Volcanic Winter

Snow isn’t really guaranteed anywhere but the mountains. Even the coastal plain of New England is struggling, though of course they fair better than we do overall. It really comes down to the storm tracks as you point out, and everything that influences them.

60 is going to feel actually tropical next week after we all adjust to this level of cold. I do appreciate Lady Gaia saying, “I’ll give you a cold Xmas, but you can’t have New Years!”

Bottomed out at 7 degrees. Pretty impressive cold.

10.6 here now. (TR / Manchester border)

Right now we’re on “Empire Strikes Back,” just have to wait for the next installment, “Return of the Weenie.”

Looks great! Isn’t there a chance it would simply be virga due to falling through the dry arctic air? I don’t know, just asking. BTW 26 here in western Toms River. Dropped real fast and already feels quite cold with the wind.

Yeah on the upper level maps I looked at for the next two weeks it looks like no cold air at all on our side of the globe. Even Canada looks warm. What’s happening exactly to the vortex? Displaced to Asia? This is something I don’t understand as well. Thanks Forky.

The block linked up to the WAR and pushed the trough axis / storm track too far west into the Lakes. From my perspective it looks less like a wholesale pattern failure and more like a series of small misfortunes that cost us the storms. I’m most interested in seeing if we can shake the upcoming unfavorable PAC and get the block back in place for a round two at some point in mid to late January. I just can’t let myself believe this is going to be a skunk winter off bad luck in what otherwise was a good Dec (from pattern / temp perspective).

So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year? Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not.

Hopefully we see a resurgence later in the winter, that we capitalize on this time. Such a strong episode of blocking already does suggest a likely recurrence, yes?

Interesting! Thanks as always for your fascinating insights. And oh I know what’s coming is brutal compared to our usual December cold (when we can get it), but I am truly very adapted to that kind of real cold weather. We just got back from a hiking trip to the north of Iceland last month and we spent days in ~25 degrees with 30-40mph polar winds, which Iceland is famous for. And I’ve been in -10/20 continental cold before; that’s *really* cold stuff. But it’s all about how you dress, and a lot of people aren’t accustomed to dressing properly for real cold conditions. You need layers on top of layers and good down or lofted synthetic insulation (preferably over a good mid weight fleece), along with something that blocks at least the wind when wind chill is a serious factor. Of course good cold weather outdoor gear is expensive and not everyone is able to go that route when we see that kind of cold so infrequently, but at the very least an inexpensive medium weight (at least) down jacket or parka is a good investment (Eddie Bauer surprisingly makes decent stuff at a relatively cheap price point). But if someone was in the market for a high quality insulation piece, Patagonia is great for everything (highly recommend their Better Sweater fleece, super warm), Arc’teryx for synthetic or shells, Rab or Montbell for down, etc. And Jottnar, an upstart British outdoor company, makes excellent stuff as well. I have a moisture resistant down jacket from them with excellent wind resistance. Edit: From our Iceland trip

What do you call it when you feel alive and refreshed in the cold and depressed and unhappy in unseasonable warmth? Should probably see a doctor about that . And my wife is the exact diametric opposite of me, so naturally we’re perfect for each other. Though she does enjoy the winter hiking we do, I have to keep her bundled up like a freshly hatched chicken.

My good GTX shell down parka is coming out for three days. Hoping it’s not the only time I need it this winter.

Nice chilly rain coming down by EWR. Really sets the Christmas mood . Some of the western M/A folks are reporting a nice thump of snow. Some have a couple inches already. Incredibly jelly.

Forky I’ll never forget your Jan 6th (I think?) call last year with the highly uncertain system. Lots of back in forth in the thread then you randomly popped in and quipped “enjoy the snow,” and snow it did. Think I got a very respectable 5-6 inches out of that. Bookended by 1/29 getting 16. Was a nice Jan for me.

It’s interesting because Dec was well set up minus the lack of snow; all that separated us from decent snowfall was trough placement being too far west. Likely without the insane NA SST’s we’d be celebrating an epic Dec and ready to write off the warm start to Jan, no? Just seems like Dec was more of a near miss considering all factors, but I certainly understand if the medium range prognostication is unfavorable. Really trying my best to retain some positivity. We’re due for some favorable luck to break our way for a change.

That’s very disheartening, 19/20 was the worst winter I can remember of recent years for me. All I remember of that one was near constant 50 degrees and rain. Yuck. Are we really seeing indications of a repeat of that right now, or are we just down on our luck? Dec at least was rather cold, are we really going to permanently reverse on that even considering blocking tends to be recurrent once it happens the first time? Any long range hints at the moment aren’t good, or? Then again, rather burnt out on day 11-15 cold signals… Lose / lose.

Was just going to ask how things are looking after the torchy start to Jan, if there’s any favorable hints appearing. Been exceedingly busy with work right before Xmas and haven’t had much time to look at things. Really hoping January’s opening pattern is a temporary blip.

I’m not happy unless my underwear freezes solid after 5 minutes outdoors.

Saying “it was warmer in the past” isn’t an argument nor is it a counter to the fact that CO2 emissions are explosively accelerating warming of this planet right now in the present. The climate ebbs and flows naturally over long periods of time in lockstep with, yes, the PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere. Except this change occurs over thousands to millions of years, with more abrupt changes following catastrophic global events like bolide impacts or flood basalt eruptions, the latter which still takes thousands of years to cause dramatic change. An example of the latter is the Permian mass extinction where the planet was very nearly sterilized as oceans exceeded 40C following eruption of the Siberian Traps, one of the largest continental flood basalt eruptions known. We are mimicking that sort of CO2 release, except on a much shorter timescale. The planet naturally switches between several states of higher and lower CO2 levels and temperature due to various feedback mechanisms. We are interfering with and essentially hijacking it at an unprecedented short term timescale It actually speaks to the fact that you are naive to the physics involved, or you wouldn’t think bringing up paleoclimate conditions is a relevant argument. Did you know the earth in the Hadean was so warm it was molten? Fun to think about, but it has nothing to do with AGW.

Be nice to snag something before Tanuary. .. I mean January*

Here you go man:

Preparing for this to be the only snow I see for a while:

(Deleted my original reply bc I wanted my quote to show his name in the tweet, lol)

Yeah, the 80’s seem to be an interesting period within the context of the modern era from a temperature perspective. Is there anything you (or Don, or anyone of course) could add about the reasoning for the semi-frequent arctic intrusions and “true cold” during this decade? Anything meteorologically speaking that can be pointed to as a cause or mechanism, perhaps outside the obvious? Very interested. Thanks. On a side note, Bluewave - what is your profession man? I don’t mean to ask personal questions but I’m very curious, if you’re willing to divulge. You’re not a meteorologist? You have a serious wealth of knowledge and climatological analytical skill; just an extremely well informed non-expert / enthusiast? Another type of scientist perhaps?