Volcanic Winter

32 down here and snowing pretty good right now, finally sticking to the grass. Radar suggests this should continue for a little while at least. I’ll take it. Snowed all day, never saw any rain. But nothing would stick with temperatures ranging from 34-37. Finally started getting colder and it’s finally sticking.

Snowing heavy, fat, low ratio stuff down here by me right now. Air temp cooled to 33/34 from 37 prior to onset. Nothing really sticking yet but it probably will if it keeps up. Pretty at least. Gratz everyone up north! Enjoy!

We are now not London. Lisbon? Catania?

Also 42 and light rain. We are now London.

To be fair I always chime in when a storm is going to impact the north part of the forum but not me (at the extreme southern edge of the suburban metro), and that holds true now as well. Get it! Hope this thing explodes into a burial for you guys.

Thank you for all the analysis and information you've provided lately, John. It's very much been appreciated.

Even down where I am during 13-15 I had snow sticking around for weeks. My front porch was encased in ice and snow, it was something else let me tell you. Now that, for me, is what my preferred winter looks like. Since then we’ve had cold shots surrounded by tons of warmth and the occasional big storm. Ready and waiting to circle back… Honestly I never had an issue with the shape of central / coastal Jersey winters until the post 2016 era where things are definitely changed, as per @bluewave‘s info about the southeast ridge and all the other elements that we keep discussing. Quasi permanent Niña, the MJO beginning to speed through favorable phases, etc.

Through today on my Tempest I’m averaging 41.5 for March, the exact same as January finished at. Min temp was 24.1 on the first, max 59 on the 4th. Feb was 40.1 and December 36.5. One month winter .

Not expecting a flake with these thermals (45 miles due south of NYC). Unfortunately not working this weekend to catch whatever falls just west of the city, either. But I am seriously rooting for a positive bust for you guys. We need this.

What was the set up last January? I don’t remember all the details. 1/29/22 got me for 16 inches at 22f at the time of snowfall. I’m about 15 miles inland from the south / central NJ coast at home at about 70 ft asl. Last January actually had appreciable cold and I snowed with a few different events culminating in the big show the 29th. Definitely my best storm since Jan 2018. The big ACY storm missed to my south or it would’ve been an outstanding Jan, but the theme was available cold and the ability to combine that with waves. It felt very counter to the theme lately and I hold onto it for that reason. The Delmarva did pretty well too I thought, yes? What worked last Jan? Asking genuinely.

Also, isn’t the pattern awfully progressive right now? Isn’t that not typically the case with blocking like this? I suppose this is because waves aren’t digging in the east and being driven north into the block where they’d slow and shunt east?

3/28/22 my temps were 33/23 and I had a trace of snow that day. On the 13th I was 35/22. It was a warmer month overall last year, but even given that I had much colder individual days than anything I'm seeing projected right now. I mentioned this before as I'm somewhat confused by it; with the set up we have what is limiting us from getting some colder air into the picture? It's slightly BN but you'd think there'd be some much colder days mixed in. I think Tip or one of the meteorologists on NE forums mentioned that the true arctic air pipeline was blocked off from us, which is typical and frustrating. Lack of cold air is the least tolerable way to fail, IMO.

You’re sitting pretty on this one. So are my wife’s parents in Milltown.

That gets snow to me, somewhere between 1.2-1.8 inches. I’ll take it. Doubt it sticks really anywhere here, but I’ll take it.

Yeah I’m pretty content at the moment. My only main concern are the thermals with respect to my home location, but that will hopefully be less of an issue closer to the immediate metro and for points north and east of there.

Was 1/29/22 all over the place In terms of OP runs at similar range? I remember tracking it with you guys very well but the day to day changes are all a blur now. I remember it being a nail biter though, IIRC mainly due to phasing interactions out west. But I def remember large shifts and the GFS I think almost near completely losing the storm into short range. Not predictive at all or has any bearing on right now, was just thinking about it.

I don’t, the main event I remember from 2009 was later in December. Was in Long Branch at the time for a year and got absolutely crushed by that Dec storm. Had just started dating my wife and she was over that night and all I remember was digging out for hours. Later in 2010 I was up in North Brunswick through Boxing Day and the rest of that winter. 09-15 are the best winters of my adult life, and what I have the fondest memories of. 2016 was good for the HECS but don’t remember anything else of note and it was warm, which I hate.

I had a Norlun down here in 2018. Was pretty cool. https://weatherworksinc.com/news/norlun-trough

I’m not really one for emotionally reasoned aphorisms, what’s possible depends on the meteorology and that changes with the patterns. Not every March is the same, not every pattern is the same, not every storm is the same. What I’m not suggesting is to over-invest in any one event, but rather try not to close mindedly assume outcomes are ironclad which I’ve seen a lot of this winter across all eastern forums. Dud winters happen, and this is certainly a dud winter. But that doesn’t invalidate the potential for something positive to happen the next two weeks if the meteorology supports it. Just how I view things.

Tip's thoughts on Euro from his thread:

Was having issues with the comment editor above, posted that from Typhoon Tip on NE forum in his own topic on the storm. Some very good info and analysis in there.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml The positive phase https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_map.shtml And then here for a bit more info https://openatmosphericsciencejournal.com/VOLUME/10/PAGE/6/FULLTEXT/

Brooklyn watching the models today: Lol, nah stay the course man. Thanks for staying on top of this with so much commitment, whatever happens.

And the Euro is back to a coastal, .