weather with daytime highs that don’t make you feel like you’re in a sauna with a massive UV lamp overhead. I have no idea how humans survive in the deep inland South. I would expire within one season…

Fascinating Bluewave. Thank you.

I’ll take it. Beautiful crisp air. Makes me feel refreshed and awake. Don’t worry guys, I lose by default. It’ll be hot and humid here before you know it. These types of events are transient and rare for us anymore. What does seem to be increasing is our prevalence for tornadoes; how about that Mullica Hills EF3 last September? Never thought I’d see what appeared to be a Deep South multivortex dirty wedge in NJ

Well, in the years to come you’re going to keep getting a heck of a lot more of it as our winters erode bit by bit. I find it rather difficult to cheer on unseasonable warmth as it more or less continues to herald our new climate realities. I’ve said it before and at the risk of being a broken record, try to find appreciation for the cold (any cold, even in the spring) while it’s still possible here. We seem to be heading at breakneck speeds toward mild winters and increasingly hot and humid shoulder seasons and summers. Personally, that doesn’t thrill me but I guess I “get it” in terms of people who prefer warmer climates. But be careful what you wish for, IMO.

Warm records in winter flowing like wine; I hate it. All in all, a meh winter offset by a wintry January. I’d of taken a slightly warmer Jan for a colder Dec and Feb. Just hoping we’ve not seen the last of true winters here. Seems very difficult to conclude that’s the case, but at the very least the chances of a proper winter seem to be diminishing as we hit warm record after warm record. If this is it for winter this year, see you all next year! Was a blast despite the general disappointment, very happy I finally signed up here. Very intelligent and interesting bunch of posters. Hoping for one more cold shot at the end of the month, but not holding my breath!

My Tempest station has me at 46 at the moment, light rain. Pressure though is cratering; 996mb.

Hoping this one produces for you guys! I’ll be thrilled to see a flake at the C/S NJ coast. Interesting system though at least. Get it guys.

1/29 saved it for me down here. Good storm for the NJ coast and LI. Happy at least many of you near the city overperformed a bit on that one. Was for sure the most fun event of the winter and it was a blast tracking it with you all.

BRB moving to Hyde Park.

Can confirm, I’m right near Newark and it feels like early June.

It’s depressing, is what it is. Temperature consistency is better than constant wild swings between cold and warm in the winter. Swinging between something like -5 and +10 is just ridiculous in the winter. Yes, there are always warmups, it’s more the intensity and consistency that makes it so obnoxious. This is not the southeast, historically winters here are cold, even all of New Jersey. Our records are all below zero. It feels like we’re shifting toward a southeast climate with the ridge intensifying and moving north so often and so powerfully. This is probably slightly exaggerative but it feels like 14 and 15 were a “last hurrah” of real, long duration proper winters for this area. I would be overjoyed to see it again but I’m not betting on it anytime soon. Very happy we had this January but even that had warmups right after the snowfall that offset the winter vibe too much. I wonder if at some point in the next hundred to two hundred years we’ll see a temporary cold shift like a weak Younger Dryas from Greenland freshwater melt further weakening the AMOC. Definitely won’t be anything near as sharp as the YD because the Laurentide had far more meltwater than Greenland, but I’d be surprised if there isn’t a relatively brief anomalous cold period upcoming before we rocket headlong into +3 to +4C. Too bad it’s almost certainly to be after our lifetimes, if at all.

The way I interpret this Snowman is that it’s a pattern conducive to snow. Nothing more, nothing less. Of course that doesn’t mean a snowstorm here is likely or will happen by any means; just that it could. It’s good enough for me.

A trackable high power storm would be a dream, but I’d gladly take a 1-2” widespread coating event. Just want to see a little more cold white stuff before I go back to sweating like a maniac for six months in work attire.

My hero. Looking spicy!

Thanks Bluewave. Let me get one more decent cold shot mid month and I’ll be happy to call this winter a wrap, snow or no snow. Just want to be reminded I don’t live in South Carolina.

By all means, cheer on warmth once we get to April. For now, anomalous warmth in March only further reinforces our new climate realities and I absolutely cannot find excitement for it. Whether I prefer the cold or not, it’s just sad to me. I mean this sincerely even if you’re a warm weather person; enjoy the seasonality while we can still get it here. The way things have been since 2015 is alarming, at least to me.

I don’t think historically the NYC area is a bad area for snow, it almost certainly isn’t as good now as it was for the majority of the last millennium as we are at a much higher baseline temperature. This should affect NYC more than Boston at this point, with more borderline rain events and more frequently falling on the wrong side of the temperature gradient. I can’t comment on how historical storm tracks might’ve looked, but I’d be willing to bet going back 4-500 years this area had way less rain events and more frequent snow events, in storms and systems that would likely produce rain here now. I’d be so curious about historical records from before the 1880s, but actual data is sparse. I’m wondering if it was colder and dryer or colder and snowier. Having better data from the time of the LIA would’ve been fascinating, as it had already ended according to most by the 1850’s / 1860’s. Totally different climatological situation of course. Edit: I’m not really talking about those massive historic 20” + events, as that could be tied to the warming SSTs, but just the frequency of average / moderate snowfall events.

Leaving work early today in Hillside trees and some surfaces looked encased in glass. Roads have been fine with some accretion on side walks and untreated driveways.

I was in North Brunswick at the time. My then girlfriend / future wife and I were snowed in by 4+ foot snow drifts in our ground floor apartment. Was absolutely insane. That storm also was phenomenal where we live now down in Ocean. A true coastal snow bomb.

Major temperature drop going to work between TR and near Newark. 42 down to 33. Moderately heavy rain.

I’ll never forget that run. Garbage or not seeing a model pump out a map like that was insane. Especially since forecasters were having difficulty latching onto the most likely outcome, that run had me spitting out my coffee. It’s okay to have some fun with this, I knew it was extremely unlikely. Most of us are here because we love weather and appreciate snow, so seeing those pretty colors was exciting even if only briefly. There was so much uncertainty with that storm it was more than just a hypothetical “what if”.

If only the Nam did the best with 1/29 and we all got 70 inches.

Eventually the increasing base warmth will win out. Any good March from here on out should be appreciated for what it is. I wasn’t tracking winter weather as closely a few years back but March 2018 was following a monster SSW right?

It’s awful. Eventually I’m getting out of here. North Jersey is great but I’d probably be happiest up in New Hampshire or Maine. Some day. Feels less and less likely I’ll see another winter like 14 and 15 around here, where we had both long duration cold and actual persisting snowpack. A rarity for my area but possible (though never to the extent as up north, of course). This January was great for me and we had one amazing storm and a couple decent ones, but even with a BN month the melt was tenacious. That’s why it doesn’t touch what we experienced here in the middle of last decade, but that was apparently a pretty good outlier for how things are these days.