Volcanic Winter

Honestly average NYC snow is not bad, plenty for most. Probably not hardcore snow lovers, but it’s not like the area is a snow vacuum. The crux of it (right now at least) is getting to average in the first place, and occasionally getting the winters that balance out the bad ones. It is definitely possible as much as I’d like it not to be true that the last twenty or so years were anomalously snowy and not something that’s likely to continue. I tend to think the warmth is going to be more and more of an issue than anything else. I know some disagree, at least in the short term.

Yeah, when I wrote my modestly upbeat comments yesterday I was mainly holding onto the notion that such a potent arctic airmass in Dec along with such powerful blocking wouldn’t be the start of a shutout winter. But that last storm really demolished the playing field and the reset so far hasn’t been close to what we need. That mid month signal looks / looked interesting, but it really needs to dig further south to get us in the game at least on track alone. Quite a few days out still, of course. Maybe it gets interesting, maybe not. I’ll tell you one thing, I’ll always take the cold in place first. I know we don’t “need” an arctic air mass and I know it can even be counterproductive, but I’ll always take having some cold air in place like last Jan.

Yeah the cutoff to that AC storm was brutal, I only caught a few inches in that while not far to my south cleaned up. Had a great Jan overall though and scored nicely wrt NJ in 1/29. As long as the absolute torch is abating, that’s a good enough step one for me. 30 days is a long period of weather, there’s bound to be a surprise or two this Jan (and of course, not all surprises are good).

Yeah, I'm just along for the ride. The other forums are a bit more upbeat (M/A and NE), not saying we'll all see snow that won't be highly location / track dependent but I'm at least staying optimistic. This winter in my unscientific, anecdotal opinion does not have the tenor of a 2019-2020 shutout. With that said, if I personally get little or nothing here to March, so be it. 1/29 was fun.

I averaged 36.5 for the month near Manchester TR border on my Tempest. Interesting. 7.3 min and 64.6 max.

Meanwhile Iceland has had one of their coldest months in a very long time, with temps as cold as -20C in the warmer southwestern region near Reykjavik and Thingvellir (one of the main tourism areas inland from the capital). I was there in November and it was nothing like this, now (I saw about -10C up in the northern part of the country, which is more typical). Capital area was -1 to about 6C while I was there. What a difference.

For the latter issue, I drive a WRX. With a 60 mile commute up the parkway, having a car like this is a dream (not to mention fun, especially in snow). Unfortunately since getting it the only real storm I had to drive in was Feb 1 2021. Years prior I would borrow my father's F150 for larger storms, and in having my current job since 2009, I have some crazy memories of driving the parkway in horrific conditions.

63F now at my house. Up from 27F this morning. I think that qualifies as a torch .

Everybody stuck watching reruns of “Attack Of the Niña” while hoping we finally get to watch “Revenge of the Weenie.” Definitely the better movie IMO. I especially like the battle between Anafrontal Snowwalker and Nosnowbi Juan Niñobi.

I woke up at 27F on the Tempest down by me. Yeah, the difference is pretty staggering. I’m just about the opposite of a UHI being near the pine barrens with my home situated at the edge of a forest, but yeah.

I totally admit it’s extremely upsetting to me. It’s very hard to accept what we’re staring down for a couple weeks .

