Volcanic Winter

Yup, the article mentions there was an extremely potent cooling episode in 1831 traced to this eruption. This is how scientists identify windows going back through history where there was likely an unknown large eruption; if they find evidence of a volcanic perturbed climate with no known eruption that lines up, they know they have to hunt for one. 1808/9 was a big one, right before Tambora. Huge sulfate spike in the ice cores. Also high latitude eruptions may even more easily disrupt the climate due to the lower tropopause; it’s easier for the eruption column to breach the stratosphere. But this is pretty clearly the last pulse of the LIA between 1808/9 -> Tambora, and now this. Large driver of the final 50 years of the LIA, assuming an agreed upon end point of 1850.

And then there's me, who wants to retire in the mountains near the Canadian border .

@ma blizzard@LibertyBell This is very interesting, just hearing about this discovery for the first time... A previously unknown volcano produced another major cooling episode only 15 years after Tambora, in 1831. The volcano was recently identified - Zavaritski in the Kuril Islands. Very young looking caldera, so I'm sure geologists were drawn to investigate this system as soon as they were able. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14236299/Scientists-finally-reveal-cause-1831s-global-cooling-event-caused-crop-failures-devastating-famines.html https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/the-mystery-of-the-1831-volcanic-eruption-solved-394611 This was likely a very large eruption, somewhere between Pinatubo and Tambora (probably in the middle).

Yup, sorry not going to clog this thread up with any further discussion on this. Just noting that factually TR is definitely still part of the suburban metro of NYC (which we think of as CNJ -> N), but culturally it’s much more debatable which I acknowledge. It’s probably colored by the fact that I worked for 15 years in the immediate metro and grew up in Middlesex and inland Monmouth. But yeah, like anything else people have differing opinions which is fine. Back to Schrodinger’s snowstorm. It’s there, and it isn’t!

I really don’t think even points south of 195 are getting much, at least based off what I’m looking at right now. 2-3 inches here in TR is probably the best case scenario, which is nice - sure. Was just looking over the latest runs and it’s like ACY lat -> west. And I’m hoping the north edge isn’t like that early Jan 2022 system which was mostly virga. I got absolutely nothing while ACY got over a foot, that was brutal.

This is such a frustratingly narrow stripe of accumulation, reminds of that first Jan 2022 that plastered ACY.

Definitely, I just vividly recall and appreciate that specific window of winters. I liked the extended cold in some of the later winters of that block. Pretty sure it was 2014, but I have vivid memories of significant pack retention down here for weeks and weeks. I do really enjoy the cold periods nearly as much as the snow (I know most don’t), if we could just get a little snow on the ground early this Jan with this temp profile … man not bad, you know? Such a shame.

Thank you! Appreciate it!

ATG storm. Will never forget it. I lived in North Brunswick for that one, and my then girlfriend (now wife ) and I were completely snowed in on our ground floor apartment with drifts damn near to the top of our front door. It was absolutely wild. And where I live now was a second jackpot area in NJ; just an all around NYC / NJ legendary affair. The year prior we had another major event too, I was still in Long Branch at school for that one and I remember something close to 20 inches. Back to back legendary December storms, just doesn’t get better than that. Feels almost impossible nowadays. That stretch from 2009-2016 (ending at the HECS) was just magical to live through in this area. I wish I savored it more, at the time had many distractions away from the weather…

https://watchers.news/2025/01/03/powerful-vent-opens-at-dofan-volcano-as-seismic-crisis-hits-afar-region-ethiopia/ Wild!

Agreed, just catching up myself… African volcanism is fascinating because it’s a thick continental craton cut by a juvenile rift in the east, with a baby hotspot growing under the Virunga plateau (could be a future flood basalt here, hasn’t happened on earth for 16my since the Colombia River Basalts). It’s a volatile mix, and the volcanoes situated under thicker crust can grow large reserves of rhyolite and be highly explosive. Lots of major calderas from enormous eruptions in the past, like the famous Ngorongoro which was the site of a truly massive eruption. Sadly many of these volcanic systems are little known and poorly studied due to difficult access and lack of funding. And there’s been relative quiet during historic times (obviously excluding Nyiragongo which has been very dangerous / deadly for Goma).

Can’t check at the moment, what is it showing?

I guess it depends on where in TR, I’ve lived here since 2011 now. People definitely commute to the immediate metro or even NYC for work. The area south and west of 37 is a bit different than the northern areas. At least that’s been my perception. It is definitely a border region, so it would make sense that it’s a blend of influences culturally, but that linked map made immediate sense to me.

I agree with this, doesn't work solely with county lines but Toms River is really not south NJ and is definitely part of the NYC metro. Really the southern extent of CNJ. Once you go south of me though, things are very different - so I actually think this map is pretty much spot on.

