Volcanic Winter

Not trying to be funny or condescending in any way, but I really did a double take when I realized it’s only Dec 13th today. We seem way too on edge for being not even two weeks into December. I said something similar before, but think back to last year. My first winter with you guys, signed up in Jan but read the whole Dec thread here. It was dark (and rightly so because the month sucked). We’re in such a better spot with actual seasonal cold right now compared to ‘Merry Torchmas’ 2021. We really have nothing to worry about. Last year couldn’t have been any more hostile to kick winter off and Jan turned out pretty good. We’re starting from a way higher baseline this year, by default.

Yes, actually. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/magma-bubble-rising-under-new-england-volcanoes-science Check back in a few hundred thousand to a few million years and NA could have a new supervolcano.

So is winter cancelled? Let me know so I can start crocheting a new toilet seat cover to give my wife for Xmas.

I can read snow maps. The bigger the number the more excited the weenie. Right?

24F down by me. Nice, crisp morning.

Not sure how many fans of Nordic melodic death metal we have here, but this is my dedicated “kick off the winter” and “it’s gonna snow” album. Given our prognosis for a descent into colder departures going forward I figured today is an appropriate day to put it on during my long commute to and from work. It’s heavy, but effectively sets the mood: Insomnium - Winter’s Gate

Hey, this is certainly more fun than tracking how torched the next week is gonna be and taking bets on who sees 60+. We could be in a very different spot. This is fun. Let’s get some snow, boys. This week or next, it’s gonna happen.

What was the most recent KU type storm? Assuming 1/29 was too irregular to qualify?

Not for nothing, if this winter turns out snowy and cold it’s a good omen for the next two winters as well. Volcanic forcing doesn’t erode in a year. But it’s also not all encompassing and can be offset by other unfavorable factors, of course. It’s more another piece of the puzzle. With the recent paper showing the underestimation of sulfur released in that eruption combined with latest assessment of its size, there’s a very good chance it has a hand in what’s going on. It was as big or even bigger than Pinatubo, just with a different aerosol profile. Because I’m a giga geology nerd, one last factoid about HTHH: they recently discovered evidence for underwater pyroclastic flows reaching 80km away from the caldera! That’s absolutely insane.

Thanks for info / discussion. My assessment of “climo” would be say that 1/29/22 happened in mid Dec with the same track and I got rain to 2 inches of slush instead of 16 inches of powder, as even with a favorable track for me the mid levels stay too warm. Like in this case wrt Thurs storm even at the end of January a low tracking that close would give rain across the coastal plain of NJ / NY and NE, perhaps with a slightly closer cutoff of snow. Just sharing how I interpret that, but I guess it’s more a summation of factors including track.

Isn't it literally just the track in this case? If the storm were further south NYC would get blasted.

Quite torchy down by me (Ocean - live, Union - work) today, mid 40’s and moderate rain all day. Jealous of your snow guys, but happy for you. Hoping to see a flake or two on the ground when I go to work tomorrow but not expecting it. Hopefully this kicks off an active and snowy winter!

The here and now is already better than last year, though. It's not like we're 55-65, torched every day with cold air stuck in the 11-15 day with a monster -PNA. We're actively in a better position with the models consistently showing continued improvement. That's encouraging, IMHO. Of course things can change. Certainly hoping they don't, but I'll allow myself a modicum of excitement.

Gratz on your first flakes! Always great to see in Dec.

Wait so Xmas this year might actually feel like Yule instead of like Memorial Day? Amazing.

Moved here from North Brunswick, we honestly do pretty well. Little bit less frequent to see snow down here as we miss anything with a north south gradient, but we can score with the right track (like last Jan). Boxing Day was excellent in this area too, but I was up north for that one. And I work west of EWR so I catch a lot of northern events that way.

Interior Toms River near the Manchester border, it’s a good spot relative to the coast. 16 inches 1/29/22 and normally avoid when there’s mixing at the immediate coast but not inland. Doesn’t make a different when there’s serious onshore flow of torched air though.

Fair, I’m tempering my expectations back down to nothing. In the absence of a better air mass I feel like the storm would need an absolutely textbook track to get snow to me right now. Maybe up by EWR at work I’ll see something. Of course a long way to go, etc. Happy to have something to watch and glad someone is probably getting a significant snowstorm. If I get nothing, I’m feeling good about my chances going forward at least.

0z gonna be 3 feet in Maine. Guys remember the GFS with 1/29/22? Up until the last second I remember it showing a total miss for basically everyone while the Euro held swerve. In the NE thread they were talking about the lack of consistency right now with it and to basically discount it until it begins to show less extreme run to run volatility, which I agree with personally based on what we're seeing.

With the volatility already baked into this month and the massive changes made to the system the past 48 hours I wouldn’t expect to start seeing a more coherent and well supported outcome until the back end of the weekend at least.

That’s my dream, I’m not a selfish weenie. I want everyone in on the fun. Give me a classic megalopolis bomb any day.

Exactly. This is just gravy at this point, I don’t normally ‘expect’ snow until Jan. If I can work a decent storm down by me or even up where I work, I’ll take that happily as a nice pre-season bonus.

I’m gonna let the weenie flag fly for the 16th and go all in on hoping for some decent snow down by the coast. Gotta see continued trend toward a solution that works for all of us, and I def see some potential there for a fun event. This weekend I’ll be happy if you guys catch some good flakes.