Haha, I would expect if anything Hunga Tonga will be having some impact on the SPV and teleconnections, but it’s beyond me to say precisely what. Need someone skilled with atmospheric physics but who also has some understanding of volcanic climate impacts (perhaps why there isn’t a ton of research in this area, there is some no doubt, but for how impactful volcanoes can be on the climate and how historically impactful they have been I would think there’d be more). A nice and simple “net negative” influence on temperature anomalies is unlikely with the way Hunga Tonga erupted (as it was relatively sulfur poor), however there was indeed recent research suggesting its climate altering gas release was underestimated. So it’s really tough to say. And then you get into the anomalous release of water vapor, which physics of course suggests is a greenhouse gas… And you have a confusing mess trying to sort out what impact HTHH will be expected to have this year and the following several years, and it’s why I’ve seen multiple opposite takes from several different smart people favoring different aspects of the eruption. It’s not cut and dry, and will really only likely be “known” in retrospect. FWIW I lean toward a “chaos” element with the teleconnections, which may have already been manifesting this December. I have no way to prove that and could be entirely wrong, but I believe large eruptions can cause some alterations to global patterns via teleconnections and the SPV. We saw something like this with Pinatubo, and going back into the historical period there was all sorts of bizarre and intense weather following Tambora and Krakatau. Highly recommend people read about those events and their climatological aftermaths, it’s very fascinating. Lord Byron and Mary Shelley actually give quite interesting accounts of the insane, stormy, and cold weather in Europe following Tambora (which was something like 10-20x larger than Hunga Tonga depending on which volume estimate you prefer).

What caused the slight backing off of temps, changes to the Pac jet?

That and waking up to a fantasy coastal that gives me a significant dump before hitting NE; not bad all things considered! Let’s see if the GFS can hold that storm in any fashion through today, but realistically I’m sure it’ll swing to Bermuda before Chicago before disappearing. Still, a better position than yesterday!

Of course, I don’t necessarily require bitter cold to not feel that depression, but I absolutely do require a seasonal winter vibe. I did genuinely enjoy the past several days though; there’s something about real cold air that I find uplifting and refreshing. I can’t really explain it, though admittedly I probably have some wires crossed somewhere . I’m the sort that would be happy as a clam living and working in Antarctica.

I’m glad someone at least will appreciate this weather. Seriously, no snark intended at all. I genuinely already feel whatever the reverse of seasonal-affective disorder coming on. Instead of being depressed in the cold, snowy winter months, I get depressed when it’s warm and sunny in the winter instead . Get out and enjoy it at least so somebody is .

For my birthday in Feb, I’m trying to plan a predominantly hiking focused trip to New England / NNE. My wife and I are experienced winter hikers though we haven’t done much in the northeast US and am hoping to get out there and see some beautiful sights. I’m interested in locations around Mass, NH, or Vermont (Maine might be just a bit too far for our purposes right now) and I’m interesting in some recommendations for places to go focused on hiking. I gather this time of year the majority of mountain locales are geared toward skiing and snowboarding, which neither of us do anymore (used to Snowboard, unfortunately have had severe back injuries that took that from me). So I’m really unsure of what places would be ideal for hiking at this time of year. I’m totally open to any recommendations of any kind, my only ask is nice and broad; general “outdoors” . We do prefer day hikes to camping and would also love any cool towns to visit to stay, eat, and drink. We’re very well prepared for the cold and have suitable gear / clothing. Greatly appreciate any suggestions!

This is already a statistically unusual start to winter as Bluewave points out below. I understand what the stats say, but this wasn’t a shutout pattern the way some of the other Decembers were where nobody in the northeast really saw snow (except the mountains I’m sure). The storm tracks missed the coastal plain of here and New England, but there were storms and there was snowfall in addition to BN anomalies for much of the month. That’s quite different to a shutout 50 degree month where snow was metaphysically impossible to begin with. Many of the years with no snow in Dec that went on to precede terrible snow-less winters had a much warmer pattern. Respectfully I’m going to disagree on calling the death knell on this winter. I have of course no way of knowing how things will end up, but let’s wait at least until we’re on the other end of this warm up and see what the pattern flip brings, along with the long range guidance at that time. If things are looking grim, sure.

Eh, at least IMBY we had quite a few upper 30’sh 25l days this month, that’s solidly below normal early - mid Dec if not outright cold. Given how warm Dec has been for us lately and how the month looks to be finishing up (give or take 37 at Central Park as per Bluewave back a page), overall that’s really not bad. We just missed the snow, but the month wasn’t a torch or anything. Impressively the torch to start the month was soundly erased.

