Volcanic Winter

Personally, I dislike the drama and prefer the objective analysis that makes this place so spectacularly engaging. No reason to “fight” or spar with one another over differences of opinion. I rarely see what I would actually consider trolling like on the kind of message forums I grew up on, this place is honestly pretty amazing from that perspective. We need to try our best not take umbrage with the analysis of others because it conflicts with our emotions / desires, I would argue that’s not in the spirit of this forum. So many broadly intelligent people here posting their genuine interpretations of an enormous spread of data is going to yield disagreement, it’s the nature of the beast on a science forum. In short, I think we all just need some damn snow . Until then, there’s really no reason to be at each other’s throats. There’s no singular way to interpret the entirety of the data that this place regularly parses.

It is somewhat odd to me certain how individuals have difficulty grasping the magnitude of change here. It’s very evidently substantial. It’s not about being pessimistic, just recognition of things that have already demonstrably happened. The LIA ended in 1850 and yet the period after was still substantially colder than today. There were always warm years here and there, less snowy and more snowy winters. But both the magnitude of and frequency of warmth right now appears unprecedented. At least from temperature data I’ve reviewed. I do find that upsetting. Not much I or anyone can do about it, but it sucks. With that said, we can still have cold. Last Christmas was frigid and I found it very impressive. I averaged 36 degrees for Dec at my house despite the early month warmth. Not bad, but not really holding a candle compared to cold Dec of the past. And while true we don’t really need sustained arctic cold to snow especially as climo continues to improve, I’ll always take it and roll the dice. I believe there’s correlation anyway that our snowiest winters tend to be colder on average than the warmest, which of course makes sense. But suggests we do need to eventually see some cold show up (and hopefully it does in Jan / Feb) to see a bigger winter. Not optimistic or pessimistic on the rest of this winter, just hoping we can get our chances and at least have a few fun events. About all I can ask for. Also, as a bit of a thought exercise it absolutely blows my mind that the terminus of a giant glacier used to exist near NYC today - only thousands of years ago which is a geologic week. It’s also wild to me how well humans endured the harsh Pleistocene when it was well and truly cold everywhere. I believe the Holocene has already continued just about longer than the other interstadials (interglacials) on average, and without intervention perhaps the LIA may have marked the beginning of the slide into the next proper stadial (heavy speculation but interesting food for thought I’ve read elsewhere; it wouldn’t have been a straight shot descent, just up and down periods that begin to average more and more down with time).

The triple phase of that storm was noted to potentially have had some influence from Pinatubo’s atmospheric impacts via disrupted jet patterns (more of an indirect effect, if at all). There’s a reference on the main wiki page for the 93 Storm though it’s generally pretty broad and nonspecific. Again more the domain of people here who know atmospheric physics but I suppose the thinking is that large sulfurous / ash laden eruptions can lead to unusual / disrupted jet patterns that can increase the odds of something like the 93 superstorm happening. Always thought that interesting even if difficult to conclusively link.

I was alive for 93 but have no clear memories of it or anything prior to Jan ‘96. Not a bad first snow memory, though. Definitely one of the early events in my life that set me onto the path of lifelong love / appreciation of earth sciences. I remember renting those old VHS compilation tornado videos around that time and being amazed.

Help Wanted: Cold air in NYC metro area. Must be available 7 days a week, but especially prior to unsettled weather (must be available during bad weather, 1/2 pay for leaving early the day after). Temps over 40 need not apply. Salary commensurate to producing 10/1 ratios or better.

What does a standing wave look like on the charts? Is it just when the propagation of the wave stagnates in one phase? Still learning all of this, thanks.

Unusual larger explosive event from Marapi today (not to be confused with Mt Merapi). This volcano doesn’t normally do eruptions like this, large for the volcano and notable on a yearly basis, but not large large. https://watchers.news/2023/12/03/high-level-eruption-at-marapi-volcano-ash-to-15-km-50-000-feet-a-s-l-indonesia/ Very photogenic eruption column.

