Volcanic Winter

Apologies for getting to this rather late in the discussion, was going to answer in the morning but I'm having some trouble sleeping anyway. Lengthy volcano nerd post incoming, feel free to skip this post to get back to ENSO discussion . To be honest, regarding Hunga Tonga you all are better equipped to debate its impacts than I am at this point, as it is very much not the classic 'Pinatubo style' atmospheric SO2 bomb sort of eruption that imparts a well studied downward forcing of surface temps via overloading of the stratospheric aerosol veil with sulphate. The principal driver of HTHH's impact as we know is water vapor, and that is very much an anomaly among large explosive events. While most volcanoes have a water component to the magma (it acts as a volatile), in a typical large explosive event the water vapor component is well overshadowed by SO2 and fine ash particulates. You guys know way more ocean-atmospheric physics than I do with regard to considering the water vapor impact (which will last longer than the typical SO2->sulphate production in the stratosphere; the chart @40/70 Benchmark linked shows the timeline nicely and is from a source I'm familiar with). Couple things. Take a look at this video: https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2044907/v1/153086f25b0f0b7d7068563b.mov That monster column is apparently only a total volume of 1.7 cubic kilometers, while underwater PDC (pyroclastic density currents) / ignimbrite deposits totaled over 10 cubic kilometers. If this is accurate, this was a true Pinatubo sized blast and the first VEI 6 since that eruption. However, the vast majority of the gas and particulate matter went into the ocean and not the atmosphere. That monster column? Mostly boiled seawater... 1.7 cubic kilometers would be a small VEI 5 and not typically the sort that would have a measurable climate impact, and that checks out with the measured atmospheric SO2 pulse from the eruption (which was well below even El Chichon in the 1980's). Pinatubo was over 10 cubic kilometers all blasted straight up. Source for the above: https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3000198/v1/95ad0f06-876f-487c-ba2b-fed11310ce6a.pdf?c=1686242395 -- I believe you guys were discussing if HTHH's plume would've crossed hemispheres and frankly it's a good question and the answer varies from eruption to eruption. Ice cores between Greenland and Antarctica often show different levels for the same eruption depending on where the eruption took place and what the atmospheric conditions were like at the time of the eruption, which matter as far as dispersal of the aerosols. Generally big eruptions do cross hemispheres, but it really varies significantly and usually the hemisphere the eruption occurred in receives more of the particulate load. If we're talking only 1.7 cubic kilometers (which is only slightly larger than Mt St Helens 1980) of atmospheric ejecta, it really is irrelevant because it's not large enough to matter. It all goes back to the water vapor, as that is a separate measurement and would be the reason the eruption plume in the above video is so monstrous. One thing is for certain, I would not want to have been a fish near HTHH when it detonated. 10 cubic kilometers of PDC deposits erupted in just a couple hours is a massive and extremely intense event. It just beat the hell out of the seafloor more than the atmosphere. Seriously, just because most of it went into the ocean, this was still a once in a thousand year caldera-forming eruption from HTHH and is easily one of the most intense eruptions witnessed by man, though Krakatau and Novarupta were 3x larger, and Tambora was as much as 15x larger. But yeah, go back to the water vapor. I read something like 1/10th of the total that normally resides up there was ejected in the eruption, and that it could remain for up to 5-10 years? That's definitely what I would focus on, because that's the 'story' of the HTHH eruption.

Is this what you rock in the middle of winter?

56 this AM for me down in the pines. Pretty amazing.

At the border of Manchester and Toms River I’ve dodged so much of these central / south events. Any of the previous watches and elevated severe days recently we’ve basically had nothing but drizzles, haven’t seen much in the way of thunder this summer actually. Temp sitting at 73.9 for the month of August to this point, vs 77.2 for the month of July and 67.1 for June. Interesting summer so far! Really starting to feel that fall / winter hype, my time to shine! Nov through Feb are my favorite months of the year. Wife and I working out if we’re doing our hiking trip to Iceland this Nov again. The eruption of Fagradalsfjall is over now but would be fun to get out to the fresh lava flow field. Good things to look forward to.

