Volcanic Winter

And probably coldest for a while?

22F, coldest of fall / winter so far here, finally. Still only just though, my min for November was 22.3. Edit: 21F now @ 6am.

Made it down to 26 this AM for a low. Looks like tomorrow AM will be the coldest of this brief stretch?

Grrr WOOF WOOF! Grrr bow wow wow wow, grrrrrrr woof, woof!

Just happened to take a peak at temps over in Beijing… That’s pretty wild. I don’t know much about their normal temps, but I know they sit at 39N and that’s pretty damn cold.

I’m taking a trip to NE for my birthday in Feb. We kept it quick and simple and went to Danbury last year. Did some beautiful hikes, though in 50 degrees and with bare ass ground which was depressing. This year I’m looking for more of a sure thing to step into some snow, so I think we’re going to go up to Vermont. Still planning things out but should be a good time. I used to snowboard but had a major back injury a decade ago, so I stick to hiking these days.

I do appreciate your unflappable optimism, dude. Excited to (hopefully) vibe with you in a storm thread or three!

I can’t even imagine what the 2015 blitz was like for you guys. 2013-2015 was fantastic even down here, but mind boggling up your way. I actually had pack and retention through both winters down here living near the coast, it was wonderful. Though the snow totals weren’t the extravaganza you had, the persistent cold kept it around and the whole winter had that enjoyable kind of wintry vibe. But yeah, I’m in awe of 2015 up your ways. Unreal.

Understood, thank you for all the work and effort you put into your blog. It’s really outstanding work.

I was in North Brunswick for that latter stretch living in a ground floor apartment with my then girlfriend, now wife. That stretch was absolutely bonkers, Boxing Day put snow drifts almost all the way to the top of the front door. And it was just constant shoveling with my car getting plowed in and buried multiple times… was a trip! Dec 09 was also insane in Long Branch while I was living near school (MU). I have to find my pics of that storm, it was so fun.

Agreed. That’s what @40/70 Benchmarkis thinking, roughly. We see improvements in Jan (still a ‘thaw’) and then a solid Feb with periods of blocking. His blog / forecast was really outstanding with tons of analysis and consideration towards a ton of factors. I think he pegged NYC for 25-35 this season overall. Of course, I’m hoping he’s onto something!

@snowman19 How do you feel about January and perhaps February? Genuinely interested in your take. Do you anticipate improvement to our snow chances or do you think it’ll continue to be a struggle? I’ve followed your thoughts in the ENSO thread but was curious if based on current guidance you have any other insights. Thanks man.

Looks good, I’ll pass it along. To my friend. Thanks.

Has anyone ever purchased a snow making cannon thingy for at home personal use? Asking for a friend.

More like warm turkey.

I feel attacked. I thought this was a safe space for snow addicts?

I’m sure rains to Quebec precedes all our best winter periods! Nah, I’m staying optimistic that January will be more agreeable. But I don’t see anything realistically happening until after NYE and likely then some.

Yeah Icelandic fissure eruptions can be pretty insane in their opening phase when the pressure is at its peak. The Laki eruption had fissures extending over 80km with jets shooting up over a thousand feet at least. But that’s the top end of the scale and thus is very rare. This is big for a mantle fed eruption, the larger fissure events happen from rifts formed by the central volcanoes where magma can accumulate in a chamber for centuries to millennia. 2014’s Holuhraun eruption of Bararbunga is an example, as is the Laki eruption (which was over 10x larger). This was also reminiscent of a Mauna Loa eruption, which is impressive because Mauna Loa does very intense fissures. I was really sad last night because the initial news wasn’t great and there was grave concern the lava would swamp Grindavik, but fortunately the top 3/4ths of the fissure, the lava was flowing away. The southernmost section had lava flowing in the direction of the town apparently but the output there was low, and has died down. They’re very lucky! The bad news is that this is going to keep happening now for decades as the Reykjanes volcanic fields have awoken for the start of a new cycle of eruptions. The last Reykjanes cycle was in the Middle Ages, so this is pretty amazing to be alive during this.

The amount of data, facts, recollection, and analyses posted here daily has continually blown my mind since the day I signed up. Probably why half my phone browser is AmericanWX tabs and I spend more time on here than I care to admit .

Correct. You’d need something Laki sized from the 1780’s, which had its own explosive component in there as well. 5x the total SO2 release of Pinatubo and caused significant climate disruption (though not all of that would’ve breached the tropopause). This won’t be that by any stretch (Laki was only one of three such enormous Icelandic fissure eruptions known in the entire Holocene), though it’s more intense than the three Fagradalsfjall eruptions so far since 2020. To be clear (I tend to wax a bit on comparisons), this won’t have a climate impact whatsoever.

Forgive the janky way I’m sharing this: https://imgur.com/a/v2vL1fm Edit: Same video, de-jankified:

@Stormlover74 Very bad news, that’s a massive and exceptionally powerful fissure. Much moreso than Fagradalsfjall. Those central jets are enormous and that looks like a very high effusion rate. Not good for Grindavik, Blue Lagoon, etc. Gave very little warning. A couple hours of swarming and a 4.2 quake, then boom. The dike formed a month ago and then activity waned. The main rock breaking / fracturing had completed and the dike was in a pre-eruptive position. The problem is they couldn’t tell if the supply from below had turned off or not. If it did, there wouldn’t be an eruption now and that magma would’ve stayed in a “loaded gun” position for a while longer. Instead, it seems the dike sat there and slowly, relatively silently continued to pressurize until the final swarm broke through the remaining section of crust. The powerful fountains are the end result. Not a tourist eruption, this is pretty bad for them. I’ve been to Grindavik several times and it was already extensively damaged by the seismic activity (graben formation) last month. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/reykjanes/news/229037/Reykjanes-volcano-update-Eruption-seems-very-powerful-scientist-calls-it-worse-case.html Edit: From RUV.is (official source) Ármann Höskuldsson, volcanologist, has told RÚV that the crack currently seems to stretch to the north, and this means that the lava does not go down into Grindavík. He says one fissure has already worn off and another fissure has opened a little further north. He considers this to be three to four times bigger than the previous eruption on the peninsula.

At that point, isn’t it just sort of ‘hedging against snow,’ and thus not actually a forecast?

We had a couple big gusts that woke us up early AM, but that’s not surprising given location. Overall didn’t seem too bad here. Looks like the brunt of the winds was E LI into NE.