What was different about January 2022 that allowed a KU, highly amplified offshore system to close the month (1/29)? While true that it only scraped NYC - it was inches away from a major storm across the full metro but still gave me and LI well over a foot (or two). I remember it had some bizarre dual low structure and the further east low became the primary, pulling the best snows east away from the metro before going on to clobber parts of NE. I know that was a strong -EPO pattern, but what's different now that it seems so impossible to get a highly amplified coastal like that? IIRC that was when the pattern was breaking down, days before we transitioned to sustained warmth in Feb as is our usual anymore. Asking because I don't know, no insinuations or predictions. Thanks guys.

This is turning into quite a sad story, with more to come if this thing actually erupts. Dangers of a powerful long dormant volcano waking up. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ethiopia/awash/seismic-crisis-2024/updates.html More and more convinced this ends in some type of eruptive event as the daily seismic activity is incredible, outputting mag 4-5 quakes daily. I want to clarify as this linked piece suggests a source claiming the activity may be tectonic in nature (which means essentially not directly from the ascent of eruptable magma), but there was evidence earlier including INSAR data which clearly showed a potential large dike intrusion. There is absolutely no guarantee this does erupt and this source could be correct, regardless it almost doesn't even matter as real harm / damage is being done now just from the seismic activity. Something I'll be watching daily from here on out - volcanoes are fascinating but also incredibly destructive, and can be so even when not actively erupting.

This is reminding me of that first, early 1/22 storm that plastered ACY for 14 inches while I got nothing but virga in Toms River. I should do better than that here, but the general point I think is the concern about virga on the north end - it seems similar enough to me. Confluence would really have to abate for this thing to come much more north, or it would have to amplify much more basically, yes? I would probably just think a few more minor wiggles at this stage, but I'm much more of a novice with this stuff than you guys. Still fingers crossed a few flakes fly across the metro, at the very least.

Same, I’m happy with whatever happens. At least it’ll appreciatively feel like winter and not extended fall as usual. Hoping 1/6 jogs a bit more northward, but if not - oh well. We’ll have our chances.

Happy New Years guys! 2024 was not a great year for me, hoping for much more positive vibes in 2025… and that extends to all of you as well, wish you all the best for the new year.

I’d still rather be in this position than staring down a shut the blinds torch for the next three weeks. We’ve been there many times the past several years in Dec turning Jan; this is a clear improvement. I know not everyone enjoys the cold without snow with it, but at the very least for those of us who enjoy it - we’re getting at least a bit below normal here with at least some snow opportunities. I mean, I’ll take that for now - no problem.

I love YouTube so much, I grew up with it… it’s such a great format at times and really lets creators deep dive things. There’s so much good and intelligent content out there, it just gets buried by all the clickbait nonsense that makes you want to vomit… Seriously? THE WORST BLIZZARD I’VE EVER SEEN!! Day After Tomorrow Par Deux, Arctic Boogaloo! 3ft from Atlanta to Bangor! Can I start a petition to send @donsutherland1to this guy’s house? And it’s no better in the geology arena, there’s so many videos like, “Is Yellowstone REALLY about to go off and delete the United States of America? The Secrets Geologists Don’t Want You 2 Know!” FFS

On the volcanic front an unusual big volcanic system in Africa has been waking up for a couple months now, Fentale. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/fantale/news/261022/Fantale-volcano-Ethiopia-earthquakes-intensify-increased-risk-of-volcanic-eruption.html It’s been throwing rather large mag 4-5 quakes essentially daily at a depth that suggests a magmatic signature, and this system is capable of both big rhyolite explosions and basaltic fissure eruptions. If the main edifice (which has a large caldera) is the source of a possible eruption, it could be a fairly substantial explosive event. Regardless, this is an unusual volcano and African continental volcanism leans big and powerful, so it’s definitely a system to keep an eye on. https://watchers.news/2024/12/30/strong-earthquakes-near-fentale-volcano-spark-eruption-concerns-ethiopia/

Hell of a lot better than staring at Baja troughs and an eastern ridge bouncing so hard it's like it's trying to fling Montreal over the top of Greenland and into Europe... This is cool, we're in a decent spot here and have something fun to watch for a change. Way better than I think any of us expected at this time.

Topped out at 62.3 here at the Toms River / Manchester border. Dec averaging 35.2 right now.

That October display here really was unbelievable, not something we’ll see topped for a long time if ever. The sky here was vivid pink and purple… It seemed like the sun shut off soon after they declared solar maximum, or at least activity died down quite a bit while we were in Iceland. On top, the sky was cloudy with precipitation for most of our trip - so it wasn’t a great Aurora trip. Thankfully we had tons of snow!