They expanded the 2% tornado risk area to cover the whole arc of the coast from NC to MA.

Yeah, I had little more than a cool looking shelf cloud pass overheard with a couple distant rumbles and some rain. Maybe one moderate wind gust. Wasn’t really even a strong thunderstorm at that point, let alone severe. I’m about 15 miles inland from the shore.

This is also why I personally enjoyed 2014 so much; I didn’t get too many big storms that year but we had very frequent minor snowfalls that stuck around for weeks. I distinctly remember my front porch being iced over and frequently replenished with powder for weeks on end that winter; for me that’s the holy grail even beyond gigantic coastals.

Exactly the post I was about to make. Sure, we may get more juiced up storms before temperature becomes completely prohibitive, but in the interim winters have warmed enough that we’re starting to lose borderline events that would’ve been paste-jobs in earlier decades. This issue has often been covered up by the monstrous MECS & HECS we’ve been getting in recent years. @bluewavehas posted about this frequently with good data to back up how we’ve begun a ‘feast or famine’ regime where we’ve lost many of our small to moderate events that’s covered up with monstrous storms. Of course the foot+ storms are amazing to witness and are very fun, but it’s those small to moderate events along with cold enough air temperatures to keep it around a few days that really provides a winter feel. And this is something we’ve really been lacking lately.

Can’t recall an SPC moderate risk this far east before, I’m assuming though this definitely isn’t a first, right? Still that 10% tornado risk area and CAPE estimations in the DC area are pretty wild. Here at work in Hillside (due west of NYC) it’s been consistently cloudy with on and off light rain, humid but not especially warm. Unless the sun starts peaking out I’d imagine it keeps a lid on severe potential up here.

My bar is “better than last winter.” I think that’s reasonable, right? Tell me that’s reasonable, dammit.

I know last summer was hot here, but it seems the past few years we’ve avoided the truly record breaking, insane heat yes? Thinking back to the June 2021 Pac NW heat dome as well. I know we had multiple 100 days last summer, but I don’t recall a truly sustained ‘giga heatwave’ around here recently, just our usual ‘NYC Metro Swampass Special.’ Is that more because dews cap the top end heat, or have we not had the sustained high heights pattern that would build a traditional heat dome here yet? I’m sure our time is coming if it’s the latter.

Wow, got down to 54.3 for a low!

Cool! Where you goin man?

Having a good camera and learning how to shoot with it is such a relaxing and rewarding hobby. Enjoy Liberty. Go to Iceland and get some aurora shots! I’ll give you all the tips.

Yeah. This is why I’ve refrained from talking about ‘impacts’ of the AMOC switching to its other stable configuration. We know the Younger Dryas AMOC slowdown returned the planet to a colder state, but that it may have been regional (which is not surprising). We’re in a different climate state now with different starting parameters, and I’m not educated enough on the subject to speculate on the effect of a complete AMOC slowdown in the modern era. I know this is somewhat contentious, though. With that said, I would be very surprised if it did not cause a multi-century shift in climate norms across several regions, along with unexpected changes in others.

