Volcanic Winter
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Everything posted by Volcanic Winter
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Can’t wait to be outside taking pictures of 0.4 inches (sorry, eternal optimist) of snow like a complete degenerate.
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The consistency of the RGEM holding the weak wave is interesting. It did subtly shift the best snow to far south Jersey, but at least it’s still showing something area wide. It’s really not comforting how little the other models want to do with this (CMC went south), I would have to imagine something would begin to cave by tonight? Either the RGEM just sniffed this one out or it’ll dissipate into the ether.
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For the stat gurus; in winters with strong December blocking that later returned, when did that typically occur? I'm assuming it varies? Also realize there are cases where it didn't return. Wondering if there's any chance we'll get a pity block in March. Regardless, it's very polite of the TPV to lift out of the NE in time for our next rainstorm.
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NYC - *Goes all of January without a dropping below 32f.* Also NYC - *Drops below zero but warms up in time for the next rain storm* Winter of 2023, now in Ludlum’s newest book, “Shitty Winters of the East Coast.”
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I’ll make poutine in celebration if they end up right. Nice broad area hit, we need this.
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I was the dude at the back of the roulette tables checking the GFS.
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RGEM has a nice quick hit for everybody, though at the end of its range. I know the NAM isn't great towards the end of it range but I'm not as familiar with the RGEM.
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Amazing! Proper weenie roast.
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So what does it mean when I’m in ACY with my wife and spending more time checking the models than gambling? After a couple drinks checking the models feels more like emotional gambling than getting fleeced on roulette or something.
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Would like to see a positive trend for a change. Don’t think it’s unreasonable to say we’re due when literally everything has broken the opposite direction since Dec 1st. I know many SNE people are really hurting too, we need a region wide moderate snowfall. Even if that’s it for the rest of the way, let’s avoid an all out catastrophe with at least something that could be construed as fun to track and experience. Might be asking too much given the way things are going, but as mentioned I’m leaving the door cracked enough for a pleasant surprise. If not, well no one could argue it isn’t fitting…
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12z GFS didn’t look terrible to me honestly. Looks like there’s room for favorable trends, taking just the idea of each wave. How do the ensembles look right now? That big blown up coastal with rain far inland fits this season to a T. Offshore track, rains hundreds of miles inland in every direction from the coast. If that doesn’t turn into a cutter perhaps there’s room to make that workable? Gathering cold would be the, ahem, issue.
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Was just reading there are two other “pine barrens” in LI and MA, that’s very cool. Somehow I’ve lived down here for ten years and never really paid much mind or given much thought to it, but always felt it got a little ‘extra’ chilly here at night. Regarding the Jersey Devil, I grew up in central Monmouth and have fun memories playing in the woods with friends as a kid hunting the Jersey Devil. We’d tell each other crazy stories and go out at night and especially around Halloween. I remember one time someone deliberately threw a black garbage bag up in a tree deep in the woods to scare the crap out of us . Ahh, good times. Now let’s get some damn snow, eh? Finally my local forecast app doesn’t read like November beyond the next few days…
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This is really fascinating to me, I'm actually down to 24F right now and temp is still falling. I knew I'm "near" the Pine barrens but didn't realize I'm technically on the border of it, as per the map here I'm right on the northeast line: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_Pine_Barrens Also didn't realize, according to this lows can be up to 10f lower than surrounding areas. That seems absolutely nuts to me but in line with what I've been noticing on certain nights comparing my Tempest to other locations around the state.
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UHI in NYC is insane sometimes. Way worse than I ever realized. I’m already at 27F right now 47 miles due south:
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My expectations couldn't be any more cratered, so I suppose there's only room for a pleasant surprise.
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I genuinely can’t even fathom how crazy some Little Ice Age winters would seem to us today, all through the northeast and even down through DC. As best I can tell, winters could be absolutely Day After Tomorrow level down to North Carolina. The things people would do with a Time Machine… I’d be going back to a few key volcanic eruptions then promptly checking out the big LIA winters in NA and Europe…
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What I imagine Bluewave is like away from his computer:
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Thank you, I had that sort of backwards. Alarming…
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Couldn’t the slowing AMOC eventually override this warming signal by the overall reduced volume of warm water transported poleward? Granted, this is likely not an “in our lifetimes” kind of thing, merely something I’m curious about.
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By then all future northeast snow weenies will have built a city on one of the NNE mountains and it’ll be known as ‘Mt Weenie.’
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Does that mean our toilettes will flush the other way like Australia now?
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I guess the Jan 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga is why we haven’t had a cold winter since 2016. Makes sense . Nothing else in that timeframe has come even close to the kind of water vapor dump into the climate system that would have any impact at all.
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We needed another sulfurous Pinatoobs, not a water vapor laden Hunga Tonga. Now we’re even doing large eruptions wrong. Meh.
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I had 16 inches down here in my part of NJ from 1/29, was a nice storm and 22f at time of peak snowfall which isn’t typical down by me. We’re more typically upper 20’s to 32 at time of snowfall for storms that stay frozen down here. But was my first exposure to the NE crew reading your threads on this storm, was extremely interesting / informative and fun. Was happy for those that got crushed.
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We'd have to drop down to absolute zero to avoid finishing the month AN. What a month, lol.