Yeah, I enjoy seeing them as well. In Florida.

BRB moving to Yellowknife.

I’m still blown away by the Xmas cold wave last year, that was incredibly impressive in the NYC area. I bottomed out around 7, granted I’m further south and I believe was just outside of the coldest air. But that alone was remarkable. We can get cold and I would never argue we can’t. However, it does seem like a recurring issue lately (which is anecdotal, not data, and has no future implication - to be specific) where the cold we do get is very short lived and followed by immediate warm ups to significant AN departures. When was the last true multi week arctic outbreak in the northeast, you know the kind where the news runs constant “the polar vortex has arrived!” headlines? Late 2010’s I think? Lastly, I know consistent cold does not always equal snowy as periods within the 70’s and 80’s would attest. However, Bluewave also showed good data last year I believe where the average temperature in the NYC metro for DJF does show correlation with snow totals. I don’t remember the thresholds but when the average temp climbed above it, our snow totals plummet. This of course makes sense. I think some other members did similar for other eastern cities, apologies if I’m confusing anyone up or misremembering who posted what, you guys post so many amazing data dumps across the eastern sub forums it can be hard to remember specifically. Of course for a significant single storm it doesn’t matter if we’re in deep arctic air before or after, it’s just more of an overview of the winter as a whole and how our snowier winters tended to be from a temp perspective. That info I find fascinating and meaningful. We don’t need major BN anomalies for a good snowstorm here, but I’ll always take the cold and then roll the dice. At least then that’s one failure mode abated.

Thank you, Don. The detail and thoughtfulness of your write-ups is always super appreciated and insightful.

I’m not expecting anything of note within the next two weeks, but I wouldn’t completely close the door on the back half of the month. Time and time again the look changes as we move up in time, though yes it has to be acknowledged in recent winters that often works against us by going in the wrong direction. With that said, I’m relatively uninvested the next couple weeks but will circle back and hope for some improvements going into the holiday and immediately behind. Stay positive, but be realistic IMHO. Best approach. I would be flabbergasted if DJF is anywhere close to as awful as last year in total - even if we end up punting the majority of Dec.

51 here. Honestly beautiful, though I’m pulling for a return to BN temps as we head out the other end of the warm up. Unbelievably gorgeous sunset here right now.

Not seeing anything on my earthquake tracker, but this app isn’t 100% definitive / accurate. I’ll look into it more, but if you have any other info let me know. Update: Nothing on USGS tracker

A very basic method of looking at this would be to go here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_1500–2000 And cross reference with high resolution temperature data / plots. Focus on VEI 5 and up events, or tightly clustered series of eruptions that make this list. Volcanic aerosols (sulfur, ash) “decay” out of the stratosphere in 1-3 years, the atmospheric loading of larger events could take a bit longer. And periods like the LIA were though to have had additional self-reinforcing mechanisms that protracted cooling episodes beyond the usual 1-3 years (I’ve heard things like sharp cooling of the North Atlantic SST’s helped to reinforce and extend volcanic cooling episodes, as one example) This is a super complex subject and I haven’t the time at the moment to dive deeper, but not all large explosive events impart a detectable climate impact commensurate to the size of the event, or even at all in some instances. Novarupta and Krakatoa were similarly sized and were 3x+ larger than Pinatubo but aren’t commonly believed to have caused a major climate impact. Krakatau especially still did, and I believe both were sandwhiched inside cold decades (from memory), but Pinatubo’s climate forcing was more pronounced AFAIK. And again this is getting into territory where you guys are better equipped than I to discuss / debate, but I believe ENSO at the time of the eruption or immediately after can also have an impact on how significant the volcanic forcing is. Especially regionally. I believe Pinatubo’s impact was muted in the northeast US due to ENSO, despite having a very significant global downward surface temp forcing. Very complex subject with a ton of info, data, and theorizing to dive into. To me, it’s one of the most fascinating subjects out there (surprise! ). Volcanism drives climate to an extent that most people are simply unaware of, especially as you go back into geologic time and focus on abrupt “state” changes to paleoclimate. Look at the largest eruptions of all (flood basalts that last millenia), and also the Wilson cycle of sea floor spreading - how CO2 is naturally sequestered out of and also expelled into the atmosphere in varying proportions, which in turn forces the planet into and out of both broader hothouse and icehouse regimes. Check out this excellent article which touches on this: https://www.volcanocafe.org/white-christmas/