This is sort of unrelated directly, but tangentially related to what you’re talking about. I follow a well published university astrophysicist that writes for and helps run a geology blog; a very knowledgeable, multi-disciplinary dude with a lot of interesting perspectives. He believes based on comparing the duration of our current interstadial(length of the Holocene) with past interstadial in the recent Quaternary, along with the direction we’re heading along the Milankovitch cycles that help govern glaciation, that the LIA was potentially the beginning of the slide toward the next proper stadial (glacial, Pleistocene like climate). And that human activity effectively aborted it with carbon heat energy, which is the same mechanism that has pulled the earth out of ice ages throughout the epochs. In a way, our activity had an even bigger impact than we realize. Take this with a huge grain of salt, it’s a speculative opinion from a smart dude and nothing more. But it’s interesting food for thought. And regarding the ‘ice age’ fears during the 70’s, well climate science simply improved dramatically over time. And that era was when sulfur and other aerosols were still exerting considerable influence in suppressing the impact of rising CO2 (not unlike sustained volcanic influence), so it’s not wholly surprising to see a couple decade downturn with that in mind. Climate science only improves as we move forward and learn more about the various feedback mechanisms built into our planet. It’s also clearly established how CO2 has been correlated to every natural climate excursion, both warm and cold, going back throughout the Quaternary. There are many natural processes that help raise and lower CO2 over the millennia, but what we’re doing is causing CO2 to skyrocket at an unprecedented rate. The people that deny human caused climate change by talking about natural earth cycles are ‘half right,’ in a sense, while missing extremely important context with respect to what that actually means and how that relates to the Anthropocene.

The AMOC likely collapsed before the start of the Holocene during the Younger Dryas which was a significant climate excursion. I don’t necessarily think the impact would be as severe today, but I do believe it will be a substantial re-alignment of climate norms. As I’ve read it from other sources, the AMOC has a fast and a slow state that are considered stable. We’re currently in the fast state, but with notable slowing occurring. If that slowing continues, it will eventually quickly crash into its other slower stable configuration with less effective heat transport. There are beliefs the ultimate impact may be minimal, but I don’t necessarily subscribe to that line of thinking. It’s a major ocean - atmospheric system and we pretty much know what happened the last time it slowed, though as mentioned I don’t think impacts would be 1:1. If this new paper’s conclusions are valid and ultimately supported elsewhere, I believe this is something that needs to be taken very seriously. The IPCC was always conservative with the AMOC and last I read stated it was not in danger of collapsing at current trajectories for a couple centuries or so, IIRC. Though that would’ve been based on evidence that is now several years outdated in light of the new stuff coming out.

Hillside Serious CG lightning going on with this. Crazy storm.

What about its effect and impact on the monsoons? I’ve read it has the potential to greatly disrupt that. The Younger Dryas featured a sharp temperature drop likely from the AMOC shutting down from the melting Laurentide, though that was a much bigger injection of freshwater than what’s happening today from Greenland. The mechanisms are different today (or at least there’s a multitude of causes), but I do believe it would trigger significant climate disruption.

Tip, was just coming to post this study! Crazy stuff. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w ”We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range). ”

Check this new paper about a potential forthcoming AMOC collapse: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w “We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).” This is pretty wild. I know the AMOC has a fast and a slow state, and I believe the last time the AMOC was believed to be in the slow state was the Younger Dryas just prior to the start of the Holocene, caused likely by the meltwater pulse of the Laurentide ice sheet.

We usually go in early Icelandic winter, around the beginning of November. We’ve been four times now and I’ve seen the lights on each trip. It’s addictive and spectacular. The best display from our last trip in 2022 was when we made it back to Reykjavik from the north. They’re still incredibly visible even with the (albeit small) city lighting. Just some quick iPhone captures, I have a lot on my DSLR I still need to process

It’s not just based on KP, it pushes that info along with other things. I do look at those things, I just hadn’t for this presumed event. Was just mentioning the app never sent a push notification which implies it wasn’t a big deal, but as mentioned I hadn’t looked further into it this time.

I made it to 59.5 for a low this weekend, which feels unbelievable in light of how warm nights have been since July began.

I hadn’t looked into it but I have a location based aurora app on my phone for when we go to Iceland that sends push notifications with the KP and cloudcover when viewing is possible in your area, and I didn’t receive anything. I’ve gotten them here in Jersey before, too. It went off for one of those earlier storms this year where they were possibly visible, but it was a cloudy night and most of our area is simply too bright (and they’re likely to be low on the northern horizon at our latitude unless it’s like Kp 8-9).