Volcanic Winter

Bit of a break finally, but quite gusty at the moment. Strongest winds coming through now. Overall: I’m located on the western border of Toms River tucked right in by Manchester.

2.63 now. Really a bullseye here.

Just hit 2.0 inches.

Wow, since I last posted we shot up to 1.32 inches. Been coming down heavily.

Yep, roughly same. Been coming down very steadily now since about 7:15 (I woke up at 6:30).

Half an inch down by me already.

Really putting the ‘spaghetti’ in ‘spaghetti plot.’

Do what I do and start appreciating liquid snow! We get lots of that!

Regarding Gunung Agung and the 1960’s: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/10379/2019/ “We followed the estimated emission profiles and assumed for the first eruption on 17 March an injection rate of 4.7 Tg SO2 and 2.3 Tg SO2 for the second eruption on 16 May. ” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_1500–1999 The 1960’s had a tight clustering of VEI 4 level events, though not traditionally capable of a climate impact individually, this temporal clustering around Agung almost certainly added to the overall SO2 / volcanic forcing for this decade. The 20/21 eruption of Soufriere at VEI 4 level ejected about .4Tg/Mt of SO2. Replicate that a few more times and add on the end of a significant VEI 5 (Agung) and it sounds to me like the 60’s had considerable volcanic forcing in the mix.

Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands.

Two hour commute in to Hillside this morning on the Garden State Shartway. Thanks perfectly timed rain to make for an insufferable drive… After 12 years of doing this I think I’m ready to move back north (wife and I lived in North Brunswick before moving to the TR / Manchester area). @bluewaveI think I’m going to be following in your footsteps man.

Also made it to 52 this AM. Beautiful weather.

Come to where I am on the northern edge of the pine barrens and get your fill of wasps and European Hornets. They’re all over my property, was stung by a Paper wasp last week.

“And what are your credentials again?” ” I post on AmericanWX, the foremost gathering of meteorological minds in America!” (only half kidding ❤️)

Not gonna lie, even though it’s meaningless in September hearing about a -PNA spike is like triggering PTSD for me. Being that this is NJ/NY, can’t we find someone to just kill it? Somebody’s gotta know a guy who knows a guy, right?

Still too early to be fully declarative but it seems to be quite a long shot. I’d be more concerned in Maine or Cape Cod, or more likely Atl Canada. I’m definitely following every update though, I just don’t see how it does a classic coast rake without some big changes to the set up.

Got down to 51 this morning, impressive.

Laughing, thank you!

Swamp ass. I even shave my ass to help combat the never ending battle with swamp ass in NJ CFa subtropical summers. I vastly prefer the dry, frozen tundra-ass one gets in a proper winter over the wet, humid subtropical marshland of summer.

Lived in North Brunswick at the time. Irene was kind of a shitshow. Rode the storm out at my sister’s house in northern Toms River with my parents, and I remember it taking hours to get home back to NB with my girlfriend (now wife).

Just got stung by a wasp . Little menace must’ve landed on my back while I took the trash out. Came inside, at least a couple mins later I felt something crawling on my back. Reached to it instinctually and immediately felt the sharp sting right through my shirt, and then it somehow stung my hand between my fingers too before falling on the floor… Good sized wasp, red and yellow, super ugly. Never been stung by one before and I have a huge welt, back feels like it’s on fire. Can’t lay down. Meh/10 do not recommend.

Yup, living near the beach is beautiful. My parents live in Seaside Park. Bought a house in the 70’s here for like 70k at the time. They’re from Middlesex but then moved to Monmouth when they had me, and I got to grow up spending my summers in SSP surfing and whatnot. They were very lucky in Sandy!

Where are you from originally man?

I’m SO hyped to be in here with you guys late fall and winter again. Even when it’s a shitshow (especially when?), this place is always amusing. And genuinely AmericanWX has one of the smartest groups of individuals I’ve ever interacted with online. Let’s get that snow this year, but hey at least the company ain’t bad either.

So I think it’s extremely fascinating, but not something I’m intimately familiar with. I’m playing catch up to all of you regarding teleconnection meteorology. I still need to look into what we discussed and the paper you sent me, but it’s definitely intriguing to me. You know, I’m so used to looking into the large events that it’s easy to pass up clusters of smaller events, and 2008-2009 had a significant cluster of VEI 4 eruptions between .1 - 1 cubic kilometers (Okmok, Chaiten, Kasatochi, and Sarychev Peak, with Eyllafjallajökull occurring in 2010 which was a very ash rich but relatively small VEI 4). Honestly 2008-2011 was a very active period volcanically, including 2011’s Puyehue Cordon Calle eruption (my forum avatar, GORGEOUS eruption) which is commonly referenced as a baseline VEI 5 but IMO is better categorized as a high end VEI 4, but that is semantic as the difference between .9 cubic kilometers and 1 is negligible. I’m going to look further into this, thanks for mentioning. Edit: One area of interest to me for clues is the Little Ice Age. It is commonly referenced that volcanism played a large role in driving this period (along with the Maunder Minimum, perhaps agricultural factors I’ve read, etc), but we know that typically even very large eruptions only impact the climate for several years. Certainly not decades to centuries. While it’s true there were many VEI6 and large 5’s throughout this period, along with Tambora’s VEI 7 (and the Samalas VEI 7 in the 13th century which was basically one island over from Tambora, interestingly), this really wasn’t anything too unusual. Every thousand years will see 2-3 VEI 7 or borderline 7’s, on average. You’ll get something like 2-4 VEI 6’s or borderline 6’s per century. The LIA had big volcanism, but there’s always big volcanism lurking just outside the timespan of a human life. There had to be self reinforcing positively interfering mechanisms at play throughout this period, possibly a cooling of the North Atlantic along with long stretches of -NAO/AO cooling North America and Europe? While glaciers advanced in many locations throughout the LIA, I still understand it to be a regional phenomenon. Just a thought that came to mind based on your comment. Volcanism plays an enormous role in the ebb and flow between hothouse and stadial climate states as well, with ‘flood basalts’ being one of the main drivers of paleoclimate hothouses. But these eruptions are on a scale that is unfathomable over long periods of time (100,000+ cubic kilometers over thousands of years), and occur with many 10’s of millions of years between. They’re also more common when the continents are in a conjoined state as it helps build the pressure needed to contain a mantle plume and allow an eruption that size to occur. I digress , the point is simply that volcanism and earth’s climate are highly linked throughout time. And I think it’s certainly possible there’s small scale stuff happening (ie teleconnection forcing) like what you’re touching on.