What’s the longest <1” for Boston? I can’t imagine it’s more than close to a year? Actually have no idea and am curious.

25 here right now. Minimum for the month is 22.5 on 11/25. Minimum for 11/2022 was 18.

It’s the scale. Most laypeople have no idea how ridiculously, unfathomably massive explosive eruptions can get. Mt St Helen’s was a baby burp in comparison. Doesn’t even rate. The Toba supereruption 75kya was as much as 4,500x larger than St Helens… ——— Anddddd back to the weather! Sorry to derail guys.

2-4 per millenium. 2x per thousand years is the most commonly cited figure, but IMHO it’s a poorly constrained figure with a very low absolute sample size. If you expand the field to ‘borderline VEI 7’ events, or eruptions with total eruptive volume around 75-90 cubic kilometers (ten shy of a VEI 7 and functionally indistinguishable), it’s closer to at least 4 per thousand years. Do be mindful of if literature speaks in terms of DRE (dense rock equivalent) or tephra volume, sometimes it’s not clear which figure a paper is referencing. It varies but generally tephra volume is 2.5x the DRE, and for purposes of VEI ratings you normally look at the bulk tephra volume. 1000CE to present you had Samalas / Rinjani in 1257 (a bit larger than Tambora even), Tambora in 1815, and possibly the poorly constrained and still debatable Kuwae eruption in the 1450’s, which was possibly very, very large. Going back into the 10th century you have the Millenium eruption of Changbaishan / Paekdu Mountain which was a borderline 6-7. Very tricky to answer. Different sources will offer different opinions. Takeaway: they’re really not that rare. The next could be right around the corner… Don’t forget in 1808/9 we had an unknown massive eruption (or series of clustered very large eruptions) just before Tambora, with its own massive sulfur spike showing up in the ice cores. All part of why the 1810’s were one of the coldest decades in human history. Talk about improbable, but speaks to how potentially frequent large eruptions can be (frequent on a century to century basis).

For reference, Tambora was as much as ~15x larger than Pinatubo, itself a massive eruption and low end VEI 6 (and 10x larger than Mt St Helen’s!). Tambora was unfathomably large, especially on the scale of a single human lifespan. None of us know any volcanism that hangs in that ballpark, and it would appear absolutely apocalyptic to us today. It would also cause immeasurable human suffering, so it’s tough for me to ‘wish for’, despite my obvious passion and scientific curiosity. Tambora’s ashfall and pyroclastic flows were cataclysmic. There’s really no other adjective that’s impactful enough there. @Dark Star Probably the red/yellow sulfur/ash glow low on the horizon making something appear that it was on fire? My best guess. The skies all over were absolutely ‘perturbed’ for some time after the eruption.

I never heard this before, super interesting! Yeah Krakatau 1883 was an absolutely enormous eruption, over 3x larger than Pinatubo 1991. The amount of particulate matter and gas dispersing around the globe in the aftermath of that eruption would’ve been immense. The skies after were immortalized in various artwork from that period (“The Scream”). Cool, nice find!

Brought out my glacier themed Captain Willard Seiko which is my defacto winter watch. Time to get some snow.

23 here currently.

I’ve been super busy the past week, would you mind summarizing what’s off right now? Haven’t really been able to start diving into the models and teles consistently yet. I do recall hearing the -PDO looked like it was spiking again? Thanks man.

Heard the MJO should be rounding into 7-8-1 toward the back end of Dec?