Don’t start me up, I don’t stop once I get derailed into my biggest earthly passion . Yeah, the odds really aren’t that bad. You’ll typically see 2-4 VEI7 or very near 7 level events per millennium, and that number increases a bit more as you go a bit lower into the still incredibly large mid to upper end 6 range. And small to medium 6’s occur nearly every century, with the 20th having three VEI6’s with several more borderline 6’s. You really only need a borderline 6 like Pinatubo to impact the climate, assuming the volcano erupts a gaseous magma as Pinatubo did. And if you have a particularly stinky mid level 5 like El Chichon in the 80’s, you can even see a small negative anomaly from that. Borderline 5’s like St Helens are pretty much universally too small, though they can still be additive if coinciding with a larger event. It’s a little known fact that Pinatubo caused such a significant volcanic winter in part because Cerro Hudson erupted quite large the same year. Large events really aren’t all that rare, at least insofar as we can tell from the last thousand years which has much better resolution than prior. We also saw quite a number of large explosive events in the Aluetians and other poleward volcanoes in the early Holocene from the loss of ice and resulting containment pressure drop. I do believe we’ll see something similar as warming continues, though to a lesser extent than coming out of the LGM, at least initially. Hunga Tonga was spectacular though, erupted at or above borderline VEI6 level within an hour or two. Most large explosive events take days. That is monumental. Don’t forget, any (ahem) “volcanic winter” nowadays will just roll back several decades of warming for a couple years. Even if another Tambora went off tomorrow, the effects wouldn’t be as severe with respect to climate anomalies. It was already much colder then, so Tambora’s gargantuan forcing coupled with a much colder climate base state (not to mention the assist of another large event several years prior).

The fact that it was only “17th coldest” says quite a lot with respect to Bluewave’s post and my thoughts. This will be the coldest Xmas that many, myself included, have experienced in their lifetime.

Wow, that is so incredible… Seeing temperature data for Dec alone listed this way, makes it overtly clear how we lost Dec as a winter month. Look at the consistency of cold to very cold Decembers going way back! 40 was even an anomaly, now it’s what we should expect at minimum (it feels like, anyway). Again, how is this not monumentally depressing to people? Rhetorical, I know the reasons (including people don’t enjoy the cold), still this is so “in your face” major. One month, yes, but such an absolutely remarkable change from what was geologically a nanosecond ago. I need a Xanax after reading this.

And truly, I want to see a DJF with a -4/5 departure to mirror the occasions we torch to the opposite. Just to prove we can do it. C’mon Mother Nature, I dare ya!

Is there some relation between very warm summers and very cold winters? I’d assume if so in any measurable capacity it would’ve been more observable prior to the current era of accelerated warming, where just about every summer now is exceptionally warm. But I seem to recall a few years in the 1930’s too during the dust bowl era with some record warm summers and extremely cold winters. I think the 1910’s too, if I’m not mistaken? It’s been a minute since I’ve looked at total years, unsure of the 1910’s would fit this concept too. Side note, both decades featured large volcanic involvement.

I feel like I woke up to a second Xmas morning with this massive Bluewave data dump. Thanks man, I always spend a long time going over the temperature data you share and ponder different things / go on diversions looking up further details on specific winters and periods. The total scope and variation of our weather here in this area is fascinating. It is remarkably clear though, how the record low and high minimum max temperatures are clearly from a different era. I just don’t believe the NYC / NJ area will ever see another period with high temps in the low single digits and lows well negative. What would it even take to get there? Sure this current cold surge wasn’t in Jan during peak climo, but it was very clearly a powerful front with significant arctic air behind it. How much stronger could it get to force temps down even further? What else would factor in to produce even colder temps? Seems like we just about maxed out upon what is possible, though that is hardly scientific or anything other than a meaningless point of speculation. What else is remarkably clear; it takes an awful lot to produce BN departures these days, though without this current surge being bookended by pure torches in the beginning and end of the month would’ve probably gone a long way to producing a more significant departure. We’re not even going to finish Dec below normal relative to an earlier 30 year average, I gather. Now Jan will face a similar issue even if the remainder of the month is cold to very cold. Regardless, here’s to hoping we didn’t just experience all of the winter of 2023…